Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?
The on
again/off again semiconductor saga and
the analysts’ constantly changing outlook on Intel
(
INTC |
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(
$SOX.X |
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(
$NDX.X |
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(
$SPX.X |
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$INDU |
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some very unusual option activity prior to the meltdown. At the close, only
drillers, generic drugs and five to six of the Dow basics remained green. The
banks were off 1.0%, the brokers -1.3%, and the retail, as evidenced by the
(
$RLX.X |
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NYSE volume was 1.3
billion, volume ratio 31, and breadth -550. With Intel, Xilinx
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Qlogic
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QLGC |
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(
QQQ |
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retracement level. The intraday low was 33.48 vs. the 33.33 retracement level.
They were trading back up to 33.65 after-hours when I left, as Xilinx revised
fourth quarter views upward, for whatever that means. We’ll see if any of the
dueling semi analysts counter with the positive side today. Treasury
Secretary O’Neill gave us a “recession ending” speech, and the January
leading indicators jumped up. The Philadelphia Fed survey was the highest in two
years regarding industrial activity. Glass half empty or half full?
You know it’s an extreme
fear day when 83 NDX 100 stocks close in the bottom 25% of their daily range
with only five stocks closing equal to or greater than the midpoint. The price
discount was extreme relative to overall volume, and that usually means a quick
up reflex. My overall outlook is consistent with what it’s been all along: that
the September lows get a retest with a 30%-40% chance of lower lows. The SPX and
DJX
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$DJX.X |
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the .38 zone.
As I recall, and have
recorded, many were saying at rally highs, “Don’t fight the tape,”
“The trend is your friend,” etc. Many of these same people hadn’t even
seen a bear market, let alone shown you a “V” bottom that has stood up
since 1970. And if you think 1982 was a “V”, go recheck your charts.
For those of you that have learned RSTs at my seminar, you will see that 1982,
especially July and August, was a sea of RST buys, as the bottom was forming and
the 150- to 200-day moving averages were flattening out.
Stocks
Today
The primary focus should
be on the QQQs,
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SPY |
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(
DIA |
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(
SMH |
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Daily chart setups, and
obviously, there are hardly any, are
(
SLB |
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(
APA |
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the energies again.
Also
(
PH |
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UNP |
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CSX |
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(
UNH |
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PowerRating).
On the shortside, if they
go red,
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MERQ |
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(
ADBE |
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(
CHIR |
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(
VRTS |
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PowerRating).
Have a good trading day.
Five-minute chart of
Thursday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Thursday’s NYSE TICKS
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