Have You Looked At This Chart Lately?
I apologize for the
brevity of today’s column, I had several commitments after the close
and my son is fighting off a persistent fever, I simply could not spend adequate
time putting together a lengthy column. Nonetheless, the market may have
finally tipped its hand given that we have finally closed below the critical 970
level. Will this result in yet another bounce back into the upper ranges of the
trading range, or is there a more ominous tone? My gut says there may be some
more downside. Yes, my bias is bearish in the long run — you know that — but
the recent spike up in bond yields has potentially thrown cold water on the
fragile recovery that seems to be developing. Most “quality” macro analysis
only predicts a short burst in recovery before weakness again persists, but
perhaps the analysis is changing yet again.
So, from a trading standpoint,
HVT remains pretty scarce, I have continued to
focus on set-ups off the 5-minute chart and longer, this to me seems the most
reasonable approach. However, if the market drifts lower from here, look for a
pick up in volatility, and as a result some good HVT
opportunities.
Technically, the neckline on the monthly S&P
chart has now been violated,
This potentially sets up the possibility of a
move towards 928 based on a cursory glance of the charts. Yes, this could be
yet another head fake, but it seems as though the tea leaves are sensing
something else other than the relatively positive economic reports. Could it be
the escalating deficits, the laughable Fed policies, the spike in interest
rates? I simply do not know, perhaps it is a case of buy the rumor; sell the
fact. I am not sure I buy that though.
At any rate, get ready, the market seems ready to
serve up something.
| Support/Resistance Numbers for S&P and Nasdaq Futures |
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Oh, and yes, the intra-day picks worked out just
spectacularly yesterday, although it was a nail biter until the final hour, but
it goes to show that sticking to your game plan will in the long run yield
results despite the periodic set-back.
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions.