Good Zone For The QQQs
What Tuesday’s Action Tells
You
Yesterday’s market action was sloppy following
the news rally on Monday. The Dow, at -0.8% and the QQQs -1.2%, gave back almost
all of Monday’s gains while the SPX at 1149.10, -0.6%, and the Nasdaq, 2040,
-0.9%, gave back over 60% of their Monday gains. NYSE volume did increase a
touch to 1.48 billion and the volume ratio flip-flopped down to 36 from 82 on
Monday while breadth was -416. Primary sectors were a non-event and they were
all off small except the RTH which was -1.2%. The XAU — which I don’t consider
a primary sector — obviously it has its day now — was -3.2% on the move
on all of the dollar noise.
It’s amusing watching the empty suit on TV telling
you that the market was down because the dollar was up and of course he is the
same guy who told you on previous occasions that the market was down because
the dollar sold off. It’s the same with interest rates and the will-he-or-won’t-he
story with Greenspan after every economic report that comes up. If the recovery
numbers are even one half valid of course interest rates are going to
rise — that’s how the business cycle works, so its when, not
if, and that’s why the TLTs get shorted every time they stick their head
up, especially against long index proxy positions.
| size=2> | Wednesday
2/25 |
Thursday
2/26 |
Friday 2/27 |
Monday
3/1 |
Tuesday
3/2 |
| color=#0000ff>Index | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SPX | |||||
| color=#0000ff>High | 1145.24 | 1147.23 | 1151.68 | 1157.45 | 1156.54 |
| color=#0000ff>Low | 1138.71 | 1138.62 | 1141.80 | 1144.95 | 1147.31 |
| color=#0000ff>Close | 1143.67 | 1144.91 | 1144.90 | 1155.97 | 1149.10 |
| color=#0000ff>% | +0.4 | +0.1 | 0 | +1.0 | -0.6 |
| color=#0000ff>Range | 6.5 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| color=#0000ff>% Range | 76 | 73 | 31 | 88 | 21 |
| color=#0000ff>INDU | 10601 | 10580 | 10584 | 10678 | 10591 |
| color=#0000ff>% | +0.3 | -0.2 | +.04 | +0.9 | -0.8 |
| color=#0000ff>Nasdaq | 2023 | 2033 | 2030 | 2058 | 2040 |
| color=#0000ff>% | +0.9 | +0.5 | -0.1 | +1.4 | -0.9 |
| color=#0000ff>QQQ | 36.59 | 36.68 | 36.60 | 37.03 | 36.61 |
| color=#0000ff>% | +0.6 | +0.3 | -0.2 | +1.3 | -1.2 |
| color=#0000ff>NYSE | |||||
| color=#0000ff>T. VOL | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| color=#0000ff>U. VOL | 947 | 888 | 888 | 1.17 | 532 |
| color=#0000ff>D. VOL | 381 | 468 | 597 | 259 | 931 |
| color=#0000ff>VR | 71 | 65 | 60 | 82 | 36 |
| color=#0000ff>4 MA | 43 | 52 | 60 | 69 | 61 |
| color=#0000ff>5 RSI | 49 | 52 | 52 | 74 | 56 |
| color=#0000ff>ADV | 2187 | 2071 | 2185 | 2508 | 1436 |
| color=#0000ff>DEC | 1084 | 1209 | 1091 | 791 | 1852 |
| color=#0000ff>A-D | +1103 | +862 | +1094 | +1717 | -416 |
| color=#0000ff>4 MA | -188 | +264 | +766 | +1194 | +814 |
| color=#0000ff>SECTORS | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SMH | +1.8 | +0.5 | -1.8 | +2.3 | -0.2 |
| color=#0000ff>BKX | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| color=#0000ff>XBD | +1.7 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.9 | -0.3 |
| color=#0000ff>RTH | +0.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -1.2 |
| color=#0000ff>CYC | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.6 | -0.9 |
| color=#0000ff>PPH | -0.2 | -.06 | -0.4 | +0.3 | -0.9 |
| color=#0000ff>OIH | +0.3 | +1.0 | +.03 | +2.8 | +0.3 |
| color=#0000ff>BBH | +0.9 | +2.5 | +1.2 | +0.2 | -0.2 |
| color=#0000ff>TLT | +0.9 | -0.4 | +0.9 | -.05 | -0.6 |
| color=#0000ff>XAU | -1.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.1 | -3.2 |
^next^
For Active Traders
Resting on Monday’s laurels was the choice in
this corner yesterday other than the short side of the SMH going South from the
descending triangle after 12:00 PM and then re-crossing the 50-day EMA at 41.95
to the downside. It only carried to 41.69 before trading back up to 42.09 then
closing at 41.75. Stopped out of trade with hardly anything to show for it.
That’s the way it goes sometimes.
Energy stocks like BJS, NE, and SLB were almost
Slim Jims for the entire day, but DO and RIG did have intraday retracement.
setups but this corner passed on both because there wasn’t much enthusiasm in
the rest of the group at the time. The OIH did manage to finish small green at
+0.3% for the sixth positive day in succession and all of the focus stocks are
well off their rising 20-day EMAs where we entered for the fourth time this
year. We will probably get another chance and maybe it will be buying the
momentum traders’ shares they bought on the breakout on the previous highs
rather than the retracement
For Today
The QQQ and SPY closed below their 240 EMAs
(20-EMA on 60-minute chart) so that has to change for anything positive on the
upside. The next RST reversal setup for the SPY on the 5, 10 and 15-minute
charts can’t happen unless yesterday’s 115.23 reversal low is taken out and
there is a reversal bar entry. For the Diamonds it would be taking out the
105.85 low ,having closed yesterday at 106.10, below the 240 EMA at 106.35.
Those of you who know the RST should also see that there is a bigger setup below
last Friday’s 105.74 low. Net net, I draw the horizontal line to cross those
lows and just have to watch the price action when it gets there but I have
anticipated a course of action in advance and there is no emotion involved.
The QQQs went out in a potential RST on the
5-minute chart but of course there has been no entry above the high of the low
bar yet. The QQQs closed at 36.62 with the 89-day EMA at 36.10 and 50-day EMA
just above 36.77, so we’re in a good zone for the Qs.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
P.S. You can finally learn
what traders have been asking me to teach them for years—