Here are the 4 economic numbers that may drive today’s market
Stock
index futures opened Tuesday’s session lower as relief that Hurricane Katrina
wasn’t as bad as feared gave way to concern that storm damage could further
tighten oil supplies. The slide was interrupted after the first half hour by a
surprisingly upbeat Consumer Confidence number. But, the euphoria was
short-lived as crude oil hit another new all-time high, and the selling
continued with the TRIN, the A/D line, and the VIX all confirming. The futures
clawed their way back up through the lunchtime lull but were undermined again
when the minutes from the August FOMC meeting were released and revealed that
Greenspan and Co. were concerned about inflationary pressures.
The
barrage of economic reports continues tomorrow at 8:30 ET with a first look at
Q2 GDP, which is supposed to remain steady at 3.4%. The Chicago PMI
follows at 10:00, but the real focus will be on the weekly energy numbers from
the API and the Energy Dept.
Do You Need To Be Right
All the Time?
Trading isn’t about perfection or being right all the time. Trading is about
making do with existing conditions and doing the best you can with what you
have before you. Generally, you have a choice between being wrong more
often and taking larger profits relative to your losses, or trying to be right
more often and taking larger losses relative to your profits. For many
traders, the desire to be right is unconsciously one of the core motivations to
play this game.
Perfection and the need to be right are unattainable ideals that warp, corrupt,
and turn good into bad, profits into losses, and winners into losers. Perfection
means missing a fill by one tick because that one tick is more important that
making money. Perfection means not taking a profit and then watching that profit
turn into a loss because the need to be right is more important than making
money. Perfection means passing up profitable trades because they weren’t
perfect enough even though those set-ups could have made money. The need
to be right means hoping a loss comes back to let you out even, because taking a
loss would blemish your perfect win %. Perfection and the need to be right when
it comes to trading, to put it bluntly, is for losers.
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Daily Pivot Points for 8-31-05
| Symbol | Pivot | Â Â Â Â Â R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| INDU | 10408.12 | 10466.24 | 10519.66 | 10577.78 | 10354.70 | 10296.58 | 10243.16 |
| SPX | 1206.85 | 1212.62 | 1216.84 | 1222.61 | 1202.63 | 1196.86 | 1192.64 |
| ES U5 | 1208.42 | 1215.33 | 1221.92 | 1228.83 | 1201.83 | 1194.92 | 1188.33 |
| SP U5 | 1207.00 | 1212.30 | 1215.80 | 1221.10 | 1203.50 | 1198.20 | 1194.70 |
| YM U5 | 10415.67 | 10477.33 | 10539.67 | 10601.33 | 10353.33 | 10291.67 | 10229.33 |
| BKX | 97.29 | 97.76 | 98.30 | 98.77 | 96.75 | 96.28 | 95.74 |
| SOX | 467.56 | 471.07 | 473.51 | 477.02 | 465.12 | 461.61 | 459.17 |
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Weekly Pivot Points for Week of 8-29-05
| Symbol | Pivot | Â Â Â Â Â R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| INDU | 10474.09 | 10564.20 | 10731.11 | 10821.22 | 10307.18 | 10217.07 | 10050.16 |
| SPX | 1212.76 | 1221.30 | 1237.49 | 1246.03 | 1196.57 | 1188.03 | 1171.84 |
| ES M5 | 1213.92 | 1223.08 | 1240.17 | 1249.33 | 1196.83 | 1187.67 | 1170.58 |
| SP M5 | 1213.93 | 1222.87 | 1239.83 | 1248.77 | 1196.97 | 1188.03 | 1171.07 |
| YM M5 | 10484.33 | 10577.67 | 10750.33 | 10843.67 | 10311.67 | 10218.33 | 10045.67 |
| BKX | 98.21 | 99.29 | 101.43 | 102.51 | 96.07 | 94.99 | 92.85 |
| SOX | 466.37 | 470.87 | 477.73 | 482.23 | 459.51 | 455.01 | 448.15 |
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have, and have a great trading week!
Chris Curran
Chris Curran started his trading career at the
age of 22 with a national brokerage firm. He combines fundamentals and
technicals to get the big picture on the market. Chris has been trading for 15
years, starting full time in 1997, and has never had a losing year as a
full-time trader.