Futures Point To A Flat Opening
METALS
GOLD:
With bonds higher and the Dollar weak that could yield some long interest in
gold but we fear that the market will remain vulnerable to long liquidation.
With at least 100,000 longs still in position and the “investment
zing” for gold being tempered daily by the stock market performance, we
have to think that the bears have a slight edge over the bulls. Fortunately for
the bull camp in gold, open interest has declined and that should take the edge
off the liquidation threat.
SILVER:
If gold is vulnerable, that could leave silver vulnerable. We have to think that
silver managed to correct its overbought status much more effectively than gold
did, as silver open interest is near a low while gold’s is pretty high.
Favorable overnight equity market news might help silver but only if gold action
is muted and quiet.
PLATINUM:
We still see platinum as vulnerable from a technical perspective but with some
potential from the fundamental perspective. With the favorable software company
earnings in
Japan
overnight and the improved outlook for the key Japanese phone company, one might
expect a slightly improved jewelry demand outlook. A softer dollar and stronger
yen might also help platinum.Â
COPPER:
Chinese copper was slightly higher overnight and the Press attributed the rally
to fund buying interest. While it would seem that the equity market will start
the session higher and that the outlook for the Japanese economy is improved, we
are not sure if that will wake up copper for a strong rally. The market seems to
have lost some speculative interest, but with the recent price rise some longs
might be a little more anxious to get back into position.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to Â
4:15 AM
 Â
:CRUDE -14Â ,HEAT-27Â
,UNGA-21 Â The energy complex appears to be limping into the end of
the week. Prices appear to be poised to drop back to slightly lower levels and a
return to this week’s lows would not be that surprising.
NATURAL
GAS
All that
has to be said is that the weekly injection was the biggest ever at 125 bcf and
that rationalizes the washout. Because the small spec position was close to a
record “long position”, its understandable that prices caved in so
aggressively.
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to Â
4:15 AM
:BONDS +16 The bond market
comes into the session this morning poised for more contract highs. In fact,
there was a private prediction out this morning that suggested 10 year yields
might be able to fall to 2.5%. With the stock market possibly opening higher and
favorable earnings news flowing in
Japan
, the bonds could have been
weaker this morning.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to 4:15 AM:S&P-140 DOW -10 NIKKEI +62 FTSE +6Â The stock market
was showing positive signs overnight off some favorable equity market
developments in Japan but that positive momentum wasn’t significant, nor was it
sustainable. In fact, the Nikkei saw gain on the session and made those gains on
a massive volume of 2 billion shares. Apparently Oracle of Japan posted some
favorable earnings news and the market seemed to want to upgrade the most widely
watched Japanese telephone stock.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
DOLLAR:
The currency comment is delayed and will be sent soon.Â
EURO:Â
The currency comment is delayed and will be sent soon.
YEN:
The currency comment is delayed and will be sent soon.
POUND:
The currency comment is delayed and will be sent soon.
CANADIAN:
The currency comment is delayed and will be sent soon.