Generals Turn To Lead So Traders Can React
What Wednesday’s Action Tells You
The quarter ends with price holding on the
SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which is most important to the Generals, as the first
quarter
ends slightly positive, which means most of the “quasi-index
funds,” which they
still call active management, finished positive for the quarter. There was
nothing significant about the market action that was really just a holding
pattern for the SPX.
NYSE volume expanded to 1.47 billion, which
is
not unusual into the final day of a quarter. The volume ratio was 57 with
breadth also positive at +766, as the SPX closed at 1126.21, which was down
less
than a point from Tuesday’s 1127 close. There was a little push from 2:00
p.m.
to 3:00 p.m. ET as the SPX hit 1130.83, but faded into the 1126.21
close.
The
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) volume was again on the light
side
at 86 million with the QQQs closing at 35.84, -0.2%, which was about how the
Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) closed. The Nasdaq bumped up
against
that 2001 resistance line and hit a 2004 intraday high on the 2:50 p.m. bar
before fading to a 1994 close.
The primary sectors were non-descript, but
the
brokers (XBD) did finish green for the fifth day in succession. And why not?
They have been big winners for many of the Generals. The
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) finished
red
at -0.2%, but rallied from -0.9% at 10:00 a.m. to about +0.7% into that 2:50
p.m. period, but couldn’t hold it fading into the close, but it did provide
an
excellent trade for daytraders.
Thurs. 3/25 |
Friday 3/26 |
Monday 3/29 |
Tuesday 3/30 |
Wed. 3/31 |
|
Index |
|||||
| SPX |
|||||
High |
1110.38 | 1115.27 | 1124.37 | 1127.60 | 1130.83 |
Low |
1091.33 | 1106.13 | 1108.06 | 1119.66 | 1121.46 |
Close |
1109.28 | 1108.20 | 1122.47 | 1127.00 | 1126.21 |
% |
+1.6 | -0.1 | +1.3 | +0.4 | -.07 |
Range |
19.1 | 9.1 | 16.3 | 7.9 | 9.4 |
% Range |
94 | 23 | 88 | 93 | 50 |
INDU |
10219 | 10213 | 10330 | 10382 | 10358 |
% |
+1.7 | -.06 | +1.1 | +0.5 | -0.2 |
Nasdaq |
1967 | 1960 | 1993 | 2001 | 1994 |
% |
+3.0 | -0.4 | +1.7 | +0.4 | -0.3 |
| QQQ |
35.34 | 35.22 | 35.85 | 35.92 | 35.84 |
% |
+2.7 | -0.3 | +1.8 | +0.4 | -0.2 |
NYSE |
|||||
T. VOL |
1.48 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.47 |
U. VOL |
1.25 | 734 | 1.18 | 925 | 819 |
D. VOL |
215 | 571 | 166 | 360 | 614 |
VR |
85 | 56 | 88 | 72 | 57 |
4 MA |
44 | 56 | 65 | 75 | 68 |
5 RSI |
52 | 66 | 65 | 70 | 67 |
ADV |
2358 | 1789 | 2428 | 2186 | 2029 |
DEC |
911 | 1499 | 890 | 1089 | 1263 |
A-D |
+1447 | +290 | +1538 | +1097 | +766 |
4 MA |
-211 | +313 | +581 | +1093 | +923 |
SECTORS |
|||||
SMH |
+4.0 | -0.9 | +1.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
| BKX |
+1.3 | -0.2 | +1.5 | +0.4 | -0.3 |
XBD |
+2.5 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +0.2 | +.05 |
RTH |
+2.3 | -0.3 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
CYC |
+2.2 | +0.3 | +1.8 | +1.0 | -0.1 |
PPH |
+0.7 | +0.1 | +1.4 | -0.2 | +0.4 |
OIH |
+0.8 | +1.2 | -0.3 | +2.6 | +0.5 |
| BBH |
+2.0 | -1.5 | +2.1 | -0.3 | -0.6 |
TLT |
-0.4 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.7 | +0.5 |
| XAU |
+2.6 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.4 |
^next^
For Active
Traders
The QQQ traded down to 35.61, the previous
RST
entry level, and the 240 EMA on the 10:15 a.m. bar, then rallied a bit
before
falling back to the 240 EMA again on the 1:55 p.m. bar and a 35.66 low. The
rally from there was right to the 36 resistance line and 50-day EMA where it
reversed down to 35.66 and the 240 EMA again, then rallying to 35.84 from
4:00
p.m. – 4:15 p.m. as everybody tucked it in. Net net, there were three
reversals
from the 240 EMA and one reversal from the 36 resistance line/50-day
EMA.
The SMH rallied from the .618 retracement to
Tuesday’s 38.83 low with entry above 39.23, running +1.7% to a 39.90 high,
closing at 39.50. The next afternoon trade in the SMH was on the retracement
to
the 240 EMA with entry above 39.47 and advancing to that 39.90 high.
The
(
SPY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) traded down to 112.38 on the
10:05
a.m. bar and reversed the 112.62 50-day EMA, trading up to
113.38.
The ESM4 (E-mini) gave you entry above
1121.50,
the high of the 10:05 a.m. bar, which was at the 240 EMA on the futures
chart,
which is always different because of GLOBEX trading prices, if that is what
your
quote vendor does. In spite of the choppy trading, there were a few things
to
do.
Today’s
Action
I have included the daily chart of the
(
IWM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
— Russell 2000 — which you should keep your eye on as it could give you an
early signal on any further advance in the other major indices. Yesterday’s
trading was so choppy that it didn’t really leave any closing range setups
to
focus on today, plus there is the jobs report circus on Friday. That leaves
traders in a pure reaction mode to any overreaction to the jobs report.
Also, we
will have to see if the Generals are going to put new money to work over the
next several days. You have a recap of the various levels from yesterday’s
commentary, so add your volatility bands, and let the games begin.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
