Intraday Charts

December 14, 2000
Kevin Haggerty

Owing to
technical difficulties associated with the new Yahoo! voice system, Kevin
Haggerty’s audio commentary is unavailable today. We apologize for any
inconvenience.

The S&P 500 had a
travel range of 52 points or 3.7% by 11:05 a.m. It advanced 9 points on the
first two bars, declined 13 points in six bars, advanced 11 points in three bars
and then declined 19 points in 10 bars. From
the 11:05 a.m. bar, it was a downtrend for the remainder of the session, with
lower highs and lows.

The NDX 100 closed at 2749
vs. its intraday low of 2741, and this was a confirmed three-bar reversal
pattern down. It also confirmed 2991 as the most recent swingpoint high. Both
the NDX and SPX met resistance at their down trendlines and 50-day EMAs. Framing
the NDX 100 from the 2426 low to the 2991 swingpoint high, you get a .38 RT of
2776, .50 at 2708, .618 at 2641 and a .786 of 2547.

Doing the same for the SPX
which closed at 1360, you get .38 RT of 1353, .50 of 1342 and .618 1331, in
addition to the .786 which is 1315. As 1389 has been confirmed as the most
recent swingpoint high, and the 50-day EMA is 1379, there is no mystery about
the two upside pivot points.Â

You should keep these alert
zones on your desk, and look for reversal-pattern entries as we get a test of
the 1295 low. The test should at least be to the .618 RT level of 1331. The NDX
100 should test at least the 2641 .618 RT level for a test of its 2426 low.

Yesterday, you again saw
the reason why you should be focused on key alert levels. My example was
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) which was right at the .618 RT level between 151 and 66.43. It
opened at 119.75, hit 120.5, then reversed the open and eventually traded down
to 102.5 before closing at 104 5/8. Nice trade.

Doing your work on the
chosen ones should have put CIEN on your trading plan yesterday. The stock had
advanced 83% in nine days to the key Fib .618 level which was the 118-122 zone.
The stock gave you a basic Opening Reversal and never looked back.

The preparation before the
trade made the trade. Yes, if you follow CIEN every day, you would have taken
the Opening Reversal, but having done your work on the daily chart the previous
day, CIEN would have been on your key watch list as a high-probability trade
selection.

face=”arial, helvetica”>(March Futures)
Fair Value	size=2>Buy	size=2>Sell
21.40	22.70	20.10

Stocks Today

There are no good real setups on the
daily charts. Yesterday’s down in the NDX 100 left only three stocks that closed
above the midpoint, so the picture’s clear where the pressure was. That should
make your focus on the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s as a possible daytrading short today if the
selling pressure continues.Â

Have a good trading day.

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Intraday Charts

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

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