Greenspan Again Today?
The
resolution of the range started in price yesterday on
light volume. The
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) gapped up some on the open, ran to 1700 by the third
bar, which from Friday’s 1676 close and then gave us a 1-2-3 short entry below
1684. Other than a lunch-hour .38 retracement up to the 1700 intraday high, the
downtrend resumed at 1:45 p.m. and closed at 1629.93. The
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) did
essentially the same thing, with a 1-2-3 short entry below 1210.45, less than a
.38 retracement and then an afternoon trend down to close at 1191.03. Both 1-2-3
entries were below the eight-period moving average of the lows. Simple entries,
large profits. The thing is, most traders don’t take them because they don’t
believe the obvious or what is and add too much of their own “if this”
and “if that” clutter. Daytrading
is motion, and you must go with it
without preconceived ideas.
In addition to the index
plays, there were many trade-through continuation shorts in all of the obvious
culprits. NYSE volume was below average at 987 million. Blocks dropped way off
to 17,745. The volume ratio was 27 and breadth was slightly negative. The Nasdaq
volume was even lighter at 1.345 billion, or 75% of its average, and lightest of
the last five trading days. The volume ratio was slightly better than the NYSE
at 35. The Nasdaq closed at 1988.56, below the 2,000 mark for the third time
since June 18 and is staring down the recent swing-point low at 1934.67. The NDX
finished -2.6%, SPX -1.6%, and the Dow -1.4%. The S&P 500 is now down 10%
year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite is -20% year-to-date. The Dow with a
relatively better performance by the Basics is down 3.4%.
Away from the tech wreck,
which is the primary influence on the S&P 500 and, of course, the NDX 100
and Nasdaq, you have the mid-cap proxies, the MDYs and the IJRs, which are the
proxies for the S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund. They are both above their
200-day EMAs, with the IJRs being the relatively stronger of the two above all
of its EMAs. There is another market out there other than tech that is going
sideways after the April rally, rather than down on a larger retracement.
|
(September
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
5.00
|
 6.20  |
 3.85 Â
|
Stocks
Today
There are obviously slim
pickings on the longside from the daily charts. We’re in a reflex mode after
yesterday’s action. Stocks that give reasonable setups on the daily charts on
the longside are
(
MCHP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), use the 200-day EMA as your pivot
point, long or short, and if the Semis get going, if we’re in an up day today,
if they come for them, keep
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ELNT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
IDTI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
on your screen.
Other long setups:
(
CCR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LNCR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SLM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
MYL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Also, two reflex stocks for today, and
certainly are continuation short setups on the daily charts
(
NVDA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QLGC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
but they’re also in good position as reflex longs off the intraday charts. If
you take any continuation short, I’d take second-entry shorts in both of those
stocks.
Continuation short setups
from the daily charts are the BBH’s,
(
PDLI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
HGSI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CHIR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WLP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
OMC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DJ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
XLNX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
VRSN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Keep a good focus on the
QQQs today down around this 40-39.25 level, pretty strong support. There will
probably be some good reflex rallies if we do pop down to those levels.
Have a good trading day.
Five-minute chart of
Friday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Friday’s NYSE TICKS
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