Monday’s Futures Setups
The questionable economy continues to create a choppy
yet tradable
market for traders. Both the Sept. S&P 500
(
SPU2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and the Sept.
Nasdaq 100
(
NDU2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) futures ended positive today.
SPU2 closed at 894.50 up 11.50 or 1.30%. Tech stocks helped fuel the fire
today in the Nasdaq 100. Among the strongest sectors on the day were Biotech
(
$BTK.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Networking, and Semiconductors
(
$SOX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
The semis started off strong when Intel
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) revised its outlook, now in
line with prior expectations. The Sept. Nasdaq 100 closed at 920.50, up 28, a
3.14% increase.
The unemployment rate
dropped unexpectedly to 5.7%, lowering expectations of a Fed rate cut at the
next FOMC meeting on Sept. 24. Prior to this morning’s employment report, a
September rate cut was given 46% odds. Treasuries suffered their biggest
losses in two weeks. The Dec. 10-year note
(
TYZ2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) dropped 275 to
112^245. The Dec. 30-year bond
(
USZ2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) dropped 1’18 to 110^20. Both
treasuries have set up for a possible Turtle Soup Sell Setup.
Dec. wheat futures
(
WZ2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) rallied very strongly this week. This was due
to ongoing weather-related problems in the US Plains states and in Canada. In
addition, Australia is also having its share of wheat crop problems. Wheat
futures prices set multi-year highs this week. On the daily bar chart above, look
at the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is well into overbought territory,
which begins above the 70 reading. The RSI has not been this high in years. While
the market is technically over bought, the fundamental news on damaged crops
could have the market move higher. In parabolic moves, oscillators like the RSI
become much less significant. The next upside objective is at the 161.8%
retracement level at $4.15.
For CVR signals, look at the
TradingMarkets.com Market Bias Indicators
Click Here
Possible
short candidates
Contract |
Setup |
Direction |
Trigger |
| Dec wheat ( WZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
possible turtle soup plus one sell |
DOWN | break below 3.84 |
| U.S. Dollar ( DXU2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Breakdown from slanted triple bottom |
DOWN | break below 106.32 |
| Nov. frozen OJ ( JOX2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Breakdown from head and shoulders | DOWN | break below 101.15 |
| Dec. 30-year bond ( USZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
possible turtle soup plus one sell | DOWN | break below 112^00 |
| Sept 10-year note ( TYZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
possible turtle soup plus one sell |
DOWN |
break below 114 |
Possible long candidates
Contract |
Setup |
Direction |
Trigger |
|
|
Possible Turtle Soup Buy Candidate | UP |
break above .69 |
| Heating Oil ( HOV2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Triangle at high |
UP | break above .7670 |
| Soybean Meal ( SMZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pullback from high | UP | break above 171.10 |
| Soybeans ( SX2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pullback from high | UP |
break above 545 1/2 |
| Sept. Japanese yen ( JYU2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Bullish symmetrical triangle | UP | break above .8615 |
| Oct. crude oil ( CLV2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pullback |
UP |
break above 29.00 |
Please note that while there are
strong trends in some
commodities, one bar or a series of bars forming a setup can sometimes
indicate a contra move for the next day. This contra move may not be
long-lasting — maybe only for a day or two. Trading with the main trend is
always the highest probability trade.
Use stops on all your trades.