Gold Through Resistance…

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (SEP) 6/25/2004: The market has a bullish
tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance.
Near-term resistance for bonds is at 106.17 and then again at 107.00, while
swing support hits at 105.13 and below there at 104.24. A positive signal for
trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Rising
stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside
objective is 107.00.

T-NOTES(SEP) Momentum studies are trending
higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at
109.21. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish
indication. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 109.10 and then again at
109.21, while swing support hits at 108.19 and below there at 108.06. The
market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

6/24/2004

The stock market was probably a little
discouraged and primed to take profits in the face of the disappointing US
economic information released Thursday morning. With energy prices showing signs
of strength and the Dollar sliding it seemed like recent macro optimism was
being sucked out of the market. With short term technical indicators a little
overbought and some in the trade fearful of weekend violence in Iraq it isn’t
surprising that some light selling came into play. However one of the strongest
housing numbers in 11 years helped the stock market discount the disappointment
from the early numbers.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (SEP) 6/25/2004: The close over the pivot
swing is a somewhat positive setup. The daily closing price reversal down is a
negative indicator for prices. Underlying support comes in at 1138.15 and
1135.48, with overhead resistance at 1144.85 and 1148.88. The close above the
9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Daily
stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support
reversal action if it occurs. The near-term upside objective is at 1148.88.

S&P E-Mini (SEP): The downside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Studies are showing positive
momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The
next upside target is 1148.69. It is a slightly negative indicator that the
close was lower than the pivot swing number. Near-term resistance for the S&P
Mini is at 1144.38 and then again at 1148.69, while swing support hits at
1137.63 and below there at 1135.19. The market’s close above the 9-day moving
average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.

NASDAQ (SEP) The market could take on a defensive
posture with the daily closing price reversal down. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a
slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The market should
run into resistance at 1503.00 and above there at 1514.00 with support at
1485.00 and 1478.00. Stochastics are at mid-range, but trending higher which
should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The next
upside objective is 1514.00.

MINI DOW (MAR) The daily closing price reversal
down is a negative indicator for prices. The close above the 9-day moving
average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market should run into
resistance at 10469 and above there at 10503 with support at 10411 and 10387.
Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to
support reversal action if it occurs. The near-term upside target is at 10503.
It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

Broad based Dollar selling pushed the September
contract below support at 89.00 and creating a technical setup which could
pressure the market to recent lows at 88.41. Bombings in Turkey and Iraq over
night and concerns that terrorist attacks will escalate into the June 30th US
hand-over of rule to the Iraq people triggered aggressive fund and spec selling.
The economic news has been mixed and inflation indicators relatively mild and
likely means the Fed will not aggressively tighten rates which is negative for
the Dollar. Safe Haven buying supported the Swiss, while good economic news from
Japan indicating the recovery is broad based gave solid support to the Yen. Sept
Yen pushed through several technical resistance levels and would close an old
gap on a close over 93.88. Canadian Dollar also saw strong gains off a weaker
Dollar, with next critical resistance at 74.50.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 6/25/2004: YEN (SEP): A positive
signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average.
If yesterday’s gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying
could develop this session. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today’s
trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. Swing resistance is
targeted at 93.77 and above there at 93.98, with the yen finding support around
93.36 and below there at 93.16. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant
some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is 93.98.

EURO (SEP): Momentum studies are rising from
mid-range which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside target is at 1.2215. The defensive setup, with
the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.2071, with overhead resistance at 1.2215. The
close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap lower price action
on the day session chart.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

6/24/2004

A push through key resistance at $400 attracted
aggressive fund buying in August gold on Thursday as the market was supported by
safe haven buying and a broad based sell-off in the Dollar. Bombings overnight
in Turkey and Iran and expectations for an escalation of terrorist attacks
leading up to the June 30th US hand over to Iraq for self rule have tweaked
buying interest in gold. For a lot of the same reasons the US Dollar sold off
sharply and oil prices firmed on Thursday which contributed to the bullish
sentiment in gold. Expectations the Fed will not raise rates aggressive and
choke off growth is another supportive factor. September silver pushed through
resistance at 6.08 triggering sharply higher price action. Bullish technical
signals point to at least a move to 6.25 then possibly 6.34.

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 6/25/2004: SILVER (SEP): The market has
a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. Initial support for silver is at 605.9 and below there at 586.7 with
resistance likely at 616.9 and 633.4. A positive indicator was given with the
upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Stochastics are at mid-range,
but trending higher which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels
are taken out. The next upside objective is 616.9. If yesterday’s gap higher on
the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session.

GOLD (AUG): Support for gold today comes in near
399.00, while resistance is pegged at 406.60. Daily stochastics have risen into
overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs.
The near-term upside target is at 406.60. There could be more upside follow
through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The upside
crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. The market is
becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. Follow through buying
looks likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

September copper looks to have garnered strength
from the rest of the metals market with a breakout over 120 attracting fund
buying. The market was able to overcome bearish economic news with May Durable
Goods falling an unexpected 1.6% and focus on reports of a possible mine strike
in Chile and further supported by a 14.8% rise in New Home Sales to a record
1.369 million unit rate. With LME copper stocks still on a declining trend, a
strike at Chile’s Collahausi mine, which could begin July 2nd, would add to the
tight supply situation. Resistance above the market is at 123.50 with support at
120.00.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

The energy complex generally showed positive
action early in the session despite the news yesterday July OPEC production
might reach 30 million barrels per day. In fact, even with OPEC suggesting that
they would go ahead with the August production increase the bull camp decided to
boost prices. We suspect that increased insurgent attacks in Iraq are combining
with the proximity of the last weekend ahead of the hand over to support prices.
With the Norway strike still in effect during the session and expected to
escalate we can understand the increased buying interest.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 6/25/2004: CRUDE OIL (AUG): The close
over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. Support for crude is keyed on
37.62 and below there at 37.24, with resistance pegged at 38.24 and 38.48. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range which could accelerate a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside target is at
38.48.

UNLEADED GAS (AUG): Stochastics are at mid-range,
but trending higher which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels
are taken out. The next upside objective is 123.71. The market setup is
supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance.
Resistance today is at 123.71, while support should be found around 118.11. A
positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving
average.

HEATING OIL (AUG): Market positioning is positive
with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Heating oil should encounter
support around 100.17, with resistance is at 104.97. Short-term indicators
suggest buying pullbacks today. The close above the 9-day moving average is a
positive short-term indicator for trend. Momentum studies are rising from
mid-range which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside target is at 104.97.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

Weak export news and expectations for good
weather to improve crop conditions for the next week helped to push the market
lower early in the session in spite of higher soybean prices. Weakness in wheat
and fears that cheaper Argentina corn and increasing supplies of feedwheat from
Europe will keep export news for corn slow added to the negative tone. The
technical reversal from an oversold level in yesterday’s trade and some
expectations for heat to move into the Midwest during the first week of July
helped provide some support. Weekly export sales came in at only 348,600 tons as
compared with trade expectations at 450,000-600,000 tons. Old crop sales were
159,600 tons as compared with 565,000 tons necessary each week to reach the USDA
projection. Cumulative sales have reached 88.4% of the USDA forecast for the
season as compared with 90% on average for this time of the year. The EU awarded
import licenses for 105,727 tons for the week. December corn support comes in at
281 3/4 and 279 1/2 with 288 1/4 and 293 1/2 as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (DEC) 6/25/2004: Momentum studies are still
bearish, but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. The next downside target is now at 277 3/4. The close over the
pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. Market resistance comes in at 287 3/4
today, with support at 277 3/4. The close below the 9-day moving average is a
negative short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal down
is a negative indicator for prices.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

6/24/2004

The market is finding continued strong support
for old crop futures from the tight stocks situation and from continued signs of
higher than expected usage. China futures prices were higher overnight and basis
levels remain firm. Both the crush and export news was positive this morning
which added to the positive tone for old crop futures. The Census Bureau
reported that the May crush totaled 117.46 million bushels as compared with
117.2 million expected. Oil stocks were pegged at 1.576 billion pounds which was
considered slightly supportive against expectations of 1.583 billion pounds.
Meal stocks were considered bearish with end of May stocks pegged at 465,547
tons as compared with expectations at 329,500 tons. Ideas that the extreme heat
over the far western cost of the US and Canada will shift to the central US into
early July has provided underlying support to new crop soybeans. Weekly export
sales came in at 127,000 tons for soybeans as compared with trade expectations
at 0-75,000 tons. Old crop sales were 96,300 tons as compared with 25,000 tons
necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Cumulative sales have reached
98.9% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 98.6% on average for
this time of the year. Meal sales came in at 28,000 tons against trade
expectations of 20,000-50,000 tons. Old crop sales were 27,300 tons as compared
with 11,900 tons necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Cumulative
sales have reached 95.3% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with
87.1% on average for this time of the year. The Brazil Census Bureau this
morning lowered their soybean crop production estimate to 49.47 million tons as
compared with the USDA forecast in the last world supply/demand report at 52.6
million tons. Support for November soybeans moves up to 686 1/2 and 684 with 705
1/4 and 721 1/4 as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (NOV) 06/25/04 The market has a
slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next area of
resistance is around 706 2/4 and 714 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 691
2/4 and below there at 684 1/4. The market’s close on the 9-day moving average
is neutral. Stochastics are at mid-range, but trending higher which should
reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The next upside
objective is 714 1/4.

MEAL (DEC): Momentum studies are rising from
mid-range which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside target is at 230.8. Follow through buying looks
likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart. First
resistance comes in at 227.0, with support at 220.3. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The close over the
pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The cross over and close above the
40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend is up.

BEAN OIL (DEC): A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Rising from over
sold levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices especially on a
close above resistance. The next upside objective is 25.23. With the close
higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.
Daily swing resistance is found at 24.93 and above there at 25.23. Support
should be encountered at 24.44 and 24.25.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

News that Egypt bought 120,000 tons of wheat from
France and none from the US in their overnight tender helped to pressure the
market in spite of slightly higher trade overnight. The reversal from an
oversold technical level yesterday helped to provide some support on the early
break but a move under 341 July would negate the reversal and leave the market
probing for a harvest low. Improved weather for harvest has added to the bearish
tone. Weekly export sales came in at 440,000 tons as compared with trade
expectations at 300,000-500,000 tons and 392,100 tons necessary each week to
reach the USDA projection. Cumulative sales have reached 26.4% of the USDA
forecast for the season as compared with 13.7% on average for this time of the
year. A jump of 3-10 cents in the soft red winter basis in spite of improving
harvest weather ahead helped provide some support but without the Egypt
business, traders are nervous that cash bids could fall. The EU awarded export
licenses for 58,295 tons for the week. September wheat support drops back to the
343 to 339 level with 353 and 358 resistance.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (DEC) 6/25/2004: Bearish daily studies
indicate selling minor rallies this session. The close below the 1st swing
support could weigh on the market. Expect near-term support around 355 2/4 and
below there at 353 1/4, with resistance levels at 362 2/4 and 367 1/4. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling
may be drying up soon. The next downside objective is 353 1/4.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

6/24/2004

The June contract surged higher in an attempt to
keep up with the cash market but the bullishness seemed to have peaked on the
opening for the August contract. Cash traded at $90.00 this week, up $3.00 from
last week but many traders believe that packers were forced to pay-up this week
due to a back-up of orders for beef for the 4th of July holiday and that demand
for live cattle next week could fall off significantly. This trigger long
liquidation selling after the surge higher on the opening. Boxed-beef cut-out
values were up 82 cents to $145.53 as compared with $146.69 last week at this
time. Feeder cattle hit contract highs for the 4th session in a row.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (AUG) 6/25/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range, but trending higher which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The next upside objective is 90.90. The market
has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Support should
be encountered at 89.25 and below there at 88.60. Market resistance is at 90.40
and then again at 90.90. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a
close over the 9-bar moving average.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

6/24/2004

The hog market pushed lower and gave back most of
Wednesday’s gains as weakness in bellies and a steady to lower tone in the cash
market helped pressure. Weakness in loin prices helped to pressure the market
and positioning ahead of the USDA Hogs and Pigs report for release on Friday
helped to trigger long liquidation selling. The stronger demand for bellies and
red meat in general this year has been the primary catalyst for the bull trend
but the USDA report could remind traders that 2004 pork production is likely at
a record high and hog slaughter through the summer could be 1-2% above last
years pace. The 2-day lean index for the period ending June 22nd was 79.97, up
51 cents from the previous session and up from 79.25 one week previous.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (AUG) 6/25/2004: The defensive setup, with
the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness.
Resistance levels comes in at 75.87 and 77.20 today, while support is around
73.87 and then 73.20. The downside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average is
a negative signal. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce
a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The next downside
target is now at 73.20.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

September cocoa traded weaker Thursday with
prices challenging the lower end of the recent consolidation range. The bears
seemed to have the upper hand this session as expectations for a world cocoa
surplus, a lack of political unrest in the Ivory Coast while timely rains there
are keeping soil conditions favorable kept futures under pressure. Rainfall in
Ivory Coast between Jun11th-20th was reported to be enough to keep growing
conditions good. Volume has been thin this week with producer hedging limiting
gains and industry buying providing light support on breaks. Critical support
for Sept cocoa is at $1,331.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (SEP) 06/25/04 The close below the 1st
swing support could weigh on the market. Cocoa should run into resistance at
1345 and above there at 1355 with support at 1330 and 1325. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is
1324.75. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday
bounce.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

September Coffee pushed lower after a steady
opening as light speculative long liquidation selling and a lack of threatening
weather on the horizon helped to pressure. However, futures managed to hold
support at the 75.80-74.80 zone as selling slowed. With uncertainty for the
extended forecast models from Brazil on Monday morning and the short-term
oversold condition, it seems unlikely for sellers to be too aggressive on Friday
and a short-covering bounce is likely.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (SEP) 6/25/04 The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. Momentum studies are declining, but
have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside objective is now at 75.10. The
Coffee contract should run into resistance at 76.80 and above there at 77.30
with support at 75.7 and 75.10. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the
close remains below the 9-day moving average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

October sugar pushed higher on the session as the
lack of new short-term news, bullish expectations for the 2004/2005 season due
to an expected world production deficit and bullish longer-term implications if
the EU dismantles the producer subsidy system helped to support trade and
commission house buying. Trader 4 days inside of Friday’s range keeps the market
under the bearish influence of the reversal but the longer the market goes
without downside follow-through confirmation selling, the less likely a break
will become. The EU sold 32,050 tons of white sugar for export at their weekly
tender as compared with trade expectations at 20,000-90,000 tons.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (OCT) 6/25/2004: There could be more
upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance.
Swing resistance comes in at 7.84, with support found at 7.52. The close above
the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The
crossover up in the daily stochastics is a bullish signal. The near-term upside
target is at 7.84.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

6/24/2004

December cotton surged higher led by strong
follow-through technical buying from the reversal on Wednesday and solid export
shipments. Weekly export sales came in at 259,600 bales as compared with trade
expectations at 250,000-350,000 bales. Old crop sales were at 137,800 bales as
compared with cancellations of 62,700 bales necessary each week to reach the
USDA projection. Cumulative sales have reached 103.4% of the USDA forecast for
the season as compared with 106.7% on average for this time of the year.
Shipments came in at 367,500 bales as compared with expectations of
320,000-380,000 bales. Exchange deliverable stocks fell to 220,201 bales from
222,600 bales the previous day.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (OCT) 6/25/2004: A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market
has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. Next resistance area comes in at 54.33 and then again at 55.61,
while support is targeted at 51.68 and 50.31. A bullish signal was given with an
upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The next upside objective is 55.61.