Futures Point To A Flat Opening
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS +10
The bonds have managed to bounce right back to the recent highs, which is a
little surprising considering the attitude in the equity market. However, it
would seem like the BOJ is going to continue intervention efforts and that could
continue to provide a steady flow of buying in US Treasuries. Certainly the soft
Philly Fed survey shifted the pendulum back toward the bull camp around mid
session Thursday and that shows that the bull camp isn’t ready to give up
control of the market to the bears.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM:S&P-90Â
DOW -17 NIKKEI -94 FTSE -13Â The market continues to impress, as
gains continue to mount despite a lack of qualifying (bullish) numbers from the
US economy. In fact, some traders think that the market could go into a throttle
up move, as the herd looks ahead to the end of the quarter. Adding into the bull
equation are hopes that energy prices will continue to decline and with the US,
France and Germany seemingly cooperating and negotiating it is possible that the
UN could be running Iraq by the end of the year.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
As mentioned already, the G7 thinks that the Euro economy has turned the corner
and that should give the Euro an added lift. Following the weakness early in the
week, the Euro should be in a good technical position to soar with near term
upside targeting seen at 113.70. In fact, one might even project the December
Euro to rise to 115.00. We might also add that a significant liquidation in open
interest would seem to give further evidence that the Euro corrected its
overbought technical status, off the September rally and therefore the Euro
could really rise sharply, if the right set of fundamentals present themselves.
YEN:
The BOJ is apparently locked in a fierce battle and seems to be keeping the Yen
partially under wraps. Weak Japanese economic numbers will continue to have
little impact on the currency, as the focus is almost exclusively on what the
BOJ might do. Traders might begin to watch for big gains in US Treasuries, as a
confirmation of recent intervention efforts.
SWISS:
While the Swiss has missed most of the gains seen in other currencies against
the Dollar, it does appear to have the capacity to return to the top of the
recent consolidation up around 73.00. However, it could also remain mired in a
range of 71.90 and 73.00.
Â
POUND:
There is nothing unclear about the trend in the Pound and with the world
thinking the UK economy is strong enough to warrant higher interest rates, the
interest rate and economic differential favors even more gains in the Pound.
Near term upside targeting comes in just under the June consolidation at 163.02.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: Finally the Canadian has managed an upside breakout that looks
capable of extending. Near term upside projections are for a return to 74.00 and
an end to the beef export ban to the US, would certainly help to foster the
renewed upside thrust.
METALS
GOLD:
The gold market saw a little pressure Thursday because action in the US stock
market began to siphon off investors that were seeing the potential for greater
rates of return outside of the precious metals. A number of traders are
suggesting that end of quarter window dressing might step up to support gold
funds in the coming week. However, one has to watch the interplay between the
stock market and gold closely, as a significant expansion of optimism toward the
stock market could prompt a wholesale exodus from gold.
SILVER:
After a big range and a lower close the silver might be fighting a near term
liquidation tilt. Open interest remains very high and that could leave the
market vulnerable if those that were speculating on a squeeze, see that
potential reduced. On the other hand, seeing additional gains in open interest
could actually kick the squeeze into motion.
PLATINUM:
The platinum market continues to consolidate after the recent slide and enters
the session just under the old up trend channel support line of $699. Apparently
the rise in world equity prices has only served to deter the downside in
platinum, which means that platinum isn’t being driven by the hope for
increased physical demand. Platinum also has a pattern of lower highs and lower
lows, since the September highs and that hints at a near term bear trend.Â
Â
The
Chinese are still talking about a copper concentrate shortage and that has
served to bolster the bull trend. However, COPPER: weekly Shanghai copper stocks
rose by 1,347 tons, while copper on warrant rose by a surprising 8,818 tons. In
the near term, the supply issue should remain supportive for prices, as the LME
has continued the pattern of moderately large daily declined for most of the
last 3 weeks.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM Â
:CRUDE +3Â Â ,HEAT+33Â
,UNGA-36Â We are surprised that energy prices didn’t get hammered
Thursday, because the trade was picking up signs that the US was bargaining with
France and Germany  (which in effect is the UN) on a timetable to turn over
control of Iraq. We think a broad based coalition governing and protecting Iraqi
oil facilities would be significantly more effective and certainly cheaper to
the US taxpayer.
NATURAL
GAS
Not only
is the regular energy complex pressuring natural gas prices, but the rather
large injection weighed on prices. With the annual deficit narrowing to 336 bcf
the bear camp certainly maintains the edge.