Futures Point To A Weaker Open
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -3
While the Press continues to trumpet the US recovery, the economic report slate
is mostly devoid of information today and that could give the bulls an
advantage. If one were to look exclusively at the charts, a slightly positive
look also exists. In fact, December has now mounted 4 straight closes either
above or right at the 40 day moving average.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM:S&P-140
DOW -6 NIKKEI -65 FTSE -13Â While the stock market seemed to buckle under
less than stellar Nokia earnings and sales reports Tuesday the broad market
seems to be exhausted and without fresh incentives. With the economic report
slate pretty quiet and another September 11th anniversary looming, it would seem
that some investors are deciding to bank profits. We really don’t see an
aggressive liquidation off the current mix of fundamentals and if the market
weren’t slightly overbought, we would probably only see a simple sideways track
on the charts.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
The December Euro has managed to climb back above critical moving average levels
and would seem to be primed for more minor gains ahead. We still have trouble
buying the Euro when considering the recent economic readings from the Euro
zone, but with the 4th GDP forecast calling for growth of +0.2% to +0.4% there
is some minor attraction to the currency and since the markets are lacking a
clear opinion, one has to favor the upside. Near term upside targeting is seen
at 113.42.
YEN:
The yen is seeing short-term technical indicators in a sell mode this morning
but until prices come out of a 86.15 to 85.66 range, one really can’t get a grip
on the direction of the trend. The fact that Japan posted some disappointing
factory orders readings could give a slight edge to the bear camp.
SWISS:
With gold down in the early action and world equity market action muted, we are
a little disappointed that the flight to quality fever isn’t running a little
hotter this morning and that takes away some of the upside potential in the
Swiss. In order to turn the trend up in the Swiss, the December contract needs
to close above 72.83 today.
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POUND:
As in most other currencies today the Pound has or will soon make a critical
upside trade that could signal an upward adjustment in prices. In fact, there
are a number of technical indicators that are flashing buy signals in the Pound
this morning. CANADIAN DOLLAR: Trend line support in the December Canadian comes
in today at 72.08 and given the weakness of the Dollar Tuesday, we have to think
that the Canadian has the potential to rise in the coming 24 hours. However,
short-term technical indicators are standing in the way of the bull case, with
minor sell signals.
METALS
GOLD:
While the Dollar is showing slightly firmer action overnight, it was clear from
the action Tuesday that the currency was in the process of a breakout to the
downside and that should help underpin gold against any aggressive liquidation
effort. As long the market doesn’t detect hedge interest, we really don’t expect
the growing overbought status to be a burden to prices in the near term. Chinese
gold prices were moderately higher overnight but that was mostly a response to
the US gains on Tuesday.
SILVER:
With the market holding just under the recent highs and short-term technicals
signaling a “buy”, it is clear that the range up move Tuesday hardly
caused a ripple effect in many technical indicators. In other words, the silver
market consolidation for most of the month of August really served to balance
the market. With the outlook toward the US recovery surprisingly improving and
gold providing persistent support to silver, we see no reason why silver can’t
consolidation the recent higher trade.
PLATINUM:
The platinum market is getting short term technical sell signals from
stochastics but wouldn’t see a moving average sell signal unless the October
contract fell back below 696. We do think that persistent strength in gold will
lend indirect support to platinum as precious metals interest filters into all
markets. Trend line support in the October contract comes in down at 702.5 but
the market already bounced away from that channel support in the overnight
action. Â
It
is clear that copper has assumed the mantle of an industrial metal instead of a
precious metal, as copper sagged to the lowest level in a week and saw some
lower price action in Shanghai overnight. While the Press continues to be upbeat
on the US recovery, GDP numbers COPPER: from Europe and action in the US equity
market on Tuesday were simply not conducive to higher copper prices. As noted in
the last COT report, the funds and small specs were certainly long enough to
expect stop loss selling on the violation of even minor technical support
points.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM Â
:CRUDE -8Â Â ,HEAT+13Â
,UNGA+7Â It appeared as if the energy market was lifted Tuesday by
ideas that US gasoline stocks would decline in the inventory reports to be
released this morning. Surprisingly energy prices rallied despite reports of
increasing North Sea crude programs for October and November.
NATURAL
GAS
It would
seem like natural gas prices want to break but the presence of a category 4
storm in the Atlantic and surprising strong cooling needs in the Midwest is
preventing the bear camp from pushing prices back to the recent lows. The trade
is also concerned that the upcoming weekly storage report could show a triple
digit injection and that more than anything countervails the storm threat.