Friday’s Options Alerts…
Stocks were knocked down today as they were hit
by a barrage of economic and corporate news. Retail sales fell by a
wider-than-expected 3.7%, compared with an estimate of 2.8%. This marks the largest
monthly decrease in over nine years. On a couple of brighter notes, weekly
jobless claims slid 86,000 to 394,000. This also marks the largest drop in nine
years. Also, the November PPI index fell 0.6%, which was more than the expected
0.3% drop. This was largely helped by the decrease in energy prices,
which suggests that consumers will have more money to spend on other goods. Lucent Technologies
(
LU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Ciena
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) came out
with profit warnings. The VIX
(
$VIX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) opened near
the halfway point of its range and closed in the upper half of its range. This
intraday shift in sentiment
suggests that fear is heading back up. No CVR signals were triggered today. The VXN
(
$VXN.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) opened near
the lows of the day and closed near its high. This intraday shift in sentiment is also telling us that fear is
increasing. The VXN did not trigger any CVR signals either.
Points of Significance:
HotJobs.com
(
HOTJ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) rocketed almost 60% higher
today as they announced that Yahoo!
(
YHOO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) made a competing offer to buy
HotJobs in a deal worth $436 million. This tops an earlier offer made by TMP
Worldwide
(
TMPW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) worth $430 million. HotJob’s implied volatility has
dropped to a new low. This suggests that its options are getting cheap.
Macromedia
(
MACR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) dropped over 30% today on over five times its average
trading volume as it warned that it will miss third quarter earnings and will
not turn a profit this year. The stock did manage to close above its 200-day
moving average by the close. Ciena
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) fell over 16% today on
over triple its average trading volume. The company announced that it
expected to incur losses next quarter vs. an expected five-cent profit.
Williamette Industries’
(
WLL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) implied volatility has gone to a new high.
Weyerhaeuser
(
WY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) increased its bid from $55 per share from $50.
| Volatility Index |
Close | Net Change |
Signals/Direction | % Above/Below 10 Day Moving Average |
Significance |
| VIX | 26.70 | UP 1.18 | NONE | 4.26 % Above | Not At Extreme |
| VXN | 52.15 | UP 4.06 |
NONE | 5.29 % Below |
Not At Extreme |
Abnormal Options Volume With Price Movement
— Abnormal options volume (calls and puts) with stock price movement
| Name | Symbol | Net % Change |
Volume | Avg. Volume |
| HotJobs.com | HOTJ | + 59.19 | 788 | 263 |
| Macromedia | MACR | – 30.03 | 1728 | 460 |
| Ciena | CIEN | – 16.86 | 79810 | 19606 |
| PMC Sierra | PMCS | – 16.52 | 13310 | 5438 |
| Applied Micro Circuits | AMCC | – 14.87 | 12502 | 4648 |
| Identix, Inc. | IDNX | + 12.61 | 4856 | 503 |
Stocks With Biggest Spikes in Implied
Volatility — Stocks with biggest increases or decreases in implied
volatility compared to previous day
Spike Up
| Name | Symbol | IV | Previous IV |
High IV |
Low IV |
| Williamette Industries | WLL | 59.8 | 45.3 | 44.7 | 19.3 |
| TyCom Ltd. | TCM | 37.1 | 29.4 | 94.6 | 31.9 |
| Immunex | IMNX | 79.1 | 63.2 | 78.9 | 57.3 |
| Tyco International | TYC | 38.9 | 31.6 | 53.3 | 28.7 |
| Westvaco Corp. | W | 43.7 | 37.3 | 47.1 | 29.9 |
| Macromedia | MACR | 50.4 | 42.2 | 49.9 | 25.3 |
Spike Down
| Name | Symbol | IV | Previous IV |
High IV |
Low IV |
| HotJobs.com | HOTJ | 60 | 110.9 | 106.6 | 65.1 |
| Plum Creek Timber |
PCL | 22.4 | 29.9 | 46.2 | 25.6 |
| Fidelity National Financial |
FNF | 38.9 | 44.9 | 49.5 | 42.2 |
| El Paso Energy |
EPG | 62.7 | 71.8 | 54.4 | 34.5 |
| Heinz (H.J.) | HNZ | 23.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 | 17.3 |
| Compass Bancshares |
CBSS | 25.5 | 28.9 | 34.9 | 25.2 |
Please use stops on every trade!