Minor Cycle Action
Not much
to say about yesterday’s tape
action, other than apathy. The NYSE traded 92% of its average volume at just
over 1 billion shares while the Nasdaq only traded 75% of its average volume
posting but 1.4 billion for the session. The Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)Â finished
+1.7% and at the same time only 16 of the 100 stocks finished above their
midpoint and only six closed in the top 25% of their ranges, four of which were
below $15.
I anticipate a minor cycle
low rally that could begin as soon as today, but there was no indication of any
buying pressure yesterday which usually precedes a move. Maybe an early sell-off
will set the table but right now the S&Ps are slightly green, but we all
know how fast that can change. I also expect a further retracement to the April
lows after a rally, with a 33% chance of new lows. That
is just my subjective opinion and it is the Generals who will decide. If we
don’t get a waterfall down, I will be looking for the tape to start ignoring the
bad news and/or become dull, preceding any substantial run.Â
Downside reference levels
for the NDX 100 are: .618 at 1626;
.786 at 1504. Yesterday, the NDX
made an early run to 1711.45 with 1711 being the .50 retracement to the 1349
low. Then it pulled back to the .618 intraday retracement level and ran a second
time, stopping at 1711.72. The index closed at 1697.05 so we know what the first
overhead hurdle is today. Based on the closing range, the NDX gets going today
above 1700. On the downside,
breaking Friday’s low of 1668 leads to a test of the 1655 swingpoint low which,
if broken, sends it right down to those reference points mentioned before.
The S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
after an early rally, couldn’t get past the 1203 breakdown point which becomes
our initial upside benchmark today. We know where the 1188.74 low is. Downside
reference points are the 1182 1,2,3 breakout support level, then the ..618
retracement at 1171 and the .786 at 1131.
|
(September
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
6.40
|
 7.65  |
Â
|
Stocks
Today
Daily chart setups on the
long side today are:
(
HOTT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DRI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ELN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
TYC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
GD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WPI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WLP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AIG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
FITB |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KEY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CAH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ADBE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
UNH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ADRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AHP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BAX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
GENZ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
TEVA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
On the short side if they
turn red and start to threaten yesterday’s lows:
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MERQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Have a good trading day.
Monday’s S&P 500 five-minute chart
with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Monday’s NYSE
TICK five-minute chart
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