Mr. After The Fact
What a
difference a day makes, and
that is +9.4% on the Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) from
Wednesday’s 1600 low to yesterday’s 1750 close. The S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) rallied
from the .618 retracement to the 1082 low which was 1168.46 to the 1208.14 close
for a gain of 3.4%. The volume was good at 1.4 billion, the volume ratio
excellent at .71, with 979 million up and 393 million down.
The volume ratio ran 2:1
positive during the early part of the session, then expanded to 2.5:1 during the
last couple of hours. There was broad participation in many sectors which is
positive and, of course, the oversold techs had a big day with the Generals
committing some money and the shorts in stocks like
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
etc., running for cover.
On the NYSE, advancers led
decliners by +773, the best in the last couple of weeks, while the Nasdaq had
its best breadth since mid April. The SOX had buying across the index, gaining
8.6%. We have been there before as
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) started its fifth leg up. Before
this move, KLAC and others had four up and four down. The NDX gained +6.6%
coupled with the SPX +2.4% and Dow +2.3%.
Up days usually bring
excitement to brokerage stocks and they did again yesterday, with the XBD +6.2%.
The BKX ended +2% but selected financials like
(
COF |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
PVN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) did
better. The OSX continued to slide -4.9%. Funny how the schlepps in Congress and
the media still aren’t screaming about $3 gas and calling for Bush’s scalp. What
a difference a few weeks makes.
Actually, they were
probably having dinner with my good friend Mr. After The Fact, who says to me
last night, “What do you think?” After, of course, a 10% up in a day.
I replied, “I think you missed a good trade from a key level that gave you
a high reward-to-risk entry with a stop just below. And by the way, if you
decide to be smart at the 1790-1800 level, call me. I’ll sell you some, no
commission. Thank you very much. Have a nice day.” He
said, “See you, Haggo,” and walked away confused, and decided he would
go back to his software company and dream up the next widget.
You get the drift, and of
course he doesn’t sit in front of a screen all day looking at intraday charts,
etc., to take advantage of early entry. FYI, that’s the major benefit of the
SPYs, Qs, HOLDRs, etc. He couldn’t have bought his favorite “can’t beat the
S&P 500″ fund until the final net asset value after the close. He would
be starting out 10% in the hole to us. Plus the other fund fees, 12B-1s etc.,
not to mention loads because he really is extremely bright with numbers.
Read my last few days of
text for reference numbers on the market, etc., but I must remind you that there
is a minor cycle high that can come into play on Monday July 16, just as July 3
and 10 did and also an option expiration next Friday. The NDX will meet the
sellers at the 1790-1800 level, which is the down trendline from the 2074 high
and the 50-day EMA. Let the buyer beware and sellers be looking for good
reward-to-risk entries with stops right above.
|
(September
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
6.15
|
7.35 |
|
Stocks
Today
After a day like yesterday,
first entry above the previous day’s high is not good medicine, so all of you
daytraders be looking for second entries and/or pullback trades if they set up.
You can scalp the short side, especially on any defined 1,2,3 entries with the
intraday EMAs rolling over.
Stay involved in the semis.
The Generals are — we need them if this is going to go any further. Yesterday
they were big in price but not as big in volume as I thought they should be.
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ALTR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) on any kind of pullbacks after yesterday’s breakout.
(
CRUS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LRCX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QLGC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
In the retail, if they want
to continue to play in there and bottom fish,
(
DG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
WMT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (which had a
wide-range gap on big volume yesterday),
(
HD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BBY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
COST |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Also
(
GENZ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and in the
financials
(
KEY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
FITB |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
COF |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
PVN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). We were in there yesterday — they’re up a
bit obviously but look for pullback trades.
(
BSC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LEH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
FNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Have a good trading day
and a great weekend.
Yesterday’s S&P 500 five-minute chart
Yesterday’s NYSE
TICK five-minute chart
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