Here’s What Traders Are Saying About Initial Claims
BOND MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Bonds closed down 0-18 at 111-05. This
was 0-05 up from the low and 0-16 off the high.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished down 0-125
at 111-300, 0-120 off the high and 0-025 up from the low.
The Treasury market appeared to surrender
to the constant talk of rising interest rates and or the potential increased
threat of inflation. While the Treasury market could just as easily be supported
by ultra high energy prices derailing the economy, the market seems to have
shifted away from that sentiment and toward the inflation prospect. The Fed also
continued to apply the pressure to Treasury by once again explaining the slow
and measured approach they plan to take in raising interest rates. Some traders
also suggested that they liquidating longs ahead of what is expected to be a
significant decline in initial claims. However, the claims decline might be more
of catch up function to the hurricane situation than it is to a real improvement
in the jobs picture.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 10/07/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market’s close
below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains
negative. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s negative
setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside objective is
now at 110-18. The next area of resistance is around 111-17 and 111-31, while
1st support hits today at 110-27 and below there at 110-18.
TNOTES (DEC) 10/07/2004: The close below the
40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down.
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend
to support reversal action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term
was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. There could be some early
pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd
swing support. The next downside objective is now at 111-180. The next area of
resistance is around 112-060 and 112-155, while 1st support hits today at
111-235 and below there at 111-180.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
10/6/2004
December S&P finished up 6.4 at 1142.8, 0.9 off
the high and 9.1 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed up 6.25 at 1142.75.
This was 9.25 up from the low and 1 off the high.
December Dow closed up 59 at 10237. This was 82
up from the low and 5 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished up 59 at 10237, 5
off the high and 83 up from the low.
The stock market continues to behave like the
energizer bunny as rising energy prices and slack economic forecasts don’t seem
to undermine investor sentiment. The stock market might have been happy with Fed
comments that measured interest rates hikes meant a steady pace of increases and
that economic data would still determine when rates are changed. Even more
surprisingly stock prices managed to trade mostly positive during the session
despite more downgrades in specific stocks. In short the trade appears to be
content to climb a wall of worry.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 10/07/2004: The upside crossover of
the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Studies are showing positive
momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The
market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the
market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in
the session. The next upside target is 1150.75. The market is approaching
overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around
1147.80 and 1150.75, while 1st support hits today at 1137.80 and below there at
1130.75.
SP EMINI (DEC) 10/07/2004: A positive indicator
was given with the upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Momentum
studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s
close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains
positive. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The next upside target is 1150.93. The market is becoming somewhat
overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around
1147.87 and 1150.93, while 1st support hits today at 1137.63 and below there at
1130.44.
NASDAQ (DEC) 10/07/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. A positive indicator was given with the upside
crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher
but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was
given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. A positive signal was given by
the outside day up. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The next upside target is 1497.50. The market is becoming somewhat
overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around
1491.00 and 1497.50, while 1st support hits today at 1467.00 and below there at
1449.50.
MINIDOW (DEC) 10/07/2004: Positive momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The
market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st
swing resistance. The near-term upside target is at 10306. The next area of
resistance is around 10282 and 10306, while 1st support hits today at 10194 and
below there at 10130.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December US Dollar finished up 36 at 8865, 14 off
the high and 32 up from the low.
December Euro finished down 0.53 at 122.71, 0.35
off the high and 0.28 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed down 0.01 at 97.67.
This was 0.005 up from the low and 0.015 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed up 0.07 at 79.3.
This was 0.42 up from the low and 0.16 off the high.
December British Pound finished down 0.8 at
176.58, 0.59 off the high and 0.08 up from the low.
December Swiss closed down 0.41 at 79.13. This
was 0.13 up from the low and 0.25 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed down 0.33 at 90.07.
This was 0.05 up from the low and 0.28 off the high.
There continues to be very little in the way of
solid trend action in the currency markets. European economic information was
soft and that started the Euro and Swiss out on negative footing. Later in the
session reports of an earthquake in Tokyo seemed to undermine the Yen and that
left the Dollar mostly unscathed. It is also clear that the currency trade is
given the US Dollar a benefit of the doubt on soaring energy prices as some
think that the higher relative US growth might see the US economy survive $60
crude, whereas the Euro zone might not be so fortunate.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 10/07/2004: The daily stochastics have
crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies are declining,
but have fallen to oversold levels. The market’s short-term trend is negative as
the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market’s close below the
1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The
next downside objective is now at 89.80. The next area of resistance is around
90.23 and 90.45, while 1st support hits today at 89.91 and below there at 89.80.
EURO (DEC) 10/07/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken.
A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar
moving average. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support,
could cause some early weakness. The next downside target is now at 122.10. The
next area of resistance is around 123.02 and 123.35, while 1st support hits
today at 122.40 and below there at 122.10.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
10/6/2004
December Gold closed up 0.2 at 420. This was 2.5
up from the low and 1.7 off the high.
December Silver finished up 0.143 at 7.245, 0.035
off the high and 0.1 up from the low.
October Platinum closed up 6.6 at 847.8. This was
equal to the low and 0.2 off the high.
The gold market underperformed relative to silver
and platinum and that usually isn’t a bullish indication. However, there seems
to be broad based support for all the metals and with the energy complex rising
sharply in the back ground it seems like the market is trying to whip up an
inflationary psychology. Certainly fund buying was noted by a number of Press
outlets during the action Wednesday and that more than anything created the
bullish inflation buzz. However, it was clear from the action that silver was in
much stronger favor than gold and that could be because gold was being held back
by a slightly higher US Dollar.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 10/07/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. Follow through buying looks likely if the
market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart. It is a mildly bullish
indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside
objective is 736.4. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching
overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 731.3 and 736.4, while
1st support hits today at 717.8 and below there at 709.4.
GOLD (DEC) 10/07/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a
slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside
target is at 424.0. The next area of resistance is around 422.1 and 424.0, while
1st support hits today at 417.9 and below there at 415.6.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Copper finished up 2.15 at 142.30, 0.50
off the high and 0.90 up from the low.
The copper market thrust sharply higher in what
appeared to be another round of fund buying with some traders suggesting that
the gains leave the market with little resistance until the 1995 highs are
encountered. It is also possible that some buyers were trying to anticipate the
return of the Chinese players from holiday. We suspect that copper was also
seeing some inflation buying as all metals seemed to be coming into speculative
vogue. It should be noted that copper still has a number of strike threats to
facilitate the frenzied pace of buying.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Crude Oil closed up 0.89 at 51.53. This
was 1.23 up from the low and 0.12 off the high.
December Heating Oil closed up 1.49 at 142.38.
This was 3.18 up from the low and 0.12 off the high.
December Unleaded Gas finished up 2.33 at 137.47,
0.18 off the high and 3.27 up from the low.
December Natural Gas finished down 0.07 at 8.04,
0.01 off the high and 0.15 up from the low.
December Propane closed up 0.00 at 0.86. This was
equal to the low and equal to the high.
The energy complex once again managed to add to
the overnight gains in the face of the weekly inventory readings. While the
inventory readings weren’t that bullish they did continue to show a tightening
of product stocks and that is all the market needed to propagate the upside
tilt. It seems that the decline in distillate stocks kicked up the concern of
winter tightness. Even the government fostered the bullish attitude during the
action by suggesting early in the day that winter heating were set to post
double digit percentage increases in the coming winter. Therefore, the bull case
gets more support and the specs were drawn into the fray. Adding to the upside
action Wednesday were reports that El Nino patterns were increasing the chance
of a cooler than normal US winter ahead.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (DEC) 10/07/2004: The rally brought the
market to a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought
territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close
above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend.
Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture
is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The
near-term upside target is at 52.60. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is
approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 52.20 and
52.60, while 1st support hits today at 50.86 and below there at 49.91.
UNLEADED (DEC) 10/07/2004: The market rallied to
a new contract high. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered
overbought levels. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above
the 9-day moving average. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance
number is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 140.14. The 9-day RSI
over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of
resistance is around 139.19 and 140.14, while 1st support hits today at 135.75
and below there at 133.25.
HEATING OIL (DEC) 10/07/2004: A new contract high
was made on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in
overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The outside
day up is somewhat positive. The market setup is supportive for early gains with
the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at
144.91. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The
next area of resistance is around 144.03 and 144.91, while 1st support hits
today at 140.73 and below there at 138.32.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Corn finished up 2 3/4 at 207 1/4,
1 3/4 off the high and 4 up from the low. March Corn closed up 3 at 218. This
was 4 up from the low and 1 off the high.
The lower opening failed to generate new selling
interest and the trade psychology appears to have turned a little more positive
with strength in other commodity markets signaling a period of inflation ahead.
Follow-through technical buying helped confirm a technical reversal low from
yesterday (contract low and higher close) which might attract additional
technical buying and short-covering if resistance levels are violated. Funds
were noted buyers of near 6500 contracts into the mid-session. Taiwan bought
112,000 tons of US corn overnight. Corn prices appear cheap to international
money managers and the market is sitting with an enormous net short position of
the speculator. The higher close yesterday after hitting a contract low and
after absorbing huge production forecasts for next weeks USDA crop production
report may have spooked fund shorts and short-covering seems active on the floor
again today. With precious metals trading inflationary expectations on the CBOT
floor today for the opening of these new contracts, the outside influence may
also be considered a supportive factor. Commercial buying in corn was also noted
on the run to the highs of the day. Weekly export sales, released before the
opening, are expected to come in near 850,000-1.15 million tons as compared with
905,500 tons last week. Support for December corn moves up to 206 and 203 1/4
with 210 3/4 and 218 1/2 as resistance.
Technical Outlook
CORN (DEC) 10/07/2004: Daily momentum studies are
on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push
through the 1st swing resistance. The market’s short-term trend is positive on
the close above the 9-day moving average. Market positioning is positive with
the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 212 1/4.
Daily studies suggest buying dips today. The next area of resistance is around
210 and 212 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 204 1/2 and below there at 201.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
10/6/2004
November Soybeans finished up 2 1/4 at 526 1/4, 7
1/4 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 1 1/2 at
534. This was 5 up from the low and 7 off the high.
December Soymeal closed up 0.4 at 156.7. This was
0.9 up from the low and 2.1 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished down 0.07 at 21.09,
0.48 off the high and 0.04 up from the low.
The market saw commercial buying in the soybeans
and continued interest in oil from commercial traders, and the uptick triggered
a steady flow of short-covering to support strong gains into the mid-session.
Funds were noted buyers of near 3500 contracts into the mid-session. Keep in
mind, the last Commitment-of-Traders report with options showed that speculators
were holding a record net short position. The market absorbed huge crop
estimates yesterday and managed to close above the opening and the commercial
buying today was enough to support. Crushers appear to be short bought on
inventory and producers do not seem to be in any hurry to sell with the benefit
of government programs to protect against a declining price structure ahead. As
a result, the commercial may need to bid up prices to a point of securing more
inventory. The surge higher in palm oil, energy markets, metals and the CRB
Index over the recent past have been bullish outside factors which are also
beginning to eat into the bearish psychology for grain markets. Stats Canada
pegged the canola crop at 7 million tons which was at the low end of trade
estimates and down from the previous forecast of 8.24 million tons. Weekly
export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near
750,000-900,000 tons for soybeans, 75,000-175,000 tons for meal and 5,000-10,000
tons for oil. Support for November soybeans moves up to 522 1/2 and 520 with 539
1/2 and 547 1/2 as next resistance.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (NOV) 10/07/2004: The stochastic indicator
is rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support higher
prices. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed
over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside target is at 538 3/4. The next
area of resistance is around 532 1/4 and 538 3/4, while 1st support hits today
at 520 1/4 and below there at 515.
MEAL (DEC) 10/07/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The daily closing
price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside
objective is 154.0. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted with the
RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 158.2 and 160.0, while 1st
support hits today at 155.2 and below there at 154.0.
BEANOIL (DEC) 10/07/2004: The stochastic
indicator is rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support
higher prices. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on
the defensive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The
next upside target is 21.72. The next area of resistance is around 21.35 and
21.72, while 1st support hits today at 20.83 and below there at 20.68.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Wheat finished down 4 1/4 at 302, 5 1/2 off the high
and 1 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 4 1/2 at 314. This was 1 1/4 up
from the low and 5 off the high.
The market was pushed lower early on continued
concerns for a large world crop and from ideas that the market was overbought
after yesterday’s strong gains. Speculative buying off of the key reversal
yesterday, however, helped to generate more spec buying and fund short-covering
to support a test of yesterday’s highs. Liquidation of wheat/corn spreads and a
lack of new buying interest from speculators helped trigger the weakness in
December wheat into the close in spite of strength in the other grains. The
surge in world commodity prices have also left an inflationary tone for the
market and could be making world money managers a little more nervous over
holding large short positions in any commodity market, even markets in a
downtrend. Canadian Ag officials pegged the crop at 24.46 million tons which was
seen as supportive and below trade estimates for the report which averaged 25.4
million tons and below the previous Stats Canada estimate at 25.62 million tons.
Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near
450,000-600,000 tons as compared with 470,800 tons last week. December wheat
support comes in at 301 1/2 and 299 with 307 1/4 and 315 1/4 as next resistance.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (DEC) 10/07/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market’s close
below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains
negative. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the
defensive. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The
next downside objective is now at 296 3/4. The next area of resistance is around
305 1/4 and 309 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 298 3/4 and below there at
296 3/4.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
10/6/2004
December Live Cattle closed up 0.05 at 88.87.
This was 0.32 up from the low and 0.32 off the high.
November Feeder Cattle finished up 0.07 at
111.82, 0.42 off the high and 0.42 up from the low.
December cattle closed slightly higher on the
session but below the opening after hitting the highest level since September
16th. Boxed-beef cutout values (600-750 choice) were down $1.05 on the day at
mid-session to $132.84 as compared with $137.40 last week at this time. The
premium of futures to the cash market and weak packer margins seem to be
limiting factors for the bulls. Slaughter came in at 124,000 head as compared
with trade estimates at 123,000-126,000 head and 128,000 head last week. Hopes
that cash cattle will begin to move higher by late in the month after the
upfront supply has cleared up helped support and traders saw commercial demand
for the October deliveries as supportive to the market as well.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (DEC) 10/07/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with
the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 89.520. The
next area of resistance is around 89.200 and 89.520, while 1st support hits
today at 88.570 and below there at 88.250.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
10/6/2004
December Lean Hogs closed up 1.05 at 66.80. This
was 0.95 up from the low and 0.30 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished up 1.37 at 97.97,
0.42 off the high and 1.47 up from the low.
December hogs managed to rally 105 points and
pushed over yesterday’s highs finding support from the stiff discount of futures
to cash and from talk that the 625 point break off of the September 24th highs
may have more than accounted for the weak cash trend. In fact, the basis level
has reached an extreme. It is the time of the year when the December discount to
the cash market has a tendency to narrow, yet the spread has widened to well
outside of the historical norm. As a result, the chart pattern may look very
bearish, but the market could run out of aggressive new sellers soon if the
spread widens further. The spread narrowed during October last year and for the
5-year average and in both cases the futures moved to a premium to the cash
market by early November. The CME 2-Day Lean Index for the period ending October
4th was at 79.32, and October futures closed at 66.80 for a spread of 12.52 or
1252 points in futures. Slaughter came in at 392,000 head as compared with trade
estimates at 392,000-396,000 head and 400,000 head last week. Weekly average
weights for the week ending October 2nd came in at 262.7 pounds from 262.1
pounds the previous week and 262.6 pounds last year at this time.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (DEC) 10/07/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signal
for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. A
positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next
downside objective is now at 65.400. The next area of resistance is around
67.400 and 67.870, while 1st support hits today at 66.170 and below there at
65.400.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Cocoa finished down 18 at 1406, 13 off
the high and 4 up from the low.
The cocoa market slipped to yet another new low
for the move and would seem to be at least temporarily entrenched in the
downside pattern. With the chart violations it was not surprising that some
small specs were being forced from the market. With the 2004-2005 cocoa campaign
expected to start soon it is possible that impending supply is putting near term
pressure on prices. The Press did report industry buying again but apparently
the buyers were outnumbered by the small spec sellers. It is clear that ongoing
protests against French troops at the Ivory Coast isn’t providing much in the
way of support to prices.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 10/07/2004: Momentum studies are
still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal
action if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close
remains below the 9-day moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative
with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now
at 1392. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30.
The next area of resistance is around 1414 and 1425, while 1st support hits
today at 1398 and below there at 1392.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
December Coffee closed down 0.50 at 77.65. This
was 0.60 up from the low and 1.15 off the high.
The coffee market managed an upward probe in the
action Thursday and that seemed to discourage the bears temporarily. However, it
would seem that small spec traders are concerned about their long positions and
could be easily forced from the market. It is also possible that coffee could
begin to see a benefit from fund rotation as the funds are seemingly becoming a
little more action and are looking for markets that are undervalued
historically. However, holding back prices are concerns that Vietnam producers
are preparing to sell forward or at least hedge their production. The market is
being very watchful of conditions in Brazil as some traders remain concerned
about dryness. On the other hand a front is expected in on October 10th and that
could serve to kick up selling pressure.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 10/07/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the
9-bar moving average. The daily closing price reversal down is a negative
indicator for prices. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a
mildly negative setup. The next downside target is 76.05. The next area of
resistance is around 78.50 and 79.50, while 1st support hits today at 76.80 and
below there at 76.05.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
March Sugar closed down 0.10 at 8.95. This was
0.03 up from the low and 0.11 off the high.
The sugar market continued to mark time on the
charts and has forged a quasi consolidation pattern just under the September
highs. An EU export tender which is expected to be rather sizeable continues to
weigh on the market. We also have to wonder if active fund interest in other
markets, without follow through fund action in the sugar market is disappointing
some sugar longs. Apparently there is an ongoing rift between Russian and
Belarus with Belarus currently capable of exporting white sugar to Russia
without a duty if that sugar is made from domestic sugar beets. However, the
Russians are still putting an import duty Belarus sugar and that has caused a
rift as the two countries move toward complete open trade.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 10/07/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day
moving average. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a
moderately negative setup for today. The near-term upside target is at 9.11. The
next area of resistance is around 9.02 and 9.11, while 1st support hits today at
8.88 and below there at 8.83.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
10/6/2004
October Cotton finished up 1.48 at 50.35, equal
to the high and 1.05 up from the low.
The cotton market has managed to respect recent
support on the charts but can’t seem to get a consistently bullish theme in
place. Expectations for the weekly export sales call for 140,000 to 200,000
bales compared to 212,800 bales last week. Forecasts of some rain in West Texas
provided some support to prices but it would seem that some forecasters think
that the region might see more rain events over the coming week. Consistent rain
over the coming 7 days would be the first threat against the best crop the US
has. The cotton market recently discounted cotton damage in the East because
they thought that the Texas crop was golden. However, if the residual damage
from the passing front was notable that could provide a little more near term
support to prices.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 10/07/2004: Daily stochastics are
showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move
higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The market’s short-term trend is
positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The daily closing price
reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market positioning is
positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside
objective is at 49.53. Short-term indicators suggest buying dips today. The next
area of resistance is around 49.16 and 49.53, while 1st support hits today at
47.77 and below there at 46.74.