I Urge You To Do This…
I wanted to spend some time on something
different today.
If you have been a follower of this column since I started, you have a good idea
of how I think and what I look for. Yes, it’s a little psychotic but it has
worked for me. Do you remember through the whole bear market what I used to say
about the eternal bullish crowd? I was less than flattering. I was and still am
simply amazed as to how the highest-paid people in my industry would miss the
worst bear market in 70 years and not admit it. You know the names…Abby, Ned,
Joe and the like.
In
fact, when you hear them talk now, you would not even know that the Nasdaq 100
dropped a meager 85% and is still down over 70% from the high. ABBY actually
blames the bear market on the investor. Yes, it’s all our fault. She is doomed
to failure because she has not admitted her mistakes. She will always be, in my
opinion, the poster child for the “broken clock” syndrome. I bring this up
because neither you nor I have ever experienced a bear market of such magnitude.
I have been curious to see the reactions of all the geniuses on Wall Street as
the market has made the turn from bearish to bullish mode…and yes, nothing has
changed.
First off, the bulls are still bulls. In fact, I believe if the Dow went to
1000, the bulls would still be bullish. Hey, if the 85% drop in the Nasdaq 100
didn’t sway them, nothing will. Just like the bulls held on tight, I wanted to
know what all the bears would be doing when the market decided to have a bull
leg…and guess what? The bears that got it right for the past few years are
staying bearish…and their voices get louder as the market goes higher.
Overvalued, extreme bullish sentiment (which I have been guilty of talking
about), Japan, ticks, trins, vix, vxn, qqv, Mars in conjunction with Pluto…you
name it. The bears are now talking like the bulls during the big bear market.
Very simply, they are not listening to what the market is saying. They are
harping on opinion. Nothing more, nothing less. The bears may be right. The
market may top today and go do the slow death routine…but that does not change
the moral of this writing.
The moral and lesson of the story which I am learning more and more every day:
LET THE MARKET BE YOUR GUIDE. Just like the bulls
stayed bullish all the way down, I believe the bears will stay bearish no matter
what the market does. The Nasdaq could go back to 5000… (no, it’s not) and
they will just harp about the second bubble while missing the whole move. I
cannot say it louder or clearer. I am writing this because of my own faults and
failures. The only way to learn is to become your own biggest critic. Yes, my
email service is now sizzling but it took a while for me to believe in what
I was seeing because I had not seen such action in a long time. Just remember,
for the better part of three years, everything, except shorting, failed.
I urge you to do what I did over the recent holiday weekend. I read “How to Make
Money in Stocks” by William O’Neil for the 28th time, and “Stan Weinstein’s
Secrets For Profit In Bull And Bear Markets” for the 23rd time. They simply
teach you to listen to the tape and to drown out all the noise.
NOISE IS BAD.
Gary Kaltbaum