Futures Point To A Weak Open
INTEREST RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
AM
BONDS
+6 — The bond market should not stray far from contract highs, considering the
macro economic setup and the potential for heavy geopolitical headwinds. With
the energy complex soaring overnight, the Nikkei making a 20-year low and the
market fresh off extremely disappointing
payroll readings the bond bulls should easily control prices. While the US
economic report slate is thin to start the week, the bull case would not seem to
need much in the way of additional news to keep bonds near the upside breakout
point.
STOCK INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to 4:15 AM: S&P -460,
DOW -45, NIKKEI
-101, FTSE +4.5 — As if the slack US
economic condition (documented in last Fridays report) wasn’t enough of a
problem, it would seem that the Press is going to keep the Pension liability
issue alive. The Press is pointing out a massive pension loss at G.E., (which
was supposedly buried in the footnotes of that companies
earnings report) but that issue is just one of many bearish conditions facing
the market this week. With world energy prices soaring to new high ground
overnight and the
and
steeling themselves to act over the opposition of
many UN members, there should be plenty of anxiety this week.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
DOLLAR: It’s a little surprising that the Dollar hasn’t started the
week out much closer to the low documented last Friday, as the political and
economic mix for the Dollar is really sour. The
payroll report was so weak that the political sellers of the Dollar have almost
as much reason to sell the Dollar off the economic differential as they do off
the political situation. The
apparently wants to have a vote on the
situation this week and while it would appear the
will lose the vote, it should be noted that the
could have slightly more yes votes than no votes. The
is apparently perturbed by the fact that the weapons inspectors failed to
discuss the illegal drones uncovered in
Since it would seem that some sentiment has shifted toward the
stance, the selling pressure on the Dollar is mitigated but still very much in
place. We would be surprised to see the Dollar recover above 98.16 and would
view that kind of rally as a chance to get short.
EURO: Like the Dollar, the Euro is back to its old
trend but is lacking the same type of intensity that was in place a couple weeks
ago. Early last week it seemed that weak Euro zone economics might doom the
rally effort but now that the
has posted a very low economic hurdle, the pendulum shifts squarely back toward
euro dominance. Near term support should not be violated down at 109.68 and the
next upside target is pegged at 111.10.
YEN: It is surprising that the Yen managed
to post gains this morning, considering the weakness in the Nikkei and the
concern being generated by statements from the Bank of Japan. In fact, the BOJ
felt compelled to sooth the market by suggesting they could avert a crisis by
buying Japanese stocks. If the
economy slides back toward a double dip recession, we would want nothing of the
Yen above 86.00. In conclusion, the risk of being long the Yen appears to
outweigh the near term rewards.
SWISS: Considering the aggressive debate
that is sure to unfold at the UN, the weakness in the
and Euro zone economies, we have to prefer the Swiss for coming flight to
quality positions. In fact, on a correction to 74.89 we would add to longs
looking for an upside target of 75.75.
POUND: The short covering move seen last
week has apparently run its course. We now suspect that the Pound is primed to
slide back toward the 158.68 level in the March contract. Slightly higher
inflation readings from the
are only a minor issue compared to the potential war selling of the Pound, in
the event that the vote on attacking
is rejected and the
and
move forward with the attack. In fact, we would not be surprised to see the
Pound fall all the way down to the late February consolidation bound by 158.42
and 157.00.
CANADIAN: Despite being temporarily
overbought, the fundamentals behind the Canadian leave it entrenched in the bull
swing. We suspect that flight to quality buying interest will become more
intense by the middle of the week and certainly when it becomes clear that a UN
vote will be undertake on
METALS
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:
GLD +3.00, SLV
-0.3, PLAT +2.40, CP -20; London
Gold Fix $353.10, -$3.50; LME Copper
Warehouse
stks
843,575 ton, -2,325 tns;
Comex Gold stocks 2.32 ml, -6,628 oz;
COMEX Silver stks
110.4 ml oz, +14,497 oz; OVERNIGHT: No movement in the Asian action but early US
pricing was firming
GOLD: The gold market continues to show some
upward momentum off the February low, with a breakout coming this week on a
trade above $360 in the June contract. The net spec long in gold is roughly
80,000 contracts, which is burdensome but not totally limiting. It still seems
like the
is prepared to go to war, despite international and domestic pressure against
the war.
SILVER: Countervailing the concern of a
double dip recession, are indications that the Fed might be primed to cut
interest rates. The silver market is also seeing support from the recent
performance in gold. With the net spec long in silver bordering on 44,000
contracts, the market is only partially overbought when compared to the
excessive overbought condition registered early in February.
PLATINUM: The platinum market is close to
violating critical trend line support on the charts at $676.5 in the April
contract. The COT report showed a minimal increase in the net spec long, which
means that the last two weeks gains haven’t put the market into an overbought
position. Fresh longs probably have to risk at least $674.8 basis the April
contract.
COPPER: Minor gains in
and
would seem to provide some support to the
market. The recent COT report showed a net spec long of 37,000 contracts but
since that report was measured, copper has slid 250 points. Therefore, copper is
closer to being balanced technically than many would have expected.
CRUDE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to
AM
CRUDE
+33, HEAT +95,
UNGA +53 — The energy complex comes into a very critical week
with a moderately long spec position in crude oil and only minimal spec long
positions in the products. At this point it would appear that the
won’t carry the vote for the use of force but it would also seem like the vote
won’t prevent the
from attacking.
NATURAL GAS
The net
spec long position in natural gas is dramatically reduced from the levels seen
around the recent high. Therefore, the ongoing war concerns combined with cold
weather through mid-week, should provide some support
to a market that needs fairly consistent fundamental support.