Long-Weekend Tuck-In
The S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had a brief early
leg up after the open, ending on the 9:55 a.m. bar, then declined from 1295 to
1281, which was a 1.618 extension of the up leg. This was on the 11:05 a.m. bar
and from there it was a dead-city range between 1286 and 1281 until the 2:20
p.m. bar, when the programs broke it out of the range, closing at 1293.17 or
+0.3% on the day. The extension leg down did give you some second-entry shorts
such as
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
The Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
which finished +2.3% on the day, provided more opportunity as it traded more
geometrically and with more defined entries. After a 1.27 extension leg down
coinciding with the SPX’s 1.618 extension leg, it had a .786 retracement up,
then a .70 retracement down, and then the Travel Range stocks and programs led
the rally into the close of 2003.37. The
rally started from the 1937.67 low. Total volume was moderate at 1.1 billion, a
negative volume ratio and just 122 advancers over decliners. Certainly not the
rally of rallies. FYI, the percentage of NYSE stocks greater than their 200-day
moving averages is now 74%. Outstanding.
The Travel Range stocks
turned green first along with the Biotechs as not many will go out short into
the long weekend. The bias is up today but yesterday was no Generals’ rally. As
a matter of fact, they took some money off the table in the Basics which have
had a good run. They will probably be back in on decent pullbacks but they did
ring the register yesterday in stocks like
(
DOW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
GP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BNI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) in addition to General Dynamics which has declined from 84.28
to a low of 76.70 on just two wide-range bars.Â
The rubber band only
stretches so far. You should watch the short-term road kill closely, and when
the crows leave it will provide opportunity at key inflection points with good
reward-to-risk stops. If they play short-cover/markup today in the Travel Range
stocks, you must have them on your screen. FYI, not one of them traded more than
its 30-day average daily volume after yesterday’s afternoon rush.
Stocks
Today
|
(June
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
2.35
|
 3.60  |
 1.15 Â
|
Travel Range stocks to
focus on:
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
VRSN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MERQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BRCD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QCOM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
In the Semis:
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LRCX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
AMD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
In the Basics, watch
(
AA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
AL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) — they have both pulled back to their recent trading range breakout
levels. Both had bottom-of-the-range closes on wide-range bars yesterday, so you
are scrolling on the intraday charts to see if anybody returns on the buy side.
In the Fallen Angels, watch
(
SUNW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
CSCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Other stocks:
(
C |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LEH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
JPM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (which closed in a tight consolidation at the 200-day EMA and also
above all of its EMAs — just sit and wait for the Generals to take it and then
get on board). Also
(
BAX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SGP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LLY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMGN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DNA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
IBM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
and
(
UNH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).Â
Please note: In yesterday’s
program trading numbers, “Buy” should have been 3.75.
Have a good trading day
and have a great holiday weekend.
Five-minute chart of yesterday’s S&P 500 (SPX) with 8-,
20-, 60-
and 260-EMAs
Five-minute chart of yesterday’s NYSE Ticks