Recapping The Year, Plus, Here Are My Open Positions
Today will be my last
column for the year; I will resume my commentary on Jan. 5.
Tomorrow’s piece will be done by my faithful trading colleague, Bo Harvey.
I will conclude this year with a few brief
observations and comments, as well as reviewing the present game plan and
positions.
As we all know, 2003 was a challenging year.
Volatility continued to contract, bullets were done away with, and a slow grind
persisted for much of the year. The good news: It was tradeable, if you were
patient and selective. Was it a better year than 2002? That depends on who you
ask. For me, no. It was a very respectable year, but below my personal
expectations. The last month, however, has seen a marked improvement in
volatility in certain sectors.
FX became a part of my game plan early in
the year, and has now become a staple in my daily trading plan. I envision it
becoming even more so in 2004. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and
observations with you in the New Year. The e-mails I have been receiving are
fantastic; there is serious interest in this market, it will be a fun
journey. Over the holidays you may want to immerse yourself in an
introductory FX course that has being put together by the good folks here at
TM.
As always, I always recommend sitting on the
sidelines during slow periods, the upcoming holidays will be such a time. There
is nothing better that stepping away from the screens for a week or so and
coming back fresh and with a new perspective. Let’s face it, the odds of
slaying any big game between Dec. 22 and Dec. 31 are pretty slim. As most
traders say, you either have made your year by mid-December or you hang it up
until the following year. This will again be my plan.
Turning quickly to open positions: It sounds
funny talking about that. For two and a half years now, I mentioned nothing
about swing and position trades. The addition of FX has changed that. Yesterday,
I mentioned that I was short the $/Yen (JPY)
at 107.39. I am still short, and as of now, the trade is pretty much moving
sideways. My protective stop is in at 108.10, with a target of 106.30.
I am also short $/Swiss
(CHF) at 1.2557. This was a trade based primarily on the 60-minute chart, but
the daily chart also confirmed the lower time frame. My stop on this is at
1.2645. I will not likely enter any other trades until 2004. Volume is light
and air pockets are likely. In addition, I simply do not see any solid chart
patterns setting up.
So, in short, have a great holiday and I look
forward to another year of thoughts and commentary.
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Keep those FX questions coming.