Here’s A Good Plan For Today
The September S&P
futures (SPU and ESU) opened Thursday’s session with a small +.75
point gap to the upside after Jobless Claims posted a 4th straight week under
400,000 and the Producer Price Index offered no surprises. The TRIN opened
below 1.0 but quickly moved up and provided a good filter for avoiding long
trades the first 30 minutes. Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and First Chicago
were good sellers off the open and local liquidation snowballed the effect. The
contract found support off buy-side divergence at Wednesday’s low at 979.75
before taking a small bounce and becoming pinned in a 1-point range for the next
30 minutes. Some light broker buying was able to give the futures the push they
needed through Daily Pivot resistance at 986, before one last thrust to the high
of the session at 991.75. The rest of the session turned into a 2-3 point “chop
and slop” fest that was probably due to the coming options expiration and was
better left alone (see chart).
                               
The September S&P 500 futures closed Thursday’s
session with a gain of +3.00 points, and finished in the middle 1/3 of its daily
range. Volume in the September ES was estimated at 503,000 contracts, which was
ahead of Wednesday’s pace but still below average. On a daily basis, the
contract posted a spinning top, reflecting the indecision in the market, and is
pinned between its 50-day MA resistance at 987.50 and its 20-day MA support at
982.50. The VIX posted an inside day, and wasn’t able to confirm Wednesday’s
inverted hammer.Â
Friday is another heavy economic data day,
starting with the NY Empire State Index at 8 am ET, then the Consumer Price
Index at 8:30 am ET, the Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization reports at
9:15 am ET, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index right after
the open at 9:45 am ET. With it being a Friday in August, and monthly options
expiry, it’s gonna be a good day to call it a day early.
Note: At the time I wrote this, a power
outage at a Con Edison plant in NYC had hit cities as far west as Cleveland.Â
The NYSE is expected to open at the normal time, but if it is unable to, the CME
agreed to delay opening the futures markets also.
Daily Pivots for 8-15-03
| Symbol | Pivot | Â Â Â Â Â R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| COMP | 1694.05 | 1706.57 | 1712.84 | 1725.36 | 1687.78 | 1675.26 | 1668.99 |
| INDU | 9287.98 | 9357.15 | 9403.73 | 9472.90 | 9241.40 | 9172.23 | 9125.65 |
| NDX | 1246.98 | 1258.92 | 1265.93 | 1277.87 | 1239.97 | 1228.03 | 1221.02 |
| SPX | 987.59 | 994.83 | 999.14 | 1006.38 | 983.28 | 976.04 | 971.73 |
| ESU | 986.25 | 993.25 | 998.75 | 1005.75 | 980.75 | 973.75 | 968.25 |
| SPU | 986.33 | 993.17 | 998.63 | 1005.47 | 980.87 | 974.03 | 968.57 |
| NDU | 1245.33 | 1255.67 | 1265.83 | 1276.17 | 1235.17 | 1224.83 | 1214.67 |
| NQU | 1245.17 | 1255.83 | 1266.17 | 1276.83 | 1234.83 | 1224.17 | 1213.83 |
| BKX | 884.21 | 892.36 | 896.96 | 905.11 | 879.61 | 871.46 | 866.86 |
| SOX | 393.05 | 398.10 | 400.97 | 406.02 | 390.18 | 385.13 | 382.26 |
| DIA | 93.03 | 93.65 | 94.20 | 94.82 | 92.48 | 91.86 | 91.31 |
| QQQ | 30.92 | 31.17 | 31.44 | 31.69 | 30.65 | 30.40 | 30.13 |
| SPY | 99.19 | 99.87 | 100.43 | 101.11 | 98.63 | 97.95 | 97.39 |
| SMH | 32.47 | 32.88 | 33.13 | 33.54 | 32.22 | 31.81 | 31.56 |
Fair Value & Program Levels
Fair Value — (0.78)
Buy Premium — 0.38
Sell Discount — (1.98)
Closing Premium – (2.81)
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have, and good luck with your trading on Friday!
P.S. Learn to trade the E-minis in my new
interactive CD-ROM training module! Click
here for details.
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