FOMC Rules Apply

Relatively quiet
yet profitable trade has been the theme of this post-election, pre-FOMC morning
as the market handed short-term traders
yet another gap reversal opportunity, with a beauty of a one-minute trigger
which provided ES traders with up to 7 points in early opportunity. Those using
three-minute post-open triggers had about half the potential. 

Our 13-minute uptrend support provided yet again excellent resistance and exit
guides on the shorts, as well as a backdrop for traders choosing to reverse or
trade solely on the long side, using the tailwinds of yesterday’s closing 13,
60, and daily uptrends, trades which provided similar profit potential.

While I don’t normally post one- or three-minute charts in this column as they
go stale the minute the virtual ink is dry, I can’t describe the morning action
any better than the picture below which includes several setups outlined in
my video and
course. And while
choosing the specific trigger interval reflects individual trader preference,
one advantage of FOMC mornings is that the general expectation of rangebound
action can tilt the scales in the direction of using the smaller triggers to
avoid paying up to half a move for confirmation.

Heading into the afternoon, FOMC rules apply which is to avoid trading the
immediate post-announcement action which is generally both high-risk and
low-probability, and await for our standard setups and triggers.

With respect to a longer term daily or weekly reversal from these lofty heights
— which we’ll certainly be eyeing as we approach longer-term downtrend supports
and a plethora of overhead resistance — you hopefully know my stance on any
longer-term market reversal by now, which is a required loss of hourly uptrend
support, preferably against the backdrop of diverging price and momentum, should
we climb further. 

And while many market analysts are calling for such a reversal with as much
conviction as Terry McAuliffe had in predicting a Democratic landslide last
night (not a partisan comment, just a fact), I’ll look to let the market decide
when a high-probability, low-risk entry presents itself and then let
it
play arbitrator.

ES (S&P)         
Wednesday November 6, 2002  11:15 A.M. ET            
NQ
(Nasdaq)


Moving Avg Legend:
5MA
15MA
60-Min 15MA

See
School and

Video
for Setups and Methodologies

Charts ©
2002 Quote LLC


Good Trading!


Don Miller

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