Quarter Action
On
Friday, the Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) opened
at 3718 and sank 213 points to 3505 before rallying 5.6% to close at 3701.Â
Yesterday, the index
retraced 50% of that extreme move. The NDX opened at 3553 on a gap, advanced to
a 3775 intraday high, before retracing 50% of Friday’s 213 point range. The
exact .50 RT level was 3611 and that was exactly yesterday’s intraday low before
closing at 3622.
The S&P 500 had a
similar retracement and closed at 1439, below its 200-day EMA of 1447.09. The
NDX 100 closed at 3622, and it was just above its 200-day EMA of 3617.46.Â
The corresponding numbers
in the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s was a close at 90 1/2 vs. a 200-day EMA of 90 1/4.
The semis again led the
techs down, with the
(
SOX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) declining 5%.Â
The overall market didn’t
tell us much with a neutral volume ratio of 48 and 314 decliners over advancers.
Total volume was 986 million with institutional blocks at 21,262.Â
The 200-day EMAs are focus
pivot points for today and because of the wide-range-bar retracements of the NDX
100 and S&P 500, there were not many stocks that closed above the midpoint
and in the top of the range.
This means that your
long-side plays will come mostly from the intraday charts, in conjunction with
the market dynamics, and how the indexes react at the 200-day EMA inflection
points.
As I mentioned yesterday,
continue to focus on the high-relative-strength stocks, because if the Generals
paint the tape for quarter’s end, these stocks will lead and the market makers
and specialists will not get in the way.Â
When it comes, they know
it, and will try to ride the same wave up.Â
If you throw in the
programs to accelerate the action, you could have a good month this week.
I would be very careful on
the short side, especially in the semis, even though there are some textbook
short setups such as
(
TXN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which closed in the bottom of its range on a
wide-range outside bar at new lows.
If you take any shorts in
the semis, keep a very tight stop because, as you know, they can reverse those
lows and rally very quickly, especially the OTC stocks.
With the quarter ending
this week and the Turk lurking on any air-pocket declines, the higher
probability appears to be up.
face=”arial, helvetica”>(December Futures) | ||
Fair | size=2>Buy | size=2>Sell |
19.10 | 20.40 | 17.90 |
Pattern
Setups
Stocks today that almost set up, and
did close above the midpoint or very close to Friday’s highs, are:
(
SANM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
QLGC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CMVT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMCC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (above 200),
(
SUNW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (above Friday’s
high),
(
SFA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AUD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and SCMR (above Friday’s high).
On your intraday charts, look for some
oversold bounces in
(
BRCD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SEBL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and also
(
NTAP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Have a good trading day.
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