Reflex Bounce
Yesterday
was an early up with the last
hour down again. The program gang gave us another 2:40 p.m. program, this one a
sell, then a quick rally to the 3:10 p.m. bar, before trading down to close at
1106.73 on the SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). This makes it four days of closes within
three points for the SPX, in spite of all the company news, economic
announcements, and hype — both ways. This narrow range of closings will be
resolved shortly.
NYSE volume was average
at 1.35 billion, volume ratio of 46, and breadth +189. The banks, brokers and
(
OIH |
Quote |
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PowerRating)s finished slightly green, while the
(
$SOX.X |
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Chart |
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PowerRating) ended -3.1%. It
was a month-end hat trick day turned red for the major indices, as the NDX
(
$NDX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) closed at -1.4%, the SPX -0.3%, and the Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
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News |
PowerRating) -0.2%.
FYI: Best line I heard from the media yesterday was: "Mary Meeker can still
move markets." If there is anyone still listening out there, get over
it.
As I mentioned in the Feb.
26 text, the
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s had rallied back to the midpoint of the box on
Wednesday with an intraday high of 43.40. It closed below the box for the third
time at 40.36. As I said in the Feb. 26 text, the semis want to work lower.
Unlike the SMHs, Intel
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) couldn’t rally past the 31.95
head-and-shoulders-top neckline or the 200-day EMA, which is 31.34. Yesterday it
traded and closed below its 200-day SMA of 29.25, closing at 28.55. For the past
six days, Intel traded in a range between both the 200-day EMA and SMA. Intel
projects down to the 25-27 level based on the head-and-shoulders measurement and
Fib retracement zone.
In three days, the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s rallied from the .618 retracement low of 33.09 to a 35.51 high vs.
the .50 retracement level at 35.22. That high day was an outside reversal day
down. That brief rally also made a lower high and failed to even touch a sharply
declining 20-day EMA. The NDX is short-term oversold, with the NDX volume ratio
again under 30 at 27 yesterday, and the Nasdaq at 29. That continues to point
out the blue chip/tech divergence, so watch that relationship closely for any
change. The QQQs closed at 33.78
vs. an intraday low of 33.75.
After three days down and
the last two with volume ratios below 30, the NDX is short-term oversold. I
would expect a reflex bounce today from new monies and the re-buying of some of
the dogs they blew out before the end-of-the-month report card. The Generals
very often go in to buy some of these back. Also, the option activity in
technology has turned very negative and that could help a quick reflex bounce
today. My bias is still overall down, after and if we get a reflex in the
oversold techs.
Stocks
Today
There are very slim
pickings as far as daily chart setups. On the longside, look to
(
RTN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
APD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DJ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KRI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
SYMC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Also, if we get an early
bounce, look for intraday long setups in
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
TER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
On the shortside, if the
brokers start to go south, look to
(
GS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
LEH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), but
(
MWD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
MER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) also set up.
In addition, you have
(
XLNX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BGEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
CEPH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Have a good trading day
and a great weekend.
Five-minute chart of
Thursday’s SPX with 8-, 20-,
60- and 260-period
EMAs
Five-minute chart of
Thursday’s NYSE TICKS
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Additional
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