My Plan For Today
What
Monday’s Action Tells You
It was a choppy day in the major indices yesterday,
after the initial move up into the 9:50 AM bar on the SPX, then declined the
same amount before going sideways from 11:20 AM until a last hour move from
109.20 to 109.64. There were more new highs for the SPX and Dow, +0.4%, and
+0.6%, with the Nasdaq at 1956, +0.3%, and still below its 2001 Dec 2 high.
The QQQ closed at 35.59, +0.4%, and just under its upper boundary eleven week
trading range high close of 35.97.NYSE volume fell off to 1.24 billion and that
will go lower into this holiday week. The volume ratio and breadth were both
positive at 67 and +818. In the major sectors, the brokers +1.4% and CYC, once
again outperformed at +1.14%. The herd is all chasing the same cyclical stocks
at very lofty valuations that will end in air pockets as they get even more
extended.
| size=2> |
Tuesday
12/16 |
Wednesday
12/17 |
Thursday
12/18 |
Friday
12/19 |
Monday
12/22 |
| color=#0000ff>Index | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SPX | |||||
| color=#0000ff>High |
1075.94
|
1076.54
|
1089.50
|
1091.06
|
1092.94
|
| color=#0000ff>Low |
1068.04
|
1071.14
|
1076.48
|
1084.19
|
1086.14
|
| color=#0000ff>Close |
1075.13
|
1076.48
|
1089.17
|
1088.67
|
1092.94
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.7
|
+0.1
|
+1.2
|
-.05
|
+0.4
|
| color=#0000ff>Range |
7.9
|
5.4
|
13.02
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
| color=#0000ff>% Range |
90
|
99
|
97
|
65
|
100
|
| color=#0000ff>INDU |
10130
|
10145
|
10248
|
10278
|
10338
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+1.1
|
+0.1
|
+1.0
|
+0.3
|
+0.6
|
| color=#0000ff>Nasdaq |
1924
|
1921
|
1956
|
1951
|
1956
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.3
|
-0.1
|
+1.8
|
-0.3
|
+0.3
|
| color=#0000ff>QQQ |
34.87
|
34.88
|
35.57
|
35.45
|
35.59
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.3
|
+0.9
|
+1.9
|
-0.3
|
+0.4
|
| color=#0000ff>NYSE | |||||
| color=#0000ff>T. VOL |
1.51
|
1.41
|
1.56
|
1.59
|
1.24
|
| color=#0000ff>U. VOL |
925
|
752
|
1.33
|
797
|
824
|
| color=#0000ff>D. VOL |
557
|
598
|
209
|
756
|
405
|
| color=#0000ff>VR |
62
|
56
|
86
|
51
|
67
|
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
62
|
54
|
60
|
64
|
65
|
| color=#0000ff>5 RSI |
64
|
66
|
78
|
77
|
81
|
| color=#0000ff>ADV |
1947
|
1924
|
2445
|
1682
|
2041
|
| color=#0000ff>DEC |
1359
|
1302
|
829
|
1574
|
1223
|
| color=#0000ff>A-D |
+588
|
+622
|
+1616
|
+108
|
+818
|
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
+635
|
+370
|
+521
|
+733
|
+791
|
| color=#0000ff>SECTORS | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SMH |
-0.6
|
-0.9
|
+3.6
|
-0.7
|
+.07
|
| color=#0000ff>BKX |
+1.0
|
-0.2
|
+1.0
|
+0.4
|
+0.2
|
| color=#0000ff>XBD |
+1.0
|
+0.5
|
+1.0
|
-0.6
|
+1.43
|
| color=#0000ff>RTH |
+0.2
|
+1.7
|
+0.8
|
-0.2
|
+0.2
|
| color=#0000ff>CYC |
+0.6
|
+0.6
|
+1.8
|
+0.3
|
+1.14
|
| color=#0000ff>PPH |
+0.5
|
-0.3
|
+1.0
|
-.06
|
-0.1
|
| color=#0000ff>OIH |
+0.8
|
-0.3
|
+4.6
|
-0.8
|
+1.0
|
| color=#0000ff>BBH |
+0.5
|
+1.7
|
+0.5
|
+0.4
|
-.07
|
| color=#0000ff>TLT |
+0.5
|
+0.7
|
+0.9
|
-.03
|
-0.3
|
| color=#0000ff>XAU |
-2.9
|
+1.3
|
-0.7
|
-2.7
|
+0.5
|
Trading in the S&P futures was tedious yesterday. There was a Slim Jim breakout
above 1087 which formed from 10:15 AM until 12:45 PM. It ticked up to 1089,
back down to 1086.75, then started to move on the 1:55 PM bar to a 1093 high.
The Slim Jim was at the lower end of the day’s range but the breakout put price
above all of its 8, 20 and 60, and 240 EMAs so it was a legitimate take, but
you probably ended up having to take the second entry breakout if you had moved
your initial stop to breakeven on the first breakout above 1087. This corner
lost interest after the first one
Net net, it just wasn’t a good travel range day
for the major indices. However, there was opportunity in some individual stocks
like the brokers, that were green right from the opening and didn’t give it back
on a contra move like the SPX. One example is MWD, that opened at 56, traded up
to 56.65, above Thursday and Friday’s highs, then consolidated for nine 5-minute
bars between and 56.65 and 56.42, then made a first consolidation breakout to
new intraday highs and traded up to 57.35, closing at 57 (see your 5 minute
chart). LEH was an easier trade as it opened at 73.95, hit 73.85, the intraday
low on that opening bar, and then broke out above 74, which was actually a Slim
Jim pattern including the closing six bars from the previous day between 74 to
73.88. This trade was picked up by some easy scrolling of the brokers and
cyclicals because they had acted so well early.
LEH traded up a point to 75 (see your 5-minute
chart).
For Today
It will get slower today and of course it’s a short day on Wednesday, Christmas
Eve, and also Friday, so in the absence of any terrorist news, this corner will
shut it down into the weekend. Narrow travel range days are non-productive;
you tend to force trades, so unless it’s really compelling, just pass on it.
Have a good trading day
Kevin Haggerty
