Recovery Lies In Consumers’ Hands
While I was not able to trade after the first hour
yesterday due to a prior engagement, the traders on my desk indicated
that is was a pretty tame session. The first hour was actually quite surprising
given the gap down. I expected far more volatility. While it is easy to say in
hindsight, it certainly appears that buyers were very willing to step up and buy
down at the 1158-60 level, averting further losses.
With Triple Witching upon us this week, trading can be volatile. However, the
volatility is somewhat unpredictable and difficult to capture. Like most option
expirations weeks, I am not expecting to be very active unless the market
loosens up a bit.
If I may digress a bit from my typical short-term perspective, the Retail
Sales Report was just released and it came in worse than expected. If
this trend continues, it will be very worrisome. The fate of this recovery lies
in the consumers’ hands, and quite frankly, with debt levels at all-time highs
and the savings rate at lows, it remains to be seen how on Earth the consumer
can continue to spend more than they make. Only time will tell, but the consumers’
encore needs to be stunning. That to me seems like a tall order.
I will offer a bit more insight and thoughts tomorrow. Frankly I just do not
have any perspective going into today’s session given that I did not trade for
most of the session yesterday.
Key Technical
Numbers (futures):
S&Ps |
Nasdaq |
| 1201 | 1611 |
| 1192.5 | 1587 |
| 1184 | 1574-75 |
| 1179 (key resistance) | 1560 |
| 1171-73 | 1547 |
| 1163-65 | 1534 |
| 1158-60 | 1527 |
| 1147-50 | 1505 (key support) |
| 1141 | 1480-85 (key support) |
| 1134 (key support) | 1471 |
| 1125 | 1460Â |
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions. See you in TradersWire.