Optimism is raging, so here’s what I’m doing…
Here is the current stand I am
taking.
It is a stand that I take right now and is subject to change on a dime.
Right now I am selling and covering. I am moving out of the market by reducing
and trimming current positions. I am gracefully disengaging. I am traveling to
Los Angeles to spend some time at the beach on the other coast. I will be
watching and using the time to map out a strategy for the year-end. I hope for a
sharp correction. Hope is just a meaningless endeavor and a total waste of
energy. Screw hope and focus on the objective reality. Optimism rages right now,
as sentiment is moving toward a conviction that a year-end rally will happen.
The consensus is generally wrong. This is still a neutral market that is
currently flirting near the top and could lose some steam in here. In fact this
is a good time for corrective action to occur setting up a possible year-end
rally merely to adjust what could be an oversold condition. The excess optimism
will be worked off. So why cover the shorts? The shorts are covered in case I am
wrong and the market takes off. I will not be exposed naked on either side of
the equation. I am lighter the short side as well having disposed of most of the
positions and having gained in most of them. What will be examined this morning
are a few good longs and shorts. These are instruments that I will come back to
in the middle of the first week of December. I am nimble and can build in a
snap. This morning futures are down and that is not surprising. I am having a
typical November up nearly 10%. I chose to lock that profit in and am doing so
in stages. Here are the stocks that I am focusing on right now. Here are some
longs and shorts.
Comverse Technology
(
CMVT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 27.21
The stock is ready but will the market let it happen right now. I stuck a toe
in the water yesterday. It was the only stock I bought yesterday. I was a seller
yesterday. It was a good day to sell and book gains and that is what happened. I
bought this one. It was the only stock I bought yesterday. It needs some volume
to power it up to the high made in September. It is less then a buck from that
point. Will the market let it happen? A move above that plateau will enable this
stock to challenge levels far higher then its current point. So I scooped it
back up. It’s about being flexible. It’s about being committed to making money.
Merrill Lynch
(
MER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 67.40
It’s at 67.40 now. Am I a good stock picker or what? Lets be honest about this.
I am a good stock picker. It’s all I do all day when I am in the office and that
is almost always. Next week I am going to the beach and bring with me some very
high quality reading material and get very serious about mapping out the
year-end strategy to end it with double-digit gains for the year. This stock is
one that is helping me get there. I will be honest and tell you that I am
selling it right now and will be on top of it in a pullback after this current
overbought condition is adjusted. Look at the stunning action expressed in its
movement over the last 200,50 and 10 days. Not bad wouldn’t you say. I rode it
up and bought it well and now I am taking it off the table in pieces.
Synopsys
(
SNPS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 19.96
This
stock is getting ready to rock and roll. It has a great base and is trading
slightly above it right now. It is in the same space as CDNS another solid
performer and leader. I own both. As I said I am moving out of the market and
will be completely out on November 29th at the close. I will get back
in employing the year-end strategy that I create on December 5th.
This is a stock that may play a leading roll to enable double-digit returns for
the year. A year in which most hedge funds are struggling to stay above water.
October was a bust. November is a boom. This stock is getting ready to pop and
really needs to move north of 20 and stay there to inspire greater buying power
and higher price points. See the chart? Look at the chart and check the
potential. I am looking at a daily right now. I am looking at the recent action
and like what I see. I see a stock that has the potential and current favorable
odds to climb. The base is solid. It has a long solid base. Just gaze at it with
those eyeballs of yours and see the lovely pattern and lick those greedy chops
of yours and get started building a position. This is a stock that could put a
big broad smile right on your face. It is a low risk try. Place the stop at
17.99.
UnumProvident
(
UNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 22.22
Insurance stocks are hot. Just check the charts out and see the reality staring
you in the face. So if insurance stocks are hot then why not play them. I am
into UNM. I am selling it off right now with the intention of getting back into
it coming into the 21 zone. It’s a little extended right now. Most of the stocks
I own right now are extended. That is the essential reason to sell. Book gains
and let the overbought condition adjust. Place the stop at 20.29.
The Hershey Company
(
HSY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 54.35
This is
one of my best shorts and its time to say bye as I buy it to cover and close it
out with a nice gain. I will re visit it after it bounces up to the heavy
resistance that awaits it up around 56. Forget about it challenging its 200-day
line. There would have to be quite a powerful rally for that to happen. So I am
covering HSY ’cause I just love candy and the price of oil is down so candy
lovers will suddenly have a few extra bucks in their pockets to fill another
need.
L-3 Communications Holdings
(
LLL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 74
The
stock is in sad shape isn’t it? Screw any story and look at the tape and let the
tape dictate the terms of your action. The best action to take regarding LLL is
to sell it short. Can’t get simpler. The stock is in a new decline and is
heading south. Its up a point this year so far and is fading fast. Place stops
at 75.50 and 76.50.
Sears Holding
(
SHLD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 120.15
This is
a good trading stock and the best way to play it is to play it short. Take a
walk on the dark side and get involved in a relationship with SHLD and notice
that it is a good short north of 120. The chance to cover down around 113 is
favorable. The odds are favorable to succeed making money selling SHLD short.
Place the stop at 132.85 for investors. Traders use the 10-day line. The 10-day
line is 117.61. A drop below that level sends a clear sell signal and to move
more aggressively attacking it hard. Then cover if it fails to drop below its
recent low at 112 made a few days ago.
Right
now the futures are down in the post dawn pre market hours. The NIKKEI 225 is
pushing 15k now. It is the best major market in the world right now and I am
still involved in EWJ. The NIKKEI 225 had another rising day. Markets in Europe
are mixed. The world expects a year end rally and November has been superb so
confidence levels are high and managers desperate to find a way to bring home
the bacon have a month left and the push to DOW 11k is in the air. This morning
futures are down. Levels to watch for on the down side, levels that have to hold
to keep this current rally alive are (If the Dow rises above 11k and the) COMP
and SPX 2220 and 1246 then this current rally gets broader and stronger. That is
the big push right now. That is what has to happen for this market to fuel up.
It has to hold the recent lines of resistance. Let’s see what support there is as
a test will take shape today. The RAM is moving to the side as the eagle and the
mule look on with dismay. If the eagle is not careful he might transform into a
turkey and be devoured in a couple of days. The best of all holidays’
approaches. I will drink the nectar provided by the stubborn mule and thank my
lucky stars in the process. Futures are down and the market will open soft and
it kind a matches the gray overcast bluesy day a head. Time for a little BB King
and some tea with a chunky lemon wedge to aid it.
Jack S. Rothstein
Rothstein Investment Advisory Services, Inc.
3600 Chain
Bridge Road, Suite 200
Fairfax VA 22030
Phone
888-343-4825 — Fax 703-385-7232
www.jrmoney.com
— www.wealthcast.com
Jack Rothstein is the
President of Rothstein Investment Advisory Services, Inc. and is a 20-year
veteran stock trader and a money manager.
Mr. Rothstein also writes Wealthcast, a monthly newsletter about the technical
behavior of the markets. He has been quoted on Bloomberg, CNNFn, the Dick Davis
Digest and the Dow Jones Newswire. Since 1993, Mr. Rothstein also hosted
WealthCast, a radio show in the Washington DC area covering the stock market.