Friday’s Futures Setups
The
Dow lost 28 to
8201, the Nasdaq
fell 3 to 1384, and the S&P 500 dropped 1 to 868. This makes the indices
down three of the past four days. Crude topped $30/ barrel for the first time in
a week as a longer war looks like it may be in the cards.
Long
Candidates:
|
Contract
|
Setup
|
Direction
|
Trigger
|
| Heating Oil (HOK3) |
double bottom |
up | above Thursday’s high |
| Crude Oil ( CLK3 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
bounce | up | dips to 29.90, and above Thursday’s high |
Wheat
(
WK3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) triggered, and if you were very tight with your
stops, you bought lunch…maybe. Not a very good close today. We’ll revisit this
one soon.
Heating Oil (HOK3)
triggered after the double bottom. Crude
(
CLK3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is bouncing on news
of a potentially longer war and the Nigerian situation. The 50% retracement of
the last down move is the 31.50 area, which we could see.
Short
Candidates:
|
Contract
|
Setup
|
Direction
|
Trigger
|
| Cattle (LCJ3) |
overbought rally |
down | below Thursday’s low |
Cattle (LCJ3)
looks overbought, and may have made a mini double top at a .618 retracement.
Soy Meal
(
SMK3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) didn’t trigger, and went the other way.
The Canadian dollar
(
CDM3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is approaching its 3/7 high, which is
significant. More on this tomorrow.
Bonds
(
USM3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and 10-year notes
(
TYM3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) both are pullbacks
from lows. I’d like to see these both a little more overbought before shorting.
I keep thinking we’re going to see a nice trend move out of Cocoa
(
CCK3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) but since late February it’s been a chop-fest.
At first I thought I was seeing things, but it sure looks like Gold
(
GCJ3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) could drop, while Crude could rise — they’re in disconnect.
Watch for this one.
Please
note that while there are strong trends, one bar or a series of bars forming a
setup can sometimes indicate a contra move for the next day. This contra move
may not be long-lasting — maybe only for a day or two. Trading with the main
trend is always the highest probability trade. Be
advised that some futures contracts are prone to gaps.
Remember,
use stops on all your trades.