Here’s What The Market Expects Tomorrow…

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (SEP) 06/24/04: The daily closing price
reversal up is positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term resistance for bonds is at
105.21 and then again at 105.29, while swing support hits at 104.31 and below
there at 104.17. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but
are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside
target is 105.29.

T-NOTES(SEP) The upside closing price reversal on the
daily chart is somewhat bullish. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have
entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 108.29. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number.
Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 108.24 and then again at 108.29,
while swing support hits at 108.11 and below there at 108.02. The upside
crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term
uptrend.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

6/23/2004

The stock market seems to be mired in a range with
the market seeing mostly favorable economic information but the fear of upcoming
events is simply keeping many longs on the sidelines. The stock market should
have been supported by weakness in energy prices but so far the market won’t buy
into lower energy prices until they really begin to show up at the retail level.
The trade expects to see generally favorable US economic information on Thursday
and as long as the numbers aren’t too strong it would seem like the market will
be able to down play the threat of higher interest rates in the next FOMC
meeting.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (SEP) 06/24/04: With the close over the
1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Underlying support comes in at 1136.70 and 1126.75, with overhead resistance at
1150.90 and 1155.15. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above
the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a
crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 1155.15.

S&P E-Mini (SEP): A bullish signal was given with
an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The next upside objective is
1155.56. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close
above the 2nd swing resistance. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at
1151.63 and then again at 1155.56, while swing support hits at 1137.38 and below
there at 1127.06. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close
over the 9-bar moving average.

NASDAQ (SEP) The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. A positive setup
occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The market should run
into resistance at 1510.25 and above there at 1518.88 with support at 1482.75
and 1463.88. Short-term indicators suggest buying dips today. The daily
stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside
target is 1518.9.

MINI DOW (SEP) The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market should
run into resistance at 10537 and above there at 10572 with support at 10406 and
10310. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication.
The next upside target is 10572. A positive setup occurred with the close over
the 1st swing resistance. Short-term indicators suggest buying dips
today.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

The Dollar was down sharply but then managed to
recoil away from the lows. Some traders suggested that when the probe lower
failed to extend many shorts decided to exit rather than ride through the
scheduled US economic numbers on Thursday morning. Once again the main
benefactor of the Dollar weakness was the Yen but the Yen maintained its gains,
even in the face of a Dollar recovery and that shows the leadership status of
the Yen. Weak price Canadian action after strong economic information really
undermines the Canadian from a fundamental perspective.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 06/24/04: YEN (SEP): The market’s close
above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. A
positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Swing
resistance is targeted at 92.60 and above there at 92.74, with the yen finding
support around 92.23 and below there at 92.00. Studies are showing positive
momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The
next upside target is 92.74. Short-term indicators suggest buying dips
today.

EURO (SEP): Momentum studies trending lower at
mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The
next downside objective is now at 1.2028. The market is in a bearish position
with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing support for the Euro
comes in at 1.2028, with overhead resistance at 1.2110. The market’s short-term
trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The gap
down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible
today.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

6/23/2004

Once again the gold market showed a two sided trade
and with the Dollar managing an impressive rise off the overnight lows it’s
understandable that the longs were unable to hold prices up on the initial
rally. However, there would seem to be plenty of potentially supportive
developments for gold and that should serve to keep the bias in the market
pointing upward. Some trader’s think that a return of regularly scheduled
economic information could result in more Dollar gains and that could make any
near term violation of chart support a major issue for gold.

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 06/24/04: SILVER (SEP): With the close
higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.
Initial support for silver is at 586.1 and below there at 582.3 with resistance
likely at 590.0 and 593.1. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average
suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Positive momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target
is 590.0.

GOLD (AUG): Support for gold today comes in near
391.95, while resistance is pegged at 398.75. Momentum studies are trending
higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 398.75. The market’s close
below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

The copper market managed to shut off the aggressive
selling pattern of the prior session and at times Wednesday the market looked
pretty impressive. In other words, the copper market must not have a dominating
bearish view because the bears had plenty of opportunity to jump into fray in
the face of higher prices. Maybe the market was supported by the expectation for
favorable macro economic information from the US and maybe the market was
supported by ideas that Chinese commodity demand is expected to remain strong
even if there is more tightening in that country. In any regard, it is clear
that copper is still in a two sided trade.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

The energy complex initially faded off the bearish
inventory reports but then moderated the losses after the market considered the
offsetting gasoline stocks readings. However, with the API reporting a rather
large crude stock build of 4.8 million barrels one would think that energy
prices would be limited on the upside. However, the gasoline stocks issue could
become the main focal point of the market over the coming weeks, especially as
gasoline demand ramps up seasonally. Adding to the negative tilt were
suggestions from a private group that OPEC July output might reach 30 million
barrels per day. However, it is clear that concerns of violence into the June
30th hand over are discouraging the bear camp. The fact that the Norway strike
continues to extend might also have helped the market discount the negative
statistical information released during the session.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 06/24/04: CRUDE OIL (AUG): The market’s
close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup
for today. Support for crude is keyed on 37.06 and below there at 36.67, with
resistance pegged at 38.09 and 38.73. The market’s short-term trend is negative
as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Daily momentum studies are
on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push
through the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at
38.73.

UNLEADED GAS (AUG): Positive momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target
is 121.79. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a
slightly bullish posture. Resistance today is at 121.79, while support should be
found around 116.39. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests
the short-term trend remains positive.

HEATING OIL (AUG): The market’s close below the pivot
swing number is a mildly negative setup. Heating oil should encounter support
around 98.13, with resistance is at 103.73. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies
are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if
resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at
103.73.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

The market surged higher after the lower opening as
several weather forecasts from prominent forecasts calling for a ridging pattern
in the Midwest into early July helped support active short-covering and new
buying in the corn market. Funds were noted buyers of near 5000 contracts by
mid-session. Futures are considered oversold after a break in excess of 60 cents
off of the June highs. December corn hit the key technical downside objective of
274 3/4 in overnight trade and a turn higher from this key technical point added
to the positive tone. One of the few factors which could significantly disrupt
the pollination process for corn would be high temperatures into early July and
just the hint of heat as a possibility for this time frame has supported
significant buying. The market needs to see record high yields in order to avoid
another year of tight stocks ahead. The NDCR in China commented that China grain
inventories were falling rapidly but there has been little detail on there
comments but cash dealers indicate rising feed prices in China. Weekly export
sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near 450,000-600,000
tons as compared with 620,600 tons last week. December corn support comes in at
281 3/4 and 276 with 288 1/4 and 293 1/2 as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (DEC) 06/24/04: Daily stochastics are trending
lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is
now at 273 3/4. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a
bullish indication. Market resistance comes in at 290 3/4 today, with support at
273 3/4. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below
the 9-day moving average. The outside day up is a positive signal. The upside
closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

6/23/2004

Funds were active buyers on the session (near 4000
contracts through late in the day) and helped drive the market sharply higher
and to new highs late in the session. The strong cash market and strong demand
for meal has nearby futures well supported while the emergence of a high
pressure ridge on the longer-term weather maps has supported new crop soybeans
and corn. Processors continue to bid up soybeans for spot delivery. The
reliability of the 10-day forecast models is certainly questionable but after
recent weakness in old crop futures, a return to more normal trade with China
and a minor weather threat seems to be enough to shut-off the fund selling in
new crop and trigger more speculative and commercial buying. An expert on Asian
rust with Embrapa, Brazil’s crop research agency has estimated losses this
season at 4.7 million tons as compared with 3.4 million tons last year. Strength
in the China and Malaysia markets overnight added to the more positive tone
today. Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in
near 0-75,000 tons for soybeans, 20,000-50,000 tons for meal and 1,000-5,000
tons for oil. The May crush report will also be released before the opening.
Support for November soybeans moves up to 686 and the move to a new 12-session
high leaves 705 1/4 and 710 as next resistance.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (NOV) 06/24/04: Since the close was above
the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see
more upside follow-through early in the session. The next area of resistance is
around 708 and 716 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 679 1/2 and below there
at 659 3/4. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone
will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 716
3/4.

MEAL (DEC): Momentum studies are trending higher from
mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 227.0. First resistance comes
in at 224.5, with support at 216.0. The market’s short-term trend is positive on
a close above the 9-day moving average. The market’s close above the 2nd swing
resistance number is a bullish indication.

BEAN OIL (DEC): The market’s close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily
stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside
target is 25.00. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market
is in a slightly bullish posture. Daily swing resistance is found at 24.74 and
above there at 25.00. Support should be encountered at 24.21 and
23.94.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

The strength in the other markets helped support a
recovery bounce in wheat after the market hit the lowest level since October
28th early in the session. The higher close on the session may help ease the
technical selling on the market but a drier forecast into Thursday for the
plains could keep seasonal harvest selling pressure in tact. The reversal along
with continued fears that quality problems could increase as the soft red winter
wheat harvest moves north could support a more positive tone. Slow export news
and fears of a bumper crop in Europe this year keep the export tone bearish.
Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near
300,000-500,000 tons as compared with 590,500 tons last week. September wheat
support comes in at 350 with 355 3/4 and 358 as resistance.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (DEC) 06/24/04: The daily closing price
reversal up is positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. Look for near-term support at 361 1/2
and below there at 357, with resistance levels at 368 1/2 and 371. The market’s
close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend
remains negative. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold
levels. The next downside target is 357.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

6/23/2004

The market pushed sharply higher with news that cash
cattle traded $1.00 higher in Texas at $88 as packers were caught short bought
and needed to secure inventory to meet the bookings for the 4th of July holiday.
Higher beef prices and new all-time highs in Feeder Cattle added to the bullish
tone.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (AUG) 06/24/04: The daily stochastics have
crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 90.85.
Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture
is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session.
Support should be encountered at 88.10 and below there at 86.55. Market
resistance is at 90.25 and then again at 90.85. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

6/23/2004

The August contract experienced an inside trading
session but closed sharply higher on the session and near the highs of the day.
Bellies were well supported by the friendly weekly cold storage report. The
surge in cattle prices and another decline in weights helped support. Weekly
average weights for Iowa/Minnesota for the week ending June 19th came in at
262.8 pounds, down from 263.6 pounds the previous week but higher than the 261.5
pounds posted for the same week last year. While cash markets were lower, the
discount of futures to cash helped support. The 2-day lean index for the period
ending June 21st was 79.46, up 21 cents from the previous session and up from
79.31 one week previous.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (AUG) 06/24/04: With the close over the 1st
swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
Resistance levels comes in at 76.97 and 77.35 today, while support is around
75.87 and then 75.15. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above
the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should
accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside
objective is now at 75.15.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

The September cocoa forged an extremely tight range
Wednesday and that would seem to play against the bear camp. In other words, the
failure to violate support creates the opinion that consolidation support is
solid. We would have expected cocoa to weaken considering that Brazil announced
a 14% increase in cocoa product exports for May. Reports that Nigerian cocoa
farmers are attempting to restart or revitalize cocoa growing plantations might
be considered a long term negative for prices but that should not be an impact
on near term price action.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (SEP) 06/24/04 The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Cocoa should run into
resistance at 1353 and above there at 1358 with support at 1340 and 1332.
Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next
downside target is 1331.75.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

September Coffee ended slightly higher in choppy,
two-sided trade with light volume noted as speculative long liquidation has
slowed to a trickle after last weeks collapse and speculative buying increased
slightly late in the session. There are still no damaging cold fronts on the
longer-term maps which extend into the first week of July. Cash markets have
slowed in Brazil due to recent weaker prices and increased availability of new
crop supplies.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (SEP) 6/24/04 The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside objective is
now at 75.05. The Coffee contract should run into resistance at 77.45 and above
there at 78.35 with support at 75.8 and 75.05. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

October sugar inched higher in quiet trade finding
support from a lack of producer selling and light trade house buying. The
longer-term fundamentals remain bullish with the projection for a significant
world production deficit. However, the harvest of the world’s largest producer
is in full swing and Russia, the world’s largest importer has been slow buyers.
The EU Commission wants to cut EU sugar prices by more than 40% and scrap the
intervention system in an effort to reform the system. The plan would cut
production quotas by 2.8 million tons from 17.4 million at present. If accepted,
the plan would likely cut production significantly in the years just ahead but
there would be little impact for this year.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (OCT) 06/24/04: It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Swing resistance
comes in at 7.70, with support found at 7.48. The market’s short-term trend is
positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. The next downside objective is now at 7.48.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

6/23/2004

December cotton hit new contract lows early in the
session and closed 83 higher on the day. The reversal from a contract low is
considered bullish technical action and could support more buying and
short-covering early tomorrow. Weekly export sales, released before the opening,
are expected to come in near 250,000-350,000 bales as compared with 248,400
bales last week. The turn higher in grain prices and hopes that next weeks USDA
acreage report could show declining planting prospects provided some support.
Shipments are expected near 320,000-380,000 bales as compared with 386,100 bales
last week.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (OCT) 06/24/04: The market’s close below the
9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It
is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing
number. Next resistance area comes in at 52.30 and then again at 52.94, while
support is targeted at 50.81 and 49.96. Momentum studies are declining, but have
fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 49.96. The 9-day RSI
under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The sell-off took
the market to a new contract low. The daily closing price reversal up is
positive.