Here’s How To Take Advantage Of The Up Bias In Front Of The Long Weekend
What Thursday’s Action Tells
You
The market action yesterday, and in fact, for
the
past two days, consists of the 40 minutes of advances on Friday. The SPX
[$SPX.X]$SPX.X] at 1152.11 and the Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) at 10,694, were -0.5%
and
0.4%, while the Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s were each -0.8%,
offsetting their Friday rise. The SPX won’t have any decent follow through
unless techs join the parade again, other than these one-day wonders and
back to
go again.
NYSE volume was 1.46 billion, the volume
ratio
43, and breadth -425, which is the first negative day after five plus days in
succession. You see the short-term overbought numbers on the table for the 4
MAs
of the volume ratio and breadth, so you can never be surprised at any
retracement of short-term action, and it is very common after an initial
breakout to new levels. It’s the second entry and follow through above the
SPX
1155.38 high that matters and then do the Nasdaq and QQQs go with
it?
Yesterday’s SPX range of 6.3 points was the fourth
day of the past nine days under 7 points, so the current “big day, small
day” syndrome persists. The travel range for the SPX and futures yesterday
was just drift.
| size=2> |
Friday
2/6 |
Monday
2/9 |
Tuesday
2/10 |
Wednesday
2/11 |
Thursday
2/12 |
| color=#0000ff>Index | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SPX | |||||
| color=#0000ff>High |
1142.79
|
1144.46
|
1147.02
|
1158.89
|
1157.76 |
| color=#0000ff>Low |
1128.39
|
1139.21
|
1138.70
|
1142.33
|
1151.44 |
| color=#0000ff>Close |
1142.76
|
1139.80
|
1145.54
|
1157.66
|
1152.11 |
| color=#0000ff>% |
+1.3
|
-0.3
|
+0.5
|
+1.1
|
-0.5 |
| color=#0000ff>Range |
14.4
|
5.2
|
8.3
|
16.6
|
6.3 |
| color=#0000ff>% Range |
100
|
11
|
82
|
92
|
11 |
| color=#0000ff>INDU |
10593
|
10579
|
10614
|
10738
|
10694 |
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.9
|
-0.1
|
+0.3
|
+1.2
|
-0.4 |
| color=#0000ff>Nasdaq |
2064
|
2061
|
2075
|
2090
|
2074 |
| color=#0000ff>% |
+2.2
|
-0.2
|
+0.7
|
+0.7
|
-0.8 |
| color=#0000ff>QQQ |
37.13
|
37.12
|
37.20
|
37.58
|
37.26 |
| color=#0000ff>% |
+1.8
|
-.03
|
+0.2
|
+1.1
|
-0.8 |
| color=#0000ff>NYSE |
|
|
|
|
|
| color=#0000ff>T. VOL |
1.46
|
1.28
|
1.39
|
1.63
|
1.46 |
| color=#0000ff>U. VOL |
1.25
|
661
|
855
|
1.26
|
623 |
| color=#0000ff>D. VOL |
194
|
610
|
526
|
355
|
806 |
| color=#0000ff>VR |
86
|
52
|
62
|
78
|
43 |
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
56
|
56
|
64
|
69
|
59 |
| color=#0000ff>5 RSI |
63
|
58
|
65
|
77
|
65 |
| color=#0000ff>ADV |
2663
|
1846
|
2164
|
2265
|
1419 |
| color=#0000ff>DEC |
671
|
1457
|
1127
|
1021
|
1844 |
| color=#0000ff>A-D |
+1992
|
+389
|
+1037
|
+1244
|
-425 |
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
+205
|
+280
|
+906
|
+1165
|
+561 |
| color=#0000ff>SECTORS |
|
|
|
|
|
| color=#0000ff>SMH |
+4.3
|
-0.9
|
+0.3
|
+1.7
|
-1.2 |
| color=#0000ff>BKX |
+1.6
|
-0.4
|
+.05
|
+1.2
|
-0.3 |
| color=#0000ff>XBD |
+2.4
|
+0.3
|
-0.3
|
+3.9
|
-0.5 |
| color=#0000ff>RTH |
+1.4
|
-0.3
|
+0.7
|
+0.8
|
-.01 |
| color=#0000ff>CYC |
+2.2
|
+.01
|
+0.6
|
+1.5
|
-0.4 |
| color=#0000ff>PPH |
+0.6
|
-0.8
|
+0.7
|
+0.7
|
-0.7 |
| color=#0000ff>OIH |
+0.9
|
+2.3
|
+2.1
|
+1.0
|
+1.4 |
| color=#0000ff>BBH |
+1.0
|
-0.2
|
+0.8
|
+1.2
|
-.05 |
| color=#0000ff>TLT |
+1.1
|
+0.3
|
-0.6
|
+0.8
|
-0.5 |
| color=#0000ff>XAU |
+4.8
|
+1.0
|
-0.6
|
+2.9
|
-1.7 |
^next^
For Active Traders
Trading yesterday was dull at best in the
major
indices. The QQQs got a little extended on the 20-day 30-minute chart, which
I
have included today. In the Feb. 11 commentary, I said resistance at 37.80
for
the QQQs. Yesterday’s high was 37.70 at the upper band after the move from
the
36.33 support zone, so if you trade QQQs, there was a short side trade that
carried down to 37.26.
We also included the three-year weekly chart
of
the SPX, which is zoomed in from the triple bottom which you see is pushing
the
upper channel into this retracement zone with a four to five number
confluence
above 1150. In the E-minis, the day ended in a flag which breaks out just
above
1155 on your 30-minute chart. Most of the action yesterday from 11:30 a.m.
to
4:00 p.m. ET was just above or below the 1151.75 pivot. If you took the
short
below Wednesday’s 1158.75 high-bar low of 1155.50, it took until a 12:30
p.m.
bar to make the 1150.55 intraday low.
Today’s
Action
For today, the QQQs are back within the
37.40 –
37 box, closing at 37.26 with resistance at 37.75. If the market goes early
red,
and it doesn’t look like it will based on the early futures, then 36.75 – 37
is
the first look on the long side for this corner. Right now, any low below
36.33
finds interest for any up side reflex at the 35.75 – 36 level. If they are
to
take the SPX back above 1155.38, the trade ticket on the ESH4 could be the
flag
breakout above the 1155 level. The
(
DIA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s closed on the 30-minute chart
at
107.30 and a similar flag which gets going again above 107.40, running into
initial resistance at 107.75. Monday is a market holiday, so we start out
today
with the expectation that the bias is up, if there are any intraday
retracements
of note, they could be good plays in front of a last-hour move up into the
weekend.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
P.S. You can finally learn
what traders have been asking me to teach them for years—