How I Rode TASR From 55.80 to 99.80
I’m a technical, swing trader with a background in the sciences that prepared me
to look at charts and analyze data. While my personal trading is short-term
oriented (my last 488 trades averaged a 7-day hold period), I insist on trading
only fundamentally sound stocks. In this report, I’ll detail the TASR trade as
it evolved over a month in 2004.
TASR was a worthy trade because, at the time, it represented a good combination
of fundamentals and value. Technically, as evident in the chart below, it had
been consolidating but was now ready to take off when TSM recommended buying
TASR at $55.80 on the basis of both fundamental and technical arguments. Forty
days later on 4/8/04 it closed at $99.80. Just so you’re aware of my
motivations, I’m not blindly making stock picks in my daily TripleScreenMethod
report. My
primary purpose is to find opportunities to trade my own accounts: from 2/26/04
through 4/8/04 during the period of this trade, I traded $2,930,646 in TASR’s
shares and option contracts. I’m not just talking about it, I’m doing it too.
The encircled numbers referenced below document the trade.
Published TASR Trade Recommendations
1 — 2/27 – Buy signal on 2/27/04 at $55.80
2 — 3/2 – Discussed potential bullish result from short squeeze
4 — 3/10 – $83 price target set while trading in the mid $50s
5 — 3/18 – Pointed to need for additional stock split and likelihood of
option introduction [4/6 TASR declared 2 for 1 split on 4/29]
7 — 3/23 – Outlined option strategies to hedge risk
9 — 4/5 – Identified Fibonacci Reversal Point
This series of trades was initiated with the following TSM Daily Report
recommendation (2/27/04):
Company Fundamentals: TASR continues to perform with quality earning’s based
criteria: Zacks ranks it a 2; top fund interest increased from 7 to 18 over the
past four quarters; no long term debt. Its earnings and revenue growth
demonstrate the rapid early growth characteristic of super companies: from 3/03
to 12/03 quarterly earnings growth was 200, 200, 900, 999%, respectively, while
revenue grew 43, 53, 217, and 282% to $10.8 million in the last quarter.
Three factors support TASR’s price-growth potential: (1) each of the past four
quarters produced a large earnings surprise: 200, 50, 60, and 58.3% most
recently; (2) the float turns completely over every 1.5 days (a recipe for rapid
price growth and another stock split soon—