Futures Slightly Mixed In Pre-Market
INTEREST
RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS +13
The Treasuries seem to have already priced in a weak US initial claims reading
for the report this morning. In fact, with prices now 6 points above the August
low, it would certainly seem like the market is positioning for at least a
slowing in the recovery pace. Considering the flow of economic numbers since the
last unemployment report, one can hardly argue against the bull case.
STOCK
INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to 4:15 AM:S&P+180 DOW
+16Â NIKKEI +43 FTSE +4Â The
stock market was weaker Wednesday, but wasn’t really embracing an anxiety
track, or a posture that would seem to convey rising risk to the longs. In other
words, the market remains in a slow upward bias and isn’t being distracted by
periodic negatives. While we never expected the stock market to weaken off the
troubles of the NYSE Chairman, the stock market could have played up the
concerns of corporate fraud with the most recent charges against a couple Wall
Street executives.
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EURO:
The Euro has had trouble rising above the early September consolidation highs.
It is possible that the “no-vote†on EU entry in Sweden early this week held
back the Euro, but more than likely the market will now make another run at the
September highs. Weak US numbers would certainly pave the way for new highs, but
it seems that a large portion of coming Dollar weakness will benefit the Pound,
instead of the Euro. If the Euro is any good, it needs to make a new high for
the move without violating 110.61.
YEN:
The Press is reporting heavy intervention by the BOJ, with some estimates
putting the intervention at 17 billion in the last month. Despite the
intervention, strong Asian growth forecasts seem to be putting the Yen in a
position to forge an upside breakout. As long as the Yen holds above 86.47, the
trend is up.
SWISS:
The Swiss is simply not a player in the recent action and is only getting
minimal support when the Dollar slides. Therefore, we see the range of 71.96 to
73.00 containing prices. There seems to be little need for flight to quality and
the Swiss isn’t even getting support on days when the metals are higher.
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POUND:
The talk that the BOE is primed to “hike interest rates†has the attention
of the market and is serving to pull money into the Pound. With UK retail sales
readings up only +0.2% and the CBI suggesting that Industrial output would be
unchanged from the prior month, the Pound is simply undeterred. In other words,
the trade favors the Pound and the numbers aren’t going to change that view.
The next upside target in the December Pound comes in up at 161.50. CANADIAN
DOLLAR: Slack action in the Canadian, hints at more consolidation action today.
In fact, the chart looks to have a minor downward bias today, unless the US
Dollar fails off its early numbers. The Canadian just can’t seem to solidify
the bull case.
METALS
GOLD:
The gold market did a good job of putting in a strong bottom Wednesday, but did
so with some significant help from the Dollar. However, in the overnight action
the Japanese showed up to buy gold and we are seeing a number of favorable Press
stories that could rekindle the upside in the US action. In addition to the news
that gold funds ranked at the top of the list in the Lipper fund report for the
month of August, it would seem that speculative interest in gold is returning.
SILVER:
Giving silver a boost and mostly countervailing the recent rise in COMEX silver
stocks is talk that silver, is in fact seeing aggressive fund buying and might
even be the subject of a squeeze. The trade in New York is talking up the idea
that such a large long position in futures is set to overwhelm physical supply
and that might spark a sharp rally that in effect rations the supply. We are a
skeptical of the squeeze theory but when a market is in a bull market posture
those type of stories tend to surface! In fact, as long as the outlook toward
precious metals is strong, silver could in effect become the leadership market.
PLATINUM:
News of a consolidation/buyout in the platinum market and the returning of
favorable interest to gold and silver, have given the platinum market enough
support to reverse the downside breakout seen during the action Wed. Shorts
might want to cover positions, as the mkt might try to return to the old up
trend channel up around $703. We doubt the rally will be able to hold.Â
Chinese
copper prices were mixed overnight, hinting that the US action will remain
suspect after the surprising rally early this COPPER: week. However, the world
remains upbeat on the Asian economy, suggesting that it will continue to be the
faster growing economic region. It should also be noted that the UK expects
economic growth to pick up so much that the BOE will have to hike interest
rates.
CRUDE
COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM Â
:CRUDE -3Â Â ,HEAT+30Â
,UNGA+42Â As expected the energy complex faded aggressively Wednesday
morning off a set of patently bearish weekly inventory readings. In fact, the
only contraction in supply in the flurry of numbers came from a minor decline in
API gasoline stocks.
NATURAL
GAS
Not only
is the regular energy complex pressuring natural gas prices, but the expectation
for a rather large injection is also weighing on prices. Expectations for the
weekly inventory report call for a stout injection of 90 to 105 bcf.