Futures Point To A Weak Open
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -16
It is a little surprising that Treasuries are showing a weaker opening thins
morning, with world equity markets in a slight nosedive. Maybe a significantly
weaker Dollar and talk of less BOJ intervention against the Yen is sending off a
signal that the BOJ might not be buying as many Treasuries in the days ahead. We
also have to think that the Treasuries were a little overbought from the action
last week and that some profit taking is to be expected.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM:S&P-710
DOW -68 Â NIKKEI -463 FTSE -32Â The
market has been due for a correction but with the Nikkei posting a rather
significant washout, the momentum of the setback could be a little bigger than
many would expect. Apparently the talk in the European market is that massive
declines in the Dollar will reduce profitability of multinational companies with
significant business outside of the US. In other words, the market is looking at
the glass as half empty, instead of half full and that is a distinct change from
the last 30 days.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
The near term action will mostly be driven by anxiety and long term positioning
changes. In fact, until the December Euro climbs above 115.03 there might be
little resistance for the Euro. With open interest and volume recently falling
to very low levels, one should not underestimate the magnitude of the upside
potential in the near term. It might even be possible for the Euro to climb to
the June highs of 118.40.
YEN:
Either the BOJ saw the futility of their intervention efforts, or the words of
the G7 had a dramatic impact on their policy. Regardless of the reason behind
the change in stance, the trade now thinks that the BOJ is going to less
aggressive in its intervention efforts. Therefore, we would not be surprised to
see the Yen rise to 95.00.
SWISS:
Catching the wave of long interest from the Euro, the Swiss should be set to
rise to at least 75.00 and possibly to 77.50 if nobody stands up to complain
about the Dollar slide. In fact, with gold also rising one might make a pretty
strong case for the Swiss seeing a rise to that 77.50 level.
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POUND:
The Pound managed a gap up trade and the only thing holding the Pound back from
massive gains, is the fact that it was already somewhat overbought prior to the
move this morning. Little looks to stop the Pound until it reaches 167.06.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: As long as the Canadian starts the session sharply higher, it
should be able to garner additional buying interest. Since the trend has only
recently established itself, we weren’t entirely sure that a massively weaker US
Dollar would instantly translate into a stronger Canadian. At least in the near
term, a weak Dollar is going to drive the Canadian toward the April highs up
around 75.13 on the weekly charts.Â
METALS
GOLD:
With the Dollar falling to the lowest level since the middle of June, the pulse
higher in gold is at least partially explained. Chinese gold soared while
Japanese gold prices reached the highest level since 1996. With the action in
the Dollar causing world equity markets to buckle that also seems to have
provided support to the precious metals.
SILVER:
The silver market looks to follow the gold market but might do so at a slower
rate of climb. We have to think that negative equity market action negates some
of the bullishness in silver but with a pulse higher in prices, it is always
possible that the squeeze talk flares up again. Next upside targeting in the
December silver comes in at $550.
PLATINUM:
A big range up on the open has been reversed and prices are pointing down. While
the platinum market hasn’t shown too much of a correlation to the equity market
action, it would appear that the combination of lower equities and a weaker
Dollar is pressuring platinum. Support is seen at $691.5.Â
Apparently
weak action in world equity markets isn’t undermining the copper market. The
Chinese are still claiming a COPPER: copper concentrate shortage exists and with
their August copper concentrate imports rising only 1% over the prior year, one
might accept the shortage claims. The Australian government agency ABARE
predicted overnight that copper prices would continue to rise if producers leave
production cuts in effect.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM Â
:CRUDE -18Â ,HEAT-18Â
,UNGA-10Â While Pre-OPEC dialogue is already flowing the fact that
Iraq, is expected to be present means that restraining production could be an
extremely difficult task. It is no surprise that Venezuela refuses to recognize
Iraq as a full member apparently suggesting that they wouldn’t recognize a
“de-facto” government, which is another attempt to blast the US
control of Iraq.
NATURAL
GAS
In the
natural gas market it would seem that the market remains in a downward tilt but
might have to continue down to the late January low $4.905. In fact, until the
fund position is known to be a new record short, we are not prepared to declare
a bottom.