Futures Point To A Slightly Stronger Open
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -8
Using December bonds, we would think that the highs Monday will serve as some
form of moderate resistance. In fact, we would define the range in December
bonds as 104-22 and 102-28. The range in December notes would seem to be 109-13
to 108-17.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to 4:15 AM:S&P+140 DOW
+2.3 NIKKEI +141 FTSE -7Â The Dow continues to outperform the rest of the
market, as it managed to rise to a 14 month high, while the S&P remains well
below the June and July peaks on the charts. Home Depot reported favorable
earnings this morning and that would seem to fan the bullish sentiment for
another session. In fact, Home Depot actually posted a 10% gain in second
quarter profit and that might be enough of a headline story to spark another
wave of moderate buying in the broad market today.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
Euro zone industrial production declined and since expectations were for a 0.3%
gain, it is clear that the recovery isn’t on track. In fact, we would even
suggest that CPI readings were soft, indicating an ongoing risk of deflation.
Supposedly some economists think that the drought will serve to firm up Euro
zone prices but that isn’t exactly a healthy form of price support. In the
near term, enough technical levels have been violated on the charts, to project
a slide down to the March consolidation highs of 110.00. The selling shouldn’t
be that aggressive but it should be consistent.
YEN:
Given the failure on the charts and the lack of interest in the surging Nikkei,
it would seem that the Yen is poised to track down toward the late July
consolidation. The late July consolidation is bound by 83.55 and 82.96. The down
trend is reconfirmed if the September Yen falls below 83.55 early this morning.
SWISS:
A major chart failure in the Swiss, projects a slide to the April low of 71.46
but even that level might not present much in the way of support. In fact,
considering that the Swiss has no offsetting economic number support, the
selling could become quite intense.
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POUND:
Considering the overnight action in the Pound it would seem that the trade
isn’t primed to attack the Pound, as aggressively as the Swiss or Euro. London
stocks fell back today, which is surprising and a little negative to the Pound
in the early going today. In the end we suspect that the Pound could fall
further but that upcoming chart support just below 158 will serve to check
aggressively declines. CANADIAN DOLLAR: Another bad trade in the September
Canadian, in the face of a soaring Dollar, means that a break down might be
ahead. In fact, a trade below 71.46 this morning actually violates a critical up
trend channel support line. A quick slide to 71.00 is possible.
METALS
GOLD:
The bullish buzz in the gold market is still missing and the weakness of the
Euro against the Dollar is being touted as the main reason for the downward
bias. Even with an Australian gold fund confirming that it is in talks with the
World Gold Council to start a fund that allows direct investment in gold bars,
the trade doesn’t seem too interested in bidding up gold on the investment
theme. However, apparently another Japanese gold fund is attempting to play up a
fund that supposedly offers a dividend of sorts, one that comes in the form of a
consignment payment.
SILVER:
The silver market is showing its industrial side as it shakes off the
potentially negative influence of the weak gold market and instead is getting
some support off the idea that the US economic recovery could lead to more
physical demand. However, silver will be constantly under a liquidation watch
considering the ongoing overbought condition. Near term support on the charts
comes in at $4.91 but a close below that level could be very damaging to
sentiment.
PLATINUM:
A quasi double top in platinum would seem to indicate a top, but with shares of
auto stocks doing surprisingly well on Wall Street, (there would seem to be
little fundamental rationale for the gains) and the outlook for the economy
improving, it’s hard to make a case for selling platinum. However, the
technicals in platinum seem to favor a quick short play looking for a dip to
$686.Â
Chinese
copper prices were higher overnight, but the trend of minor LME stock increases
continues, which takes some of the COPPER: bullish potential out of the copper
market. However, it is positive that the outlook toward the US economy is
brightening, as that makes it easier to buy an industrial metal like copper. In
the near term, it would seem like the lows around 79.00 are going to hold the
market up but we don’t get the feeling that the market is ready to rise to the
top of trading range up around 81.50.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to   4:15 AM:CRUDE -8 ,HEAT
+32 ,UNGA -73 N-Gas +14 Â The energy complex appeared to under perform
Monday with the fundamental information supportive and prices mostly weak. We
would have thought that the images of the Iraqi pipeline fire (as well as the
Iraqi water main leak) would have been generally supportive but prices acted
disinterested.
NATURAL
GAS
With some
of the hottest temps of the year, facing natural gas and the short fund position
under pressure to liquidate, the bias has to be up in the near term. Apparently
the blackout is still supporting natural gas given the continued closure of some
East Coast generating facilities.