Prudent
The
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s
made the decision early as
they came out of Friday’s range of 57-56 to the downside, and sold down to an
intraday low of 53.5 into the 3:00 p.m. time frame. At 3:00 p.m., it was as if
the Turk showed up as they took the Qs to the intraday high of 57.43 in the last
hour, with what appeared to be major program agendas.
The NDX 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
volume picked up sharply. Before the explosion, some of the semis had been green
all day — like
(
TER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), and
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and they, of course, led
the upside. The NDX 100 rallied from 2151 to 2283, +6.1%,
while the SOX ran +7.6% from a 590 low to a 635 high. TER gained 8.7%, KLAC 8.5%
and AMAT 7.1%.
There are some three-bar
patterns in the semis, with top-of-the-range closes, including the SMHs which
you should watch today for continuation follow-through. The semis are still
locked in trading ranges as they try to base. The SMHs closed at 52, which is
just under the equilibrium level of its trading range for the past six weeks.
When you look at the
intraday low for the S&P 500
(
SPX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which was 1276.29 on the 3:00 p.m.
bar, and then the rally into the close, one would not be wrong in thinking that
the Turk was sent in to defend the previous swingpoint low of 1275. Breaking
1275 takes out the low of the discount-rate-rally day, and that probably would
have generated some waterfall selling, coming on a weak day like yesterday.
Yesterday’s 3:00 p.m. rally
in the Qs, from the extreme-volatility-band level to close at 57.25, left it
alone at the top. If there is no continuation today, take the short below the
260-EMA on the five-minute chart,
and then be ready for an upside-hook reverse if they decide to play the long
game again. A three- to five-bar
pullback that sets up above both the 20- and 60-EMAs might be the play, after
retracing some of yesterday’s spike. If
the QQQs open above yesterday’s high, and then reverse the high, take the short
with a stop just above the high.
Stocks
Today
The rally left us with some
three-bar pullbacks with top-of-the-range closings, so you must be ready for
continuation entry above yesterday’s highs. Because of the spike, I would only
enter on a half position, or wait for a second entry.
Discretion is the better
part of valor in this tape. Pullbacks from yesterday’s highs of .50 to .618 and
then an entry pattern — with corresponding market dynamics — is probably the
better scenario. Let’s see if the Generals want to buy, or if they just want to
observe the Turk or other program agendas.
|
(March
|
||
|
Fair Value
|
Buy
|
Sell
|
|
13.30
|
 14.60 |
 11.80Â
|
Stocks to focus on — and
we’ll stay with yesterday’s leaders: in the semis,
(
TER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
TXN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MXIM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), and also the SMHs.Â
In the chosen ones:
(
NTAP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ITWO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CMVT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
GENZ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SANM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMCC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
JDSU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Least I remind you that they are very fragile.
Other stocks:
(
CSCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
FDC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MMM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
DOW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
Have a good trading day and
don’t forget to book for my February seminar
in Florida.
