Just What Did I Miss?
Amnesia: Partial
or total loss of memory, usually resulting from shock, psychological
disturbance, brain injury or illness.Â
That’s not my definition, that’s Webster’s. Just what the heck did I miss? Maybe
I am going nuts. Does anyone remember the markets before yesterday’s
huge day?
After a huge one-day rally, all seems forgotten. Now I don’t want to be the one
to put cold water on any rally. I liked that the market gapped up and I liked
the finish at the highs. Upside testing probably is in order.Â
But if I must, I
am going to be the one to jump start everyone’s memory. You see, I am going to be
the one to tell you why the Dow went up 4.23% and the Nasdaq a whopping 8.92%.
It had nothing to do with
(
DELL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), nothing to do with Abby Joseph, and it certainly
had nothing to do with Stone Cold Steve Austin turning heel at Wrestlemania.
Here is why the market
rallied: The first number is from the Jan. 31 close, and the second number is
Wednesday’s close. Keep in mind: This is for two months
and several days, not two years.
|
Nasdaq |
2772.63 |
1638.80 |
-40.9% |
Yes, 40.9% |
|
S&P 500 |
1366.01 |
1103.25 |
-19.2% |
|
|
NYSE |
663.64 |
572.71 |
-13.7% |
|
|
SOX |
732.19 |
463.42 |
-36.7% |
|
|
Nasdaq 100 |
2593 |
1370.75 |
-47.1% |
Not a typo |
|
Biotech |
625.17 |
413.75 |
-33.8% |
How about a few select
individual names?
| CSCO | 37.44 |
13.69 | |
| SUNW | 30.56 | 13.86 | |
| ORCL | 29.13 | 13.66 | |
| YHOO | 37.31 | 12.44 | |
| JNPR | 105.94 | 29.19 | Whoa! |
| JDSU | 54.81 | 13.73 | |
| VRTS | 94.88 | 39.45 | |
| CIEN |
90.06 |
35 | |
| AMCC | 73.5 | 11.31 | Are you kidding? |
| SEBL | 66.31 | 23.88 | |
| CHKP | 101.67 | 42.58 |
|
| XLNX | 54 | 30.38 | |
| CMVT |
113.31 |
45.82 | |
| GLW | 56.71 | 19 | |
| AOL | 52.56 |
35.15 |
You say you want some non-Tech? OK!
| MWD | 84.80 | 45.26 |
| MER | 72.5 | 51.72 |
| GS | 113.75 | 77.53 |
| LEH | 82.28 | 55.35 |
| C | 55.97 | 42.70 |
That’s enough for now. You see, you
combine the very oversold conditions that I outlined in my
last report and one of the biggest two months’ trashing in history and you
end up with the potential for a powerful rally combination. I really want this
to be the bottom. I swear, I swear, I swear! But…I can’t help you just yet.
Maybe it is the bottom. My problem is that I don’t measure markets by a day. You
shouldn’t either. Do you remember Jan. 3? I do. Another gigantic rally and a
couple of weeks later, bit the dust…and that day had volume. Yesterday’s
volume was suspiciously very light for such huge gains. It certainly leaves some
doubt as to the institutional conviction.
I also need to add that in my Jan.
8 report, I said, “Do you think the markets are going to accommodate
everyone by ringing a loud bell at the bottom?” I didn’t think so then and this
time…well, we will just have to wait and see. I need follow-through, I need
leadership, I need volume and conviction and right now I need some sleep.
This rally remains suspect until it
proves itself….and I just have to tell you it has a lot of proving to do. It’s
a start but it is only one day. Oh, and by the way, the Dow is up a whopping 1%
this week and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are actually down.