Game Time
After
a first-hour down to an
intraday low of 1144.60, the SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) rallied 11 points to 1156,
which is just under the 200-day EMA of 1157.77. It couldn’t hold, so it was
trend down from the 12:45 p.m. bar into the close at 1148.70. NYSE volume was
average at 1.2 billion, a volume ratio of 42, and breadth -481. From my
standpoint, it was essentially an uneventful day, which didn’t indicate any
major buying or selling pressure, but it was disappointing the Generals didn’t
show up on the buy side to get an early start into quarter’s end. The bias
remains up this week into quarter’s end, possibly into the first few days of
April for new money reinvestment.Â
The SPX gets going on the
upside above 1150, then again above the 200-day EMA at 1157.77. On the downside,
the 30-week EMA is 1141.96, and most recent swing-point low is 1139.48. So,
there is no mystery on the game plan today. The NDX
(
$NDX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) closed at
1470.10 and gets trade positive above 1476. If there is an early down, the NDX
could trade down to the .618 retracement zone to Thursday’s low, which is
1460-1463, or to the 1465 minor support you see on your five-minute chart.
This is a good quarter
for the Generals, and I expect them to at least protect it, and possibly enhance
a few of their dominant holdings. That’s a nice way to say it, isn’t it? You can
of course play
(
QQQ |
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PowerRating)s,
(
DIA |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s,
(
SPY |
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PowerRating)s and certainly
(
SMH |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s
because there are some excellent year-to-date gains in semis like
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). If you prefer the SMHs, look to see how Intel
(
INTC |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Texas Instruments
(
TXN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and AMAT are setting up because the
three of them comprise 70% of the market cap of the SMH HOLDRs.
If you play DIAs, then
look to the higher-priced stocks like
(
IBM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MMM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
UTX |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WMT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
GM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). The Dow is price weighted, unlike the
S&P 500. For example, GE’s
(
GE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) weakness won’t hurt the Dow much, but
because it has the largest market cap, it can be a drag on the S&P 500.
If the financials go
green, then look to
(
BAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WFC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
C |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which comprise more than 50%
of the
(
$BKX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). If you trade sectors, you must know the components and
the weightings.
Stocks
Today
Daily chart setups today:
(
ADBE |
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News |
PowerRating),
(
IPG |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DGX |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ITW |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MYG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
JNJ |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WFC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
C |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SYMC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
THC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ANF |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
DDS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
In the semis, although
they’re not set up so well on the daily charts, I’m looking toward the mark, and
that would be
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and also
(
MCHP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Then
I’d keep an intraday look on
(
TXN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) if they decide to get the
HOLDRs going.Â
Have a good trading day.
Five-minute chart of
Monday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Monday’s NYSE TICKS
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