Here’s The Range I’m Looking At For Thursday
The December S&P 500
futures (SPZ and ESZ) opened Wednesday’s session with a -8.75 point
gap to the downside after the tone of earnings season took on a sour note after
a series of revenue misses. In the spirit of the “smoke and mirrors” theme of
most earnings seasons, it’s much harder for companies to “fudge” their top line
as opposed to their bottom line. Good broker selling off the open gave an early
test of S2 support at 1,033.25, however, the subsequent bounce found no
follow-through and the sellers took command again. The contract methodically
drifted lower throughout the session to print new lows, until another attempt to
get a bid going just before the bond market closed failed again.
The December S&P 500 futures closed Wednesday’s
session with a loss of -13.00 points and finished with 2 back-to-back down days
in almost a month. Volume in the ES was estimated at 682,000 contracts, which
was ahead of Tuesday’s pace, and right at the daily average. Open interest
picked up slightly on Tuesday’s slight decline, so we’ll continue to watch for a
pattern there. On a daily basis, the contract cracked its 10-day MA, but was
able to settle above its 20-day MA. However, at the time of this writing, the
futures were back under the 20-day MA. The gap down also left a possible island
reversal with the 10/2-3 gap. The S&P 500 cash index (SPX) broke short on the
daily 3-Line Break chart, with a new break price of 1,050. The daily Banking
index (BKX) avoided a break to the short side by a mere 0.46. On an intraday
basis, the 60-min and 13-min ES were able to hold 200-MA and 15-MA support
respectively, setting us up for a game of ping pong range consolidation on
Thursday between these support levels and 60-min declining 15-MA resistance at
1,037.50 (see chart).
On Thursday morning, we have the Weekly Jobless
Claims number at 8:30 am ET. Market players will be looking for another number
comparable to last week’s decline at 385,000. Also look for earnings reports
from BMY, AZN, NET, PCS, and VIA.B before the bell, as well as tech bellwether
MSFT after the closing bell.
Daily Pivots for 10-23-03
| Symbol | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| COMP | 1906.25 | 1915.15 | 1932.22 | 1941.12 | 1889.18 | 1880.28 | 1863.21 |
| INDU | 9640.18 | 9700.11 | 9801.99 | 9861.92 | 9538.30 | 9478.37 | 9376.49 |
| NDX | 1397.75 | 1391.45 | 1397.75 | 1391.45 | 1391.45 | 1397.75 | 1391.45 |
| SPX | 1040.14 | 1034.27 | 1040.14 | 1034.27 | 1034.27 | 1040.14 | 1034.27 |
| ESZ | 1033.75 | 1041.00 | 1051.50 | 1058.75 | 1023.25 | 1016.00 | 1005.50 |
| SPZ | 1031.17 | 1035.83 | 1041.17 | 1045.83 | 1025.83 | 1021.17 | 1015.83 |
| NDZ | 1394.50 | 1403.00 | 1415.00 | 1423.50 | 1382.50 | 1374.00 | 1362.00 |
| NQZ | 1399.50 | 1413.00 | 1434.00 | 1447.50 | 1378.50 | 1365.00 | 1344.00 |
| BKX | 922.25 | 925.56 | 929.16 | 932.47 | 918.65 | 915.34 | 911.74 |
| SOX | 471.32 | 475.30 | 481.81 | 485.79 | 464.81 | 460.83 | 454.32 |
| DIA | 96.38 | 96.79 | 97.38 | 97.79 | 95.79 | 95.38 | 94.79 |
| QQQ | 34.65 | 34.85 | 35.14 | 35.34 | 34.36 | 34.16 | 33.87 |
| SPY | 103.64 | 104.09 | 104.64 | 105.09 | 103.09 | 102.64 | 102.09 |
| SMH | 39.19 | 39.49 | 39.84 | 40.14 | 38.84 | 38.54 | 38.19 |
Fair Value & Program Levels
Fair Value — (1.22)
Buy Premium — (0.54)
Sell Discount — (2.14)
Closing Premium – 0.14
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have, and have a great trading day on Thursday!