Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Wow…talk about roller coasters! Talk about Prozac! Some thoughts in and out of the markets.
If I was baseball commissioner, I am calling a perfect game. I am making like the first Superman movie where Superman reverses the rotation of the earth in order to save Lois Lane.
[Commissioner Bud] Selig got it wrong. This is baseball. Not the Paris peace talks. A young man EARNED the 21st perfect game in history. I repeat…in history. Give it to him. No one would have died and the world would not have ended with the right decision. Speaking of that event…parents, use Armando Gallaraga and his actions as a teachable moment for your kids on the word “sportsmanship!” And kudos to the ump for “manning” up the way he did.
Mr. President…how about another teachable moment for you. On Wednesday, you stated that “we expect to see strong job growth in Friday’s report!” VP Biden echoed that also on Thursday. Come Friday? Take out census workers and the report was abysmal.
You obviously knew the number which on the surface, looked good…but did not realize Wall Street looks not only at the number but what is underneath the number. Your comments on Wednesday lifted the market. On Friday, reality sank the market. The moral of this story is that as the head honcho, top dog and big cheese, never ever ever interpret the numbers as good or bad before they are out. Wall Street is the final arbiter…and Wall Street spoke loud and clear.
And on another note. You shouldn’t insult Wall Street’s intelligence by coming out Friday touting a bad job’s number as positive.
As far as the market:
If I wrote to you on Thursday, I would have told you that Wednesday was a follow through day as the NASDAQ was up over 2% on heavier volume than the day before. But I would have also told you to go slow. After all, volume was still tepid. After all, by my count, 80% of the market at a minimum, still looked gross.
After all, the DOW and S&P were still below the all-important long-term moving average. I would have told you to probe but to let the market prove itself…not just in one day. I would have also told you that not every follow through day has led to a new bull but every bull has been preceded by one. I would have also told you that if serious selling/distribution show up in the first few days after a follow through day, statistically, it would mean this move ain’t going to work.
On Friday, the market was smoked as the built in expectations that the President put out to investors across the globe, did not come to fruition. I am not blaming the President but I am blaming his financial handlers more as they are supposed to know better and give better advice. Obviously not. And these guys are running the country? The bottom line is the nascent rally looks to be already over as stiff selling has already taken over.
Technically, all major averages, most sectors and a ton of stocks are putting in inverted handles. On top of that, I find it quite negative that the DOW and S&P failed at the 200-day average. For me, this long term moving average marks bull and bear. There is just not much good I can say here. Tops in the market usually take time. This one happened in a nanosecond and as of this second, has not let up. A break below recent lows would just add to the negatives and would most definitely invite more selling. About the only things looking good here are GOLD…but not GOLD STOCKS…and AIRLINES. After that, not many groups to munch on.
Lastly, I am very very worried about what we are reading about on a daily basis. I am still in the camp that the Bernankes and Geithners of the world have no clue. Their only answer continues to be more and more printing of money, not just here but they have also convinced everyone else around the globe that the only answer is more debt. All they do is create more problems and more bubbles…but most don’t seem to care.
We are now watching Europe implode as the old line that “socialism eventually runs out of other people’s money” continues to wreak havoc. A chart of the Euro tells you everything you need to know. I have been telling you for years that if they don’t stop, markets will eventually make them stop…and unfortunately, we are now at that point. Keeping fingers crossed this doesn’t unravel but not sure how that can’t happen. It’s not just Greece.
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