Here’s why I’m expecting a big move
Friday’s session began in volatile fashion from
the moment
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) delivered a reality check to frothy bulls, and did not cease
until the final trade at 4:15pm EST. The day essentially closed where it opened,
but the swings in between were something to behold.
ES (+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 futures opened near the S1 value
(dashed green) and bobbed between there and the pivot point until noon time buy
programs vaulted price levels up to R1 and then R2 values. Once the programs
kicked off, price action immediately sagged as buyers evaporated while sellers
took over.
It was ridiculously easy to book at least +4pts
net on just a portion of those swings, with 15pt ~ 20pt profit potential
intraday clearly possible. Gotta love this type of volatility… and I’d guess
there will be plenty more to come.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 futures traded similar swings with
slightly muted ranges compared to S&Ps. Still a day filled with solid profit
potential, any way we look at it. The swings both up and down were sharp but
very tradable. In the end they closed on session lows, same as all other emini
symbols.
ES (+$50 per index point)
That daily candle painted on Friday is a
bearish gravestone doji, smash down bar or any label one wishes to apply. It
should lead to lower daily closes ahead… we’ll soon see if the stubborn bulls
lost a little nerve when Friday’s midday ramp clearly orchestrated for the
lightest volume period got sold into with reckless abandon.
Both the 1277 and 1273 magnets are viable
targets for today, should the selling resume.
ER
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 still holds higher ground, being
the greenest grass in bullish pastures since the last real lows in late 2002.
Still sideways since late January, absolutely no progress since then as we all
await the next real trend move to begin. Look for 717 zone to be a strong magnet
of attraction with any continued selling to come.
Summation
The
week ahead includes futures rollover on Thursday, where current March
emini contracts are replaced in the pit by June contracts as front-month
symbols. This is also the week before triple-witch expiry at the end of
next week. Look for Wednesday and/or Thursday this week to make some big
directional moves, possibly huge. That is normal protocol for rollover
weeks, following the past two weeks of sideways volatility gyrations. We
have some explosive sessions coming along in our near future, I’d guess
nearer to us now than many traders might think.
Trade To Win
Austin P
(Online video clip
tutorials…
open access)
Austin Passamonte is a full-time
professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity
options and commodity markets.
Mr. Passamonte’s trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an
intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.