Gary’s Quarterly Review
Time for my quarterly review… and I must
say, I am quite happy with my reports during the second quarter. In case you
have been sleeping from April until today, it was a very tough quarter for the
bulls, but not for us. The market spoke loudly… the market spoke clearly. I
listened intently.
Let’s review.
Before getting
into specifics, the most important benefit of my reports was my continuous
negativity with TECH, TELECOM
and the like. It should now be obvious why I have been so negative. The
technical condition has been that bad.
April 1 – My worst blunder of the quarter… though it really didn’t
hurt much. I said that HOMEBUILDERS had topped.
They did… but for only several weeks… before coming on strong. One day, they
are going to be great shorts… but not just yet.
April 4 – I told you that sentiment was too bullish and more and more
charts were showing negative wedge-type action.
April 8 – Told you there was a good chance
of breaking support on Nasdaq at 1770 and hitting February lows.
BINGO!
April 9 – Took issue with the recent big
reversal day… on the money!
April 11 – Told you to sell phone companies.
How are Qwest and Worldcom doing?
April 18 – Many technicians are trend
followers. I believe in order to be a good technician, you need to see things
setting up before it actually happens. Well, on April 18, I stated that a few
Dow charts were breaking down and stated “now you know how far I think the Dow
can go near-term. Two of the charts I put up were
IBM
(
IBM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) at 87.98 and Intel
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) at 30.32.
April 29 – Mentioned 81 stocks… mostly
TECH and told you the Nasdaq was in big trouble because all were either broken
down or just breaking down. For the 100th time, told you to stay away from
TECH/TELECOM and for the first time in a
while… told you to avoid SEMIS. SEMIS have
dropped 25% since.
May 9 – Didn’t believe the bounce would get any
legs.
May 15 – Follow-through day but I stated
that sentiment was too bullish for a longer-term move.
May 20 – Put out the 40 stocks that looked
shortable… even after a 10% Nasdaq rally the prior week. You know what has
happened since. This is probably
my best report ever... not because 39 of 40 went down and by an average of
30% but because it instilled great confidence in my abilities, Confidence is
attained over time and by putting yourself on the line. I am very proud of that
one.
May 28 – Don’t buy into the
BIOTECH bounce. I even jumped on a couple of commentators who heralded
one big up day as a bottom. BIOTECHS dropped over
25% since and some individual names are down much farther.
June 10 – Don’t believe reversal day.
Markets were smacked the next week.
June 17 – Don’t believe reversal day… Part
2.
June 24 – Things looking very ugly but shorting
has become too easy… meaning market could be close to a bounce.
That’s the review. I couldn’t be happier. This
was a very tough quarter for most but the markets lined up perfectly for me. The
charts continue to guide me well. I hope you agree. Please take the time to go
through all of my reports.
Lastly, I must
tell you that by writing these reports, it has made me better at my craft. It
has made me work harder and longer but it is definitely paying off. I advise
each and every one of you to start writing up your own “reports” to see how you
feel about things. You can then go backwards and see what you did right and most
importantly… what you did wrong. The only way you improve is to figure out
what you are doing wrong and change for the better.
Unless the
markets experience big changes due to the holiday, this will be my last report
this week. My staff and I want to wish each and every one of you a safe and
happy holiday… and please don’t let the kids light up any fireworks.
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