Less Than Inspiring

Friday
was the second to lightest
day
of the week, with only 1.015 billion shares, which is 90% of its average and
just 18,759 blocks. The volume ratio was 63, with advancers over decliners +369.
The volume ratio on Nasdaq was 58 on less than 90% of its average volume with
breadth slightly positive. The NDX 100 has advanced three successive days for an
end gain of +4.8%, but only +0.5% over the last five days. Low to high in this
rally so far is +7.2% from 1581 to 1695. The last two rallies have averaged
about 12%.

The S&P 500 is up 3%
the past three days, all positive, but is net-minus over the past five days at
-0.3%, as is the Dow at -0.2%. The major indexes have to do more than that
during this price/time cycle and end-of-the-month scenario to avoid another trip
south closer to the April lows.
The
NDX closed at 1683, has the 1662 minor lows just below, and a 20-day EMA of 1691
and the 1695 minor high right above. There has been a bit of bad news shrugged
off, but price rules and that must rise with the Generals jumping in. The
(
SOX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)

and
(
BTK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
both gave us +2.3% on Friday, and the stocks in these sectors are
providing good daytrade setups on a daily basis, so you want to stay focused on
them.

We’re looking at the last
two days of the month and then several days of potential new-month action, but I
think the rally so far is certainly less than inspiring.

(September
Futures)

Fair Value

Buy

Sell

4.40

5.60

3.20

Stocks
Today

In the Semis,
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
NVDA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
continue to provide the best intraday
two-way action. They set up long today on the daily charts and are up about 15%
during this brief rally led by NVDA, +22% in the last three days. NVDA closed in
the top of its range at 81, but right at its 50-day EMA of 81.91. Yes, there can
be another continuation day, but I would not utilize any first-entry strategy if
it does. I also would be looking to take advantage of any intraday short setups.

Other stocks:
(
IDPH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)

above Thursday’s high,
(
LEH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
above Thursday’s high,
(
BSC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
KEY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
FITB |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
STI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
FRE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
FNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
HD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
LOW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
MDT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
GILD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
. 

Also in the HOLDRs, the
proxies, look at
(
IJR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
, which is the Small-Cap 600 Index proxy and
(
MDY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
which is the Mid-Cap proxy. 

On the short side:
(
INTU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
,
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
LXK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
.

Have a good trading day.

Five-minute chart of
Friday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs

Five-minute chart of
Thursday’s NYSE TICKS

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