Futures Point To A Slightly Stronger Open
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -11
It would seem like favorable macro economic reports from the Euro zone and
Germany combined with extremely impressive equity market action in Japan
overnight, to pressure US Treasuries into the opening this morning. With the Fed
meeting this afternoon, it would seem like the talking heads are more fixated on
when the Fed will be prepared to hike rates, instead of whether or not the
current situation warrants more concern to near term risks of deflation. In our
opinion, the Fed will more than likely not act, but should certainly give some
credence to the jobless recovery threat.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to 4:15 AM:S&P+180 DOW
+14Â NIKKEI +174 FTSE +11Â The
stock market continues to make the best out of the current situation, as the
regularly scheduled US economic information is disappointing and investors are
choosing to migrate to the sidelines. With the Fed meeting this afternoon, it is
possible that more investors migrate to the sidelines. However, it also seems
like the bull camp is attempting to factor in a minor chance of a US rate cut.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
With German confidence readings rising sharply, Euro-zone Industrial production
much stronger than expected, its understandable that the IMF thinks the Euro
will continue to rise. Therefore,
we are a little surprised that the Euro is weakening this morning. However, the
most important development overnight might have been IMF suggestions that the
ECB still has room to ease monetary policy. In fact, the ECB might see a rate
cut as a very beneficial move to deflate the currency and insure recovery. The
only thing is that the ECB hasn’t demonstrated much in the way of leadership,
they typically like “followship” to the US Fed. In the near term,
expect a downward track but a critical low to be forged quickly.
YEN:
Given the optimism toward the Japanese economy and the Nikkei, it should be
difficult for the BOJ to keep the Yen down. In fact, if the Dollar weren’t
strong this morning, we would expect the Yen to take out the September highs of
86.65.
SWISS:
Near term support should hold down around 71.90 but the current break should not
be a sustained washout. In fact, if the US Fed were to cut rates today, that
could forge a bottom in the Swiss.
Â
POUND:
A major reversal in the Pound overnight catches a number of recent longs in bad
positions. In the near term, the Pound could be set to slide to consolidation
support down around 157.72. CANADIAN DOLLAR: Coiling in the Canadian seems to
beg a major trend decision in the Canadian. We have to think that a key low is
about to be forged and that the pressure being applied by the US Dollar will run
its course in the action today.
METALS
GOLD:
The overnight action in gold should leave a positive bias for the US session.
Chinese gold prices were higher, while Japanese buyers were supposedly inspired
by a weaker Dollar. However, as we come into the US session this morning, the
Dollar seems to be higher on the session.
SILVER:
A slight upward bias was seen in overnight Asian action but with Comex silver
stocks increasing by +599,192 oz and now standing at 106.6 million ounces supply
isn’t exactly beneficial to the bull camp. Trend line support comes in at $5.07
whereas the middle of the channel comes in up at $5.246 basis the December
contract. Like gold, we get the sense that the silver market is positively
correlated with the stock market and the outlook for the US economy.
PLATINUM:
The platinum market remains on the rocks with trend line support violated with a
trade below $696. Some would already suggest that platinum has already violated
near term support. However, while the outlook toward the US economy is suspect,
the Euro zone, Germany and Japan have all posted favorable economic reports this
morning and are looking toward economic recovery. Therefore, platinum should
manage to hold the recent lows.Â
COPPER:
The copper market continues to respect the up trend channel as it managed to
respect the double bottom at 81.45. Chinese copper action was choppy showing a
lack of interest. Goldman Sachs suggested that North American metals demand
remains soft and that goes along with the recent disappointing numbers released
from the US.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM Â
:CRUDE +6Â Â ,HEAT+15Â
,UNGA+46Â While the market didn’t act to negatively in the face of
reports of large July crude oil imports to the US, it is a telling sign that
supply is flowing readily from Russia and Saudi Arabia. While the July import
tally was the one of the larger totals ever, the Russian import total was the
highest ever at 479,000 barrels per day.
NATURAL
GAS
The
natural gas market should continue to slide toward the July lows, unless the
trade catches support from the regular energy complex. In fact, we expect
January natural gas to slide to the July lows of 5.25 in the coming session,
especially with a more northerly track by the hurricane and cooler temps ahead.