Pork Bellies Limit Up, Here’s Why

Crude oil closed at a new 1-week high
but Pork Bellies stole the show, closing limit up today and gaining more than 5%
in two days.

Crude oil
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+0.60% closed
higher despite news Chinese oil imports fell 0.1% Y/Y in June after rising 8.2%
in May and 23% in March and April, on a year-on-year basis. The International
Energy Agency reported oil demand rose by 3.4% in 2004, the fastest rate in 25
years, and is forecasting growth of 1.9% this year and 2.1% in 2006. Heating oil
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+1.17% closed higher for the second consecutive day.

Natural Gas
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-1.29% erased Friday’s rally to hit
a new 3-week low, bucking the trend in the energy sector.

Sugar
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+2.17% resumed it’s impressive rally that
began in early May, hitting a new contract high today. Sugar was highlighted
again in the TradingMarkets.com Momentum 5 list on Friday.

Coffee
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+2.46% opened at the low and closed near
the high, forming a wide-range bar today. Stories were circulating the current
harvest may be smaller than expected.

Pork Bellies
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+2.82% closed limit up (200 points)
and have added and +5.72% in 2-days. Pork Bellies were highlighted TradingMarkets.com
Momentum 5 list on Thursday and Friday. Quarterly hog data released on Friday
was viewed as bullish.

Existing Home Sales (June 2005) – actual 7.330 M (+2.7%)
consensus 7.100 M. The median home price rose 14.7% to $219,000, the highest
level since November 1980. In the Northeast, prices rose, 3.4%; Midwest, 1.9%;
South, 1.1% and West, 5.5%.

Ashton Dorkins


ashtond@tradingmarkets.com