Here’s What It WIll Take To Discourage The Sellers

BOND MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

June Bonds finished down 0-27 at 113-14, 0-22 off
the high and 0-05 up from the low.

June 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished down 0-200 at
110-245, 0-155 off the high and 0-035 up from the low.

Once again, the Treasury market came under
a compacted liquidation and managed to reject the selling. However, the economic
information released during the session was patently negative to Treasury
prices. Both initial and ongoing claims declined sharply and more importantly
the Philly Fed Business Survey was surprisingly strong. The only countervailing
force to the bear case was a noted decline of.4 in leading indicators.

Technical Outlook

BONDS (JUN) 04/22/2005: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Momentum studies
trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to
reinforce lower price action. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. The swing indicator gave
a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The
next downside target is now at 112-13. The next area of resistance is around
114-00 and 114-28, while 1st support hits today at 112-25 and below there at
112-13.

TNOTES (JUN) 04/22/2005: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies trending
lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce
lower price action. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is
an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. The outside day down is
a negative signal. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under
the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 110-005. The next
area of resistance is around 111-060 and 111-270, while 1st support hits today
at 110-090 and below there at 110-005.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

4/21/2005

June S&P finished up 21.7 at 1161.5, 2 off the
high and 16.2 up from the low.

June S&P E-Mini closed up 21.75 at 1161.5. This
was 23.75 up from the low and 2.25 off the high.

June Dow closed up 206 at 10226. This was 151 up
from the low and 14 off the high.

The stock market surprised most players with a
significant upward extension. A series of favorable corporate earnings reports
from key bell weather stocks provided the early blip. With scheduled economic
reports contributing to the optimism and crude oil prices also weak, prices were
justified in the rally. However, the market has been bruised in its long term
view and it could take a series of gains to effectively discourage the sellers.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 (JUN) 04/22/2005: The daily stochastics
have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Daily stochastics are
showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move
higher if near term resistance is taken out. The close under the 18-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. With the close
over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive
position. The next upside target is 1176.15. The next area of resistance is
around 1170.60 and 1176.15, while 1st support hits today at 1152.40 and below
there at 1139.75.

SP EMINI (JUN) 04/22/2005: A bullish signal was
given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The stochastics
indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support
higher prices. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend could be turning down. Market positioning is positive with the
close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 1182.25. The next
area of resistance is around 1174.75 and 1182.25, while 1st support hits today
at 1148.75 and below there at 1130.25.

NASDAQ (JUN) 04/22/2005: A bullish signal was
given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Rising from oversold
levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a
close above resistance. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the
longer-term trend could be turning down. Since the close was above the 2nd swing
resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside
follow-through early in the session. The next upside objective is 1474.37. The
next area of resistance is around 1464.25 and 1474.37, while 1st support hits
today at 1433.75 and below there at 1413.38.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

June US Dollar finished up 23 at 8371, 15 off the
high and 38 up from the low.

June Euro finished down 0.31 at 130.7, 0.72 off
the high and 0.28 up from the low.

June Euro Dollar closed down 0.04 at 96.585. This
was 0.01 up from the low and 0.025 off the high.

June Canadian Dollar closed up 0.06 at 80.8. This
was 0.32 up from the low and 0.19 off the high.

June British Pound finished down 1.05 at 190.34,
0.58 off the high and 0.19 up from the low.

June Swiss closed down 0.39 at 84.81. This was
0.2 up from the low and 0.53 off the high.

June Japanese Yen closed down 0.04 at 93.97. This
was 0.46 up from the low and 0.08 off the high.

Certainly the dollar deserved to rally in the
wake of news flow on Thursday. However, given recent action in the dollar, it
might need constant support to mount any kind of follow through. In a
potentially negative story for the dollar, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve
suggested that the current Chinese currency peg was hindering global activity.
In other words, the G-7 might have more ammunition to affect a change in the
yuan. Another important release during the session came from Canada which posted
a very impressive retail sales reading.

Technical Outlook

YEN (JUN) 04/22/2005: Positive momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The major trend
could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
next upside target is 94.41. The next area of resistance is around 94.24 and
94.41, while 1st support hits today at 93.70 and below there at 93.34.

EURO (JUN) 04/22/2005: The close below the 60-day
moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. Rising
stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The cross over
and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend
has turned positive. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily
closing price reversal down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close
was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside target is 131.81. The
next area of resistance is around 131.20 and 131.81, while 1st support hits
today at 130.20 and below there at 129.81.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

4/21/2005

June Gold closed down 2.3 at 434.4. This was 0.8
up from the low and 2.4 off the high.

July Silver finished down 0.12 at 7.262, 0.123
off the high and 0.027 up from the low.

 

The gold market proved its focus with weakness on
Thursday. It is apparent that strengthening economic developments currently have
little effect on gold prices. On the other hand, a strong dollar does have a
direct impact. It would also seem likely that concerns for Chinese growth serve
to spark liquidation in both gold and silver. Even the platinum market, with its
weakness, showed it reliance on ongoing Asian fiscal demand.

Technical Outlook

SILVER (JUL) 04/22/2005: The market back below
the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down.
Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher
price action. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. The market setup is somewhat negative with the
close under the 1st swing support. The next upside objective is 743.6. The next
area of resistance is around 733.7 and 743.6, while 1st support hits today at
718.8 and below there at 713.6.

GOLD (JUN) 04/22/2005: The close below the 40-day
moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. Rising
stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The cross over
and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has
turned up. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close
below the 1st support number. The near-term upside objective is at 438.0. The
next area of resistance is around 436.0 and 438.0, while 1st support hits today
at 432.8 and below there at 431.6.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

June Copper closed down 2.50 at 148.25. This was
1.20 up from the low and 0.15 off the high.

The copper market started out on a weak note and
saw the selling intensify throughout the session. Talk in Shanghai about a
possible Chinese interest rate hike started the selling, a rise in LME stocks
enhanced the selling, while currency exchange comments from Greenspan increased
the pressure even further. In other words, the fear of slowing in China off of
higher rates or a change in the currency peg is a very concerning development
for copper.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

June Crude Oil closed up 0.17 at 54.20. This was
1.20 up from the low and 0.10 off the high.

June Heating Oil closed up 2.51 at 153.80. This
was 3.80 up from the low and 0.50 off the high.

June Unleaded Gas finished up 3.29 at 162.46,
0.34 off the high and 4.56 up from the low.

June Natural Gas finished down 0.04 at 7.11, 0.01
off the high and 0.13 up from the low.

June Propane closed down 0.01 at 0.85. This was
equal to the low and equal to the high.

A divergence between crude oil and unleaded gas
was present Thursday. With another private survey calling for a 320,000 barrel
per day increase in OPEC exports, we can understand the pressure on crude oil
prices. However, much stronger than expected US numbers and a sharp recovery in
US equities could begin to shore up demand expectations. With the gasoline
strength noted in the face of general energy complex weakness, it is clear the
market’s focus is shifting to the products. The weekly natural gas storage
reading showed an injection of 50 bcf which was within the range of
expectations.

Technical Outlook

CRUDE OIL (JUN) 04/22/2005: Rising from oversold
levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a
close above resistance. The close below the 18-day moving average is an
indication the longer-term trend has turned down. The daily closing price
reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. The market
has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term
upside target is at 55.22. The next area of resistance is around 54.85 and
55.22, while 1st support hits today at 53.55 and below there at 52.63.

UNLEADED (JUN) 04/22/2005: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. A positive setup occurred with the close over
the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is 166.30. The next area of
resistance is around 164.91 and 166.30, while 1st support hits today at 160.01
and below there at 156.51.

HEATING OIL (JUN) 04/22/2005: The stochastics
indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support
higher prices. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. There could be more upside follow through since
the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside objective is
157.27. The next area of resistance is around 155.94 and 157.27, while 1st
support hits today at 151.65 and below there at 148.68.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

May Corn finished up 1/2 at 211 1/4, 1/4
off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Corn closed up 1 at 235 3/4.
This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 1/2 off the high.

Ideas of hefty old crop stocks combined with the
outlook for another big crop in 2005 helped to pressure the market early.
Strength in the other grain markets from fund buying has helped support the
bounce this week and fund buyers were quiet this morning. Weekly export sales
came in at 680,100 tonnes as compared with trade expectations at 800,000-1.1
million tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 77.9% of the USDA forecast for the
year as compared with an average of 73.9% for the past 5 years. In addition, the
USDA announced a daily sale of 102,616 tonnes of corn to Japan. The market
managed to hold support on the early break with strength in soybeans helping to
support. With Japan buying US corn again, there was less concerns for export
demand due to the Bt10 woes. Cold and wet weather across the Midwest this
weekend is expected to slow planting progress which also helped support. Support
for July corn comes in at 216 1/4 with resistance at 220 1/4.

Technical Outlook

CORN (MAY) 04/22/2005: The cross over and close
above the 60-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up.
Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher
price action. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates
the longer-term trend has turned up. With the close higher than the pivot swing
number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside
objective is at 213 1/4. The next area of resistance is around 212 1/2 and 213
1/4, while 1st support hits today at 210 and below there at 208 1/4.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

4/21/2005

May Soybeans finished up 7 at 637 3/4, 1 3/4 off
the high and 9 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 5 1/4 at 631
1/2. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.

May Soymeal closed up 2.1 at 196.9. This was 2.9
up from the low and 0.2 off the high.

May Soybean Oil finished up 0.29 at 22.95, 0.07
off the high and 0.35 up from the low.

The lower opening was triggered from
disappointment with the export sales report which came mostly at the lower end
of expectations. Lower oilseed acres in Canada and follow-through technical
buying helped pull the market higher on the session into the mid-day and test of
yesterday’s highs. Current crop year soybean sales were reported at 157,600
metric tons and new crop sales at 110,800, for a combined total of 268,400,
which was at the low end of the range of expectations. Cumulative soybean sales
have reached 94.1% of the USDA forecast for the year, which compares with an
average of 92.8% for the past 5 years. Meal sales came in at 95,600 for current
crop and 300 for new crop, which was towards the upper end of expectations.
Cumulative meal sales have reached 86% of the USDA forecast, which is
significantly higher than the 5-year average of 77.4%. Bean oil sales came in at
7,000 metric tons, which was above expectations. Cumulative oil sales have
reached 60.4% of the USDA forecast, which compares to 77.4% on average for the
past 5 years. Basis bids this morning were steady to higher in the US Midwest.
Stats Canada pegged canola planted acreage at 8.1% below last year which helped
support the bounce. July soybean support comes in at 637 and 633 with 653 1/4 as
next resistance.

Technical Outlook

BEANS (MAY) 04/22/2005: The upside crossover (9
above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend.
Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher
price action. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the
18-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at
647 1/4. The next area of resistance is around 643 1/2 and 647 1/4, while 1st
support hits today at 632 and below there at 624 1/4.

MEAL (MAY) 04/22/2005: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market now above the
18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. The market
setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The next upside objective is 199.3. With a reading over 70, the
9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is
around 198.4 and 199.3, while 1st support hits today at 195.4 and below there at
193.2.

BEANOIL (MAY) 04/22/2005: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The major trend could be turning up with the
close back above the 18-day moving average. With the close over the 1st swing
resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The
near-term upside target is at 23.30. The next area of resistance is around 23.16
and 23.30, while 1st support hits today at 22.74 and below there at 22.46.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

May Wheat finished up 1/4 at 311, 1 1/2 off the high and 2 1/4
up from the low. July Wheat closed down 1/4 at 320 3/4. This was 2 up from the
low and 1 3/4 off the high.

Concerns for a cold weather snap into the
southern plains this weekend which might cause some damage supported the early
bounce; especially Kansas City wheat but the market found a lack of
follow-through buying support on a test of yesterday’s highs. Freezing weather
could cause some damage if the cold weather reaches down to Oklahoma or even
further south. Stats Canada pegged wheat planted acreage at 25.17 million acres
from 25.553 million last year which was seen as slightly supportive. Weekly
export sales came in at 436,800 tonnes as compared with trade expectations at
375,000-575,000 tonnes. Cumulative sales have reached 93.8% of the USDA forecast
for the year, which compares with an average of 89.1% for the past 5 years.
Traders took note of news that France sold 500,000 tonnes of high quality wheat
to China and are negotiating for more. Initial reports from China for the winter
wheat crop are favorable but there is some talk that conditions are too dry in
some areas. July wheat support comes in at 317 1/2 with 325 3/4 as next
resistance.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (MAY) 04/22/2005: The stochastics
indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support
higher prices. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend could be turning down. It is a mildly bullish indicator that
the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is
at 314 1/2. The next area of resistance is around 312 3/4 and 314 1/2, while 1st
support hits today at 309 1/4 and below there at 307 1/4.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

4/21/2005

June Live Cattle finished down 0.07 at 85.45,
0.55 off the high and 0.20 up from the low.

May Feeder Cattle closed down 0.47 at 106.60.
This was 0.25 up from the low and 0.52 off the high.

June cattle traded most of yesterday’s range as
higher cash trade pushed cattle to yesterday’s highs but a lack of
follow-through buying support triggered some long liquidation selling and a test
of yesterday’s lows. Fears that the cash market could put in a near-term top due
to the potential for a gradual increase in feedlot supplies and positioning
ahead of the Cattle-on-Feed report for Friday helped to pressure the market.
Higher trade in the cash market and a positive beef trend this week along with
the discount of June futures to the cash market helped support. Cash cattle
traded $2.00 higher on the week to $94.00 in the southern plains. Boxed beef
cutout values at mid session were up $.05 to $158.36 as compared with $155.30
one week ago.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (JUN) 04/22/2005: A positive indicator was
given with the upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Momentum
studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if
resistance levels are penetrated. The major trend could be turning up with the
close back above the 18-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator
that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at
86.270. The next area of resistance is around 85.800 and 86.270, while 1st
support hits today at 85.070 and below there at 84.800.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

4/21/2005

June Lean Hogs finished down 0.90 at 77.47, 0.77
off the high and 0.17 up from the low.

May Pork Bellies closed down 1.80 at 83.45. This
was 0.40 up from the low and 1.60 off the high.

June hogs pushed sharply lower on the session
with extra weather related marketings, a weaker tone for pork cut-out values and
the premium of futures to the cash market helping to pressure. Pork cut-out
values were down sharply on Wednesday night led by a $2.00 break in loins and
nearly a $3 break in cash bellies. The CME 2-day Lean Hog Index for the period
ending April 19th came in at 69.98, down.05 on the day and up from 68.72 last
week at this time. Contract lows for the third day in a row for August bellies
and higher than expected producer hog marketings due to wet weather in the
Midwest helped pressure.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (JUN) 04/22/2005: Daily stochastics are
showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move
higher if near term resistance is taken out. The close under the 18-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. The market setup
is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next upside
objective is 78.570. The next area of resistance is around 77.950 and 78.570,
while 1st support hits today at 77.020 and below there at 76.700.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

July Cocoa finished down 25 at 1538, 20 off the
high and 1 up from the low.

The market came under selling pressure on
Thursday partly off strength in the dollar. However, the market continues to
talk up good conditions in the mid crop and that applied additional pressure. As
if the dollar and crop conditions weren’t enough, the market also continues to
see selling pressure off the progress toward peace at the Ivory Coast.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (JUL) 04/22/2005: Daily momentum studies
are on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push
through the 1st swing resistance. The close below the 18-day moving average is
an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. The close below the 1st
swing support could weigh on the market. The next upside objective is 1563. The
next area of resistance is around 1548 and 1563, while 1st support hits today at
1528 and below there at 1522.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

July Coffee closed down 2.10 at 122.75. This was
0.40 up from the low and 3.05 off the high.

July coffee managed to rally to a 10-session peak
before closing lower on the session and near the lows of the day. A weak close
in London and a lack of fund buying activity helped to pressure. Ideas that the
market is overbought after the recent surge helped to trigger the late selling.
Traders are positioning ahead of Friday’s Brazil crop estimate. On the first
delivery day, 1138 contracts were posted against the May futures. A holiday in
Brazil kept the commercial trade quiet.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (JUL) 04/22/2005: The major trend has
turned down with the cross over back below the 60-day moving average.
Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move
higher if resistance levels are taken out. The cross over and close above the
18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned
positive. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the
defensive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the
swing pivot. The next upside objective is 126.85. The next area of resistance is
around 124.45 and 126.85, while 1st support hits today at 121.05 and below there
at 120.00.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

July Sugar closed down 0.01 at 8.43. This was
0.01 up from the low and 0.05 off the high.

July sugar closed 1 tick lower on the session as
the early run to new highs for the week failed to attract additional buying
support. The 35 point jump off of Friday’s lows left the market in a slight
overbought condition and fund buyers who have been active this week were on the
sidelines. Talk of lower production from Europe, Cuba and China for the coming
season helped to provide some support in spite of fears of another record cane
crop in Brazil. In addition, Brazil cane demand from the ethanol industry is
expected to be strong. Strength in London helped provide some support with
August closing at the highest level since April 8th.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (JUL) 04/22/2005: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The close under the 18-day moving average
indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside
objective is at 8.50. The next area of resistance is around 8.45 and 8.50, while
1st support hits today at 8.40 and below there at 8.38.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

4/21/2005

July Cotton finished down 0.41 at 54.44, 0.39 off
the high and 0.89 up from the low.

July cotton pushed lower with an inside trading
session as a slowdown in the aggressive merchant buying in the May contract
combined with some economic fears for China helped to trigger light speculative
long liquidation selling. The market was called slightly higher on the opening
due to solid export sales news. Weekly export sales came in at 274,000 bales as
compared with trade expectations at 150,000-250,000 bales. Cumulative sales have
reached 95% of the USDA forecast for the year, which compares with an average of
101.1% for the past 5 years. Shipments came in at a marketing year high at
432,200 bales from trade expectations at near 350,000-450,000 bales.

Technical Outlook

COTTON (JUL) 04/22/2005: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average
is an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The
next upside target is 55.59. The next area of resistance is around 55.07 and
55.59, while 1st support hits today at 53.80 and below there at 53.04.