Monday’s Futures Setups
Wheat dropped lower in profit-taking after
Wednesday’s big buying spree, when prices soared to nearly two-month highs.
In yesterday’s session wheat closed right at its resistance of 294.22. Today
wheat moved higher in earlier trade then sold off and ended just above its
support (284.78) at 285.00. The decline came despite government projections of
the lowest U.S. wheat plantings since 1972. The USDA pegged total wheat seedings
at 59 million acres, down about 600,000 from last year. Wheat for May
delivery
(
WK2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) plunged 10 1/4 cents or 3.84% to $2.84 a bushel.
May soybeans
(
SK2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) rose 4 1/4 cents to
$4.77 a bushel, enjoying
another run to the upside today. What fueled today’s rally was a bullish USDA
Prospective Plantings report that was issued. U.S. farmers plan on planting less
soybean acres this year. May soybean meal futures have seen a steep uptrend
develop on the daily bar chart. Prices just this week scored a fresh 6.5-month
high. Lower planted acreage in the U.S. and a smaller stockpile of soybeans in
storage make any “weather scare” during the planting and growing season all the
more likely to push the soybean complex markets. However, bulls saw a worrisome
development today with the big “outside day” down on the daily bar chart,
whereby the high was higher and the low was lower than the previous day’s
trading range, with a lower close. If there is good follow-through selling on
Monday, then a bearish “key reversal down” will be confirmed. Also, May soybean
meal futures are technically short-term overbought, as evidenced by the Slow
Stochastics indicator. Any Slow Stochastics readings above 80 signal a market
that is overdone on the upside. The bias is still positive, but be aware of
weakness. May soybeans are on the
TradingMarkets.com Momentum 5 List.
Corn retreated after the Agriculture
Department disclosed estimates on the high end of expectations, which ultimately
will add to the glut on the market. Prospective plantings were put at 79
million acres, with quarterly stocks already at 5.8 billion bushels as of March
1. May corn
(
CK2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) fell 4 cents to $2.02 1/4 a bushel. May corn showed
up on the
TradingMarkets.com
Possible Turtle Soup Plus One Buy Setups.
The gold market bulls
continued higher today. The June gold futures
(
GCM2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) continued above
the key $300-per-ounce resistance. Gold
rebounded from a $301.50 low to trade
40 cents higher at $303.70 a troy ounce. Initial support is at 295.00 and
secondary support is at 290.00. A break below the 290.00 level would be bearish.
The first resistance would be 305.10 and secondary resistance is at 309.40. June
gold is on the
TradingMarkets.com Momentum 5 List.
Arabica coffee futures trading at the Coffee,
Sugar & Cocoa Exchange settled higher Thursday in a speculative-led rally
that pushed the May coffee contract KCK2|KCK2] through its 56.00
resistance level. For the past couple of sessions, we noted that coffee was on a
pullback off the high and were looking for a break above 54.00. On Monday
03-25-2002, May coffee closed above 54.00. It continued higher all of this week
and today broke above 56.00.
Oil futures were mixed. May crude-oil futures
(
CLK2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) advanced 44 cents to $26.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. May Heating oil
(
HOK2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) gained .29 cent to 67.33 cents a
gallon; May unleaded gasoline
(
HUK2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was higher by 0.75 cents to
83.26 cents a gallon. April crude oil, April heating oil and April unleaded
gasoline are all on the
TradingMarkets.com Pullbacks Off The Highs List.
|
Contract
|
Setup
|
Direction
|
Trigger
|
| June Swiss franc ( SFM2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pullback Off High | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â UP | Â Â Â Â break above 61.00 |
| June S&P 500 ( SPM2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pullback Off High | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â UP | Â Â Â Â break above 1150 |
| May pork bellies ( PBK2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pullback Off Low | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â DOWN |
    break below 77.00 |
| May copper ( HGK2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull Back Off High | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â UP | Â Â Â Â break above .7570 |
| May orange juice ( JOK2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull Back Off High |            UP |     break above 93.00 |
Please note that while
there are strong trends in some commodities, one bar or a series of bars forming
a setup can sometimes indicate a contra move for the next day. This contra move
may not be long-lasting — maybe only for a day or two. Trading with the main
trend is always the highest probability trade.
Use stops on all your
trades.Â
Have a Happy Holiday!
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