Here’s What Gets My Attention Today
The SPX
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925 neckline again that starts with the intraday 965 high back on August 19. On
Tuesday, the carry through after a recross of the 200-day EMA of 905 ran to a
924.25 intraday high. 924 is the .50 retracement to the 1990 low from the all-time
1553 high. The reflex down to 924.25 was to 911.10 in just nine five-minute
bars. Yesterday’s low was 911.70 and the SPX bounced off the 240-EMA twice
before running to the 922 intraday high and closing at 916.91. See your
five-minute charts. This was down less than 1 point on the day.
The Dow
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-0.3%;
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and above its 200-day EMA of 1413. The Dow closed at 8480, just under its
200-day EMA of 8481, while the other major indices closed above. The SMHs closed
at 26.38 vs. its 200-day EMA of 26.36 and yesterday’s intraday low of 2634. I
always look for intraday setups around live pivots like the SMHs right here.
NYSE volume was 1.6
billion, with a volume ratio of 55 and breadth +671. Yesterday was the 34th day
up in the SPX rally after the March 12th 788.90 low. Since the direction has
been up and it hit a Fib number, any intraday short setups get my attention. On
the upside, it’s just a function of staying on the train if it leaves again and
the major indices continue to make higher highs and lows. The BBHs remain well
above the 92.50 200-day EMA, closing at 101.70 after hitting our price objective
of 103, with highs of 103.70 on April 23 and 104.10 on Tuesday. The next price
objective for the BBH is 112, if it clears the current rally highs. The XBD and
BKX both are trading above their 200-day EMAs as are the RTH which is the retail
HOLDR and the CYC, which is the cyclical index, so the major indices have
company for the time being.
There is no great edge in
taking your first major index or sector position after this 34-day rally, as the
percentage gain over the 34 days is pushing the envelope. Stay with the intraday
trading. The rally has been significant as the XBD at +32% and the SMH +27.2%
have been the leaders. When the perception is that there is a market change,
these two sectors are most often the leaders.
The RTH has advanced
+23%, CYC +22%, BKX +21.6%, BBH +21.5%. It is positive that all these
major sectors have outperformed the major indices, where the QQQs were +19.2%,
the Nasdaq +18.9%, SPX +17.1% and the DIAs bringing up the rear at 15.3%. The
916.92
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above it since the October 2000 monthly high as this bear market was unfolding.
The 12-month EMA along with 924 above and the 200-day EMA at 905.66 below are
the most important awareness levels in this upper range of resistance for the
SPX, and you will get good intraday setups either way around these levels. The
QQQ, SMH and Dow are also right at their 12-month EMAs. This 12-month EMA price
zone will be resolved shortly and the synthetic straddles will become very
active, regardless of direction.
Yesterday was the month’s
end and the Generals held the April gains. The SPY closed at 91.91, +8.5% for the
month, while the
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since the Generals have seen this kind of monthly return. The 820 trend method
remains positive on the daily and 60-minute charts so from a position
standpoint, that has to change before the market will change direction in any
significant way.
Have a good trading
day.