Looking For A Catalyst
I will not go into a long dissertation
about how choppy and challenging the markets have been recently from an HVT
perspective. If you are trading them, you already know this to be the case. At
this point, we simply need a catalyst to:
- Convince buyers that this rally is for real.
- Take out the lows at 767 and strike the fear of God into
traders/investors.
Absent that, the grind, in my opinion, will continue. Witness the Put/Call
ratio during this leg up. For the first time, people thought this rally was yet
another bear market rally. All the other rallies to date were viewed as the
beginning of the new bull leg. Those people got crushed. They may be about to
again.
In going through a lot of longer-term charts last night, it certainly does
appear that that 767 level will be a “double bottom” for the time
being. The recent pause in the market may simply be the fueling up point before
some higher ground is achieved. Look for a move to 906, 912 in the short-run. If
those levels hold, 927 seems like a reasonable target. Beyond that, the picture
gets a little fuzzy.Â
But as traders and short-term investors, that is all we need, some tangible
levels and some nice setups to see us through. Last
night’s service highlighted several stocks poised to make a move based on
their 30- and 60-minute charts. Now we simply wait. If we begin another nice
upward thrust, not only will the “positions” fare well, but I am
confident that that will be the time when some old-fashioned intraday volatility
which is conducive to HVT will come roaring
back.
Key Technical
Numbers (futures):
S&Ps |
Nasdaq |
| 906 | 995 |
| 895 | 988.50 |
| 890 | 981 |
| 886 | 974 |
| 875 | 967 |
| 872 | 961 |
| *866-69* | 954 |
*indicates a level which is more significant
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions. See you in TradersWire.