Futures Point To A Flat Opening
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -7
We have to think that the prelude to the 9/11 anniversary gave bonds some
support over the last two session but it would also appear that analysts
expectations for the initial claims report this morning flipped around yesterday
afternoon. In other words, rumors were circulating that instead of declining by
10,000 to 13,000 claims, the trade seemed to be factoring in a rise of 8,000 to
12,000 claims. Seeing the claims decline by 13,000 is considered a critical
development, as that puts the total claims reading back below 400,000, which is
generally regarded as a key pivot point.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM:S&P+240
DOW +26 NIKKEI -309 FTSE +12Â The stock market used the excuse of the 9/11
anniversary, to take profits yesterday and with a slight tech downgrade thrown
on top of the 9/11 anxiety, there was certainly enough fuel to put prices down
moderately. While we have not seen the catalyst for a strong bottoming today, we
have a gut feeling that the stock market will attempt to rally following the
moments of silence early this morning. However, in order to sustain a John Wayne
type rally effort, Wall Street will have to see something positive from the US
initial claims reading.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
While the Euro recently climbed back above 40 day moving average level, it
certainly hasn’t managed much in the way of follow through. The next resistance
zone in the December Euro comes in at 112.48 but a key failure would take place
if the Euro slid back below 111.33.
YEN:
As mentioned before there are complaints today that even the Japanese are
benefiting from unfair exchange rates and that could mean a little less
assistance from the US Treasury in the Bank of Japan efforts to deflate the
value of the Yen. Short-term technicals are in a sell mode in the Yen, with
first support coming in down at 85.32 in the December contract.
SWISS:
So far, the Swiss has been unable to sustain above a critical moving average but
with short term technicals still in a buy mode we have to favor the up side.
Moving average resistance comes in at 72.82 today.
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POUND:
The Pound made a strong bid overnight possibly because of London jobs readings
and possibly because the trade expects a disappointing US claims report.
Short-term techs in the Pound also remain in a buy mode and could have at least
another 2 or 3 days before being considered excessively overbought. CANADIAN
DOLLAR: The Canadian failed to make an impressive upside bid, in the face of
initial Dollar weakness. Therefore, we have to fear a near term slide in the Dec
Canadian down to trend support of 72.43.
METALS
GOLD:
While traders in Sydney and Tokyo showed some long interest in gold, traders in
Shanghai were not similarly inclined, as Chinese gold closed slightly lower.
While the Dollar is largely unchanged in the overnight action it did manage to
forge a new low for the move and its short-term technicals are pointing to more
losses ahead. So far the new Bin Laden tapes haven’t had too much of an impact
on gold prices.
SILVER:
The silver market is showing no corrective tilt and continues to hold right on
an upside breakout point on the charts. While the chart setup is bullish, it
could be a double edge sword if December silver sees a decline back below 520.
The last two sessions have shown a divergence between gold and silver
fundamentals and for silver the action is really impressive.
PLATINUM:
A violation of moving average and trend line support would seem to hint at a
failure ahead. In our opinion, for platinum to break down and stay down it could
take a partially discouraging macro economic outlook but considering the overly
long status of a thinly traded market, one can’t rule out a temporary bout of
aggressive stop loss selling. Â
Unlike
platinum, the copper market managed to recoil up and away from critical channel
support and moving average levels. Chinese COPPER: copper futures were higher
overnight giving copper a slight assist in the coming action. However, in order
to return to the top of the recent consolidation (up around 84) the market will
have to weave its way around the initial claims reading from the US and will
have to see the stock market shake off the recent corrective tilt and provide
positive leadership.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM Â
:CRUDE +6Â Â ,HEAT+27Â
,UNGA+23Â While the energy complex eventually managed to close the
session Wednesday firm there was certainly little initial reaction to the
massive declines in crude oil stocks. It is possible that the minor increases in
gasoline stocks, the sharp rise in distillates and the rise in the API refinery
rate, countervailed the shockingly large decline in crude oil stocks.
NATURAL
GAS
We are
not sure if natural gas rallied off speculation that Isabel will track toward
shipping regions in the Gulf of Mexico, or if the trade is factoring the
forecasts for the first cool front of the season. It is also possible that some
shorts decided to cover positions, ahead of the weekly inventory report,
especially since the early expectations were for moderately large injections.