Here’s Why The Glass Is Half Full
In my
last report, I talked about the half-empty glass...sentiment is
awful. Today, I am going to talk about the half-full glass…the technical
condition of the market remains in not only good shape…but in very good
shape.
To be short and to the point:
Every pullback has been short and controlled. Volume has been light on the
pullbacks.
More and more charts are setting up for a potential breakout of range. I am
seeing a ton of long low-level and mid-level bases.
The NEW HIGH LIST continues to be large while NEW LOWS can hardly be found.
The technicals are primary…sentiment is secondary…so
you have to give the market the benefit of the doubt…and if the Dow breaks
above 8642…with the S&P breaking above 940 and most importantly, the SOX
breaks above 357, then you have another leg up. I do not want you to be short.
I have been testing shorts on my own…with fake money…and even some of the
worst charts get stopped out. I do believe that ultimately the market will
have to deal with sentiment, but until the technicals turn…
Finally, I am being asked daily as to how long this rally could last. After
all, I still believe we are in a broad, longer-term bear market with
“mini-bulls.” I believe it is the complete opposite of the 1982-2000
period where you had a big bull and mini-bear markets. My answer is simply
that I don’t know. I do know that every time a market tops, it gives several
clues beforehand.
Gary Kaltbaum